Nick Beams: Report on the world economy in 2006

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Nick Beams: Report on the world economy in 2006

‡ÙË ´Í£ÍLÍ ı¨Ùà Ó˜ Íòı´ÓÍ ›CKÚò ∞øÇ √ÜÏã

GÇ dãv: 2006ô ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã üP Êò ‹PÇ¨Ë

By Nick Beams
28 February 2006

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‡ÙË ´Í£ÍLÍ ı¨Ùà Ó˜àF° Íòı´ÓÍ ›CKÚò ∞ø (IEB) M° MKı£ÇË √ÜÏàFô ¸˘ıK 22 ‹°¡ GÇ dãv ‹OàÓ ‹PÇ¨Ë W´ˆ HÛ≤KÇËäÜ¥ú˜∂. ‡ÙË ´Í£ÍLÍ ı¨Ùà Ó˜àF° Íòı´ÓÍ ›CKÚò ∞øM° ‡¡äH˘Û£˘ dãv ¸˘ıK 22ô ﬁºâ∂ 27 ı¨Û CÜQJô √ÜÏà¨Ó ÔÏ£àFÚ ›vF´ÛLÚ ´Í£ÍLÍ ÍÒà∂ıÇ ËÜCJ° ´ÓCÚ ™ÍÚÙ£˜ò ›ı£ò. ‡ÙË ´Í£ÍLÍ ı¨Ùà Ó˜àF° Íòı´ÓÍ ›CKÚò ∞ø √ÜÏàFü∞ ´ÏMÜ ´Ô£òà ‹OàÓ ›Ûã ‹PÇ¨Ë 27 ™äHÛıKÚ°¡ ™ıOJÏäÜÏ∂. „¨˘Ú ‹PÇ¨ËË¿ã H°˘ò ™Ó£Ïòâ∂ ™ıOJÏä¥ã.

CÙ Ë£ÙÒ£Ë IË ‡ÚòâÓ ‹˜Mô ‡ú˜ ‡ÙË ı˜òÑCiÓã 2005ô 4 ÍÓMAÓ ‡Úòæ ﬁºâÓ¨Ó ‹¥à∂, ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã ÂÜ¥™Ò£àÓàFΩã Òü¡ã ‹¨˘à∂ ™KÚ ™Ó£Nô∂¨¯ ™£º˜£Ó£ÛÉËú ﬁ°¬ã ıΩı£Ë ı˜òÑC ‹¨Ïªã ‚°¯ ∫°ËEäπÇË¿Ï° ﬁâÓ ›á¥ ™Ó£ÏÉAªú˜∂.

‰´Û£äHÚ ÒàFÚ ıÉAJ° Ó¨ÙıÛ£˘ Jean Claude Trichet ¸˘ıK 9ã ´ÓF ıÉAÚ£˜òËú √ÜÏã Â°Pô 2006ã ›á¥ ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£Û ı˜òÑC ËÏâÓ ›á¨ÏMÏ √¥ÓÙ£Ë ´£∞ã ‚°¡ √Pªú˜£ò. „¨˘ÚıòË¿ã ﬁ´Ó Ëºà¨ÓàÓ£° Aòâ∂ ™Ë£á¥ú˜˘ò. Trichet ﬁ° ËºàF°Æ, ÒàFÚ ıÉAÚ£˜òËú "‡ÙË ı˜òÑC ‚°∂ C¯âÓ ›ü¯ôIÇË ´ıËàFô ™Ó£Ïòâ∂ ™Ë£áÆºäÓ£ô, 2005ã ›á¥Ï° ÂäH¥ã´£∂ 2006ô ﬁâÓ ı˜òÑC ﬁ°¬ã Íü¡ ‹FËÒ£Ë ﬁºÇ∞ã ‚°¨Ó Ô£ÉËú ÔãπA´¯£ã ‚˘Ç √Pªú˜˘ò."

ﬁäÆäÜÏ ÒÙòÑCÚ£˘ Ëá´Ì£ÜÏà¨Ó ‡¡F¥à∂ı∂´£ô, Dow Jones ‡¨ÏÚ ™Ó£Nô∂¨¯ ÍÛ£ÍK Ò¡Ô£ú 11,000Ç ËÏâÓ∂ -- ¸®° 2001ô ﬁºâ∂ ﬁâÓ ÓÛà¨Ó ‹∂ ∫Óô∫¨¯Ú£Ë ‹¨Ïâ∂ú˜∂ -- πàÓ£á¥ ıEËà ™Ó£ÏòËú ∫Óô Ô£°Aô 2 ÍÓMAÓàFü∞ã ´ÒÙ£˘ ›Ó£Úà¨Ó ËáÏ H°˘ò ﬁ∂ GËõâ∂ú˜∂. Ë¨ÏCà Ó¨Ï¨ıÚ£Ë Dow 11,000‰ ËÏâÓ´£∂ ‹∂ 36,000 ‰ ËÏÇËÇ √¥ã ‚°¡ √¯äÜÏ∂. ‹àÓ¨ËÚ √ü¡ÇËú ﬁä™£ø∂ ™ıOıºıFô¨Ù; ﬁºâÓ´£FΩã ´Òã´£ÇË£Ë ÔãHÇ¨Ëà ´Ó£ü¯Ò¢ Ô§ÙæA¯∂.

ﬁâÓ ıÛMºÇ∞ã ›áÆô ‹™ÒKÇËä ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã 3.4 ÍÓMAÓã ı˜òÑC ‹¨Ïªã ‚°¡ ËEÇËäÜ¥ú˜∂; Œ´Û£ä∞F 1.9 ÍÓMAÓ ı˜òÑC¨Úªã, ¸ä£° 2.0 ÍÓMAÓ ı˜òÑC¨Úªã, ﬁÉAÙ£â∂ 2.1 ı˜òÑC¨Úªã ‹¨Ïªã ‚°¡ √¯ä¥A¯∂. 2005ô 10 ÍÓMAÓ ı˜òÑC¨Ú ‹PMà∂ú˜ Y˘£, ∞¨¯âÓ∂ 8-9 ÍÓMAÓ ı˜òÑC¨Ú ﬁöı£á¥ ‚åÓÇ√¥ã ‚°¡ ‚Fò£òÇËä¥A¯∂. ™ºG¡ı˘ ﬁÙ£∫ã ‡ÚÛ ‡ú˜∂; ËEäπÇËO°Æ S&P 500 É∞ G¡ı˘àF° ﬁÙ£ ‹FËKäπ 13 ÍÓMAÓÒ£Ë ﬁºÇ∞ã ‚°¡ ‡ú˜∂.

›˘£ô ﬁÇ∞¡AÚË£Ù ÔãHÇ¨Ë £ò¨ıÇ∞ H°˘EJô, bMÛ ›åæä £É∞ ‡¨ÏÚ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ıôΩ˘òËú ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàF° G¨ÙüP Ëı¨Ù ™ÓKMà∂ú˜£òËú. ‚ôÙ£ıüPü∞ã ´ÒÙ£Ë, ‹™ÒKÇË£Mô Ò¨Ù´£°¯ ™ÍΩà∂ÒF GΩ¨ıJ° ü¯£Ç∞¨¯ ™ºAıºı¨Óªã, IËM¨Ûı£˘ ËÏ°≤¨ÒÚ£ô ›ˆÒ¨Ïâ∂ ıºã ÍÒG¨ÙÚü¯ Ó°¨Ò, ÓÜÏÉËú ›AÚ¨ı ™Ó£ÏòÑCÚ£Ë ‡ú˜¨Ó ‹ıòËú ≤ÜÆÇË£ÜÆªú˜˘ò; Âº Ë£Ù ËÜÏàFô ﬁ¨ı IË M¨Ûı£˘ Ò£ü¯à¨ÓÇ ËÜÏ£Úã ´Ó£ü¡MÇ∞ã ‚°¡ã Âº ™ÔºÇËÆ√Ï ´Ó£°¯Ù£ã ‚°¡ã √Pªú˜˘ò. ﬁâÓ ‹ÇË¨¯Ëú ›á¥ ™Ó£ÏÉAÚæÏ° ™ıOıâÓ Ù Ëºà∂Ç ËÜ¥¨ÛËOΩã HÛFLàÓ˘.

Institute for International Economics ‚°¬ã ‹¨ÒäHô ™£º˜£Ó£Û ıôΩ˘Û£Ë ‡ú˜ ›Ïã ´£™Í° (Adam Posen) "Batten down the hatches in case the storm hits" ‚°¯ Ó¨ÙäHô ‚øFªú˜ ËÜ¥¨ÛJô Ëàg˘£ ≈¯£ıO üP Êò Âäπ¨Ò √P "‡ÙËÑ ÍÒG¨ÙÚü¯ Ó°¨ÒJô ÓMòÇË∫ÆÚ£Òô ´Òü™Ë£ú˜ä¥ã FºàÓÉËO˘£ô ™£º˜£Ó£Ûä πÚô ´Ó£°¯Ç√ÆÚ F¯° ‡ú˜∂" ‚°¡ √Pªú˜£ò.

"‚ıºã Ëàg˘£¨ı Ó¥à∂ G¡àFJºÇË ∫ÆÚ£∂; ›˘£ô ‹Fô ﬁºâ∂ M¨˜âÓ Ô£ÍÉËú ËEÍÒ£˘ ∫¨¯Jô ∞¨¯ÇËäÜÆºÇËÙ£ã. ‹´Ó´£ô, ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã πFÚ ıEËä £∂Ë£äπı£Óã ‹ôÙ∂ Ï£Ùò Ò£ü¡∫¨¯Jô FºàÓÉË¨˜™Íå∂™Ë£ú˜ô ‚°¯ ı¨ËË¨˜ π∂äHäÓ£ô „üÏÇ√ÆÚ ™ºã £FäHô ﬁºâ∂ ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£Ûà¨Ó £∂Ë£ÇË´ıáÆÚ ™Ë£ú¨Ë ÔÏıÆÇ¨ËËú ‚¥ÇËäÏ´ıá¥ã."

›˘£ô ‹üÒ£˘ ÔÏıÆÇ¨ËÓ£° ‚¥ÇËäÜÆºâÓ∂. "™ºã ™£º˜£Ó£ÛÉË¨˜ ™Ë£áÏ ‹ÛÍ£ÉËÉËú Ëàg˘£Mô ﬁºâ∂ ÆäH¨˘Ë¨˜ ËüË ´ıá¥ã ‚°¡ MºãH˘£ô, ‹¨ı Óü´£¨ÓÚ ‡ÙË ÍÒà∂ıÒü¯ G¨ÙJ˘£ô „üÏÇ√ÆÚ ´ÍÓÉË¨˜ ∞¨¯äÓüË£˘ ÔÏıÆÇ¨ËË¨˜ ‚¥àFºÇ∞ã."(Financial Times December 28, 2005).

IË ™ıOä¨ÏÚ£Ë ´£™Í° √¯£MÆ¬ã, Âº ™£º˜£Ó£Û Ëàg˘£ „ü¥ã´£∂, GFÚ ‹FË£KËú ‹¨Ó ‚Fò™Ë£ú¿ã ∫¨¯, ≈¯£ıO¨Ú πw Gòı£Ëã ‚Fò™Ë£áÏ´£∂ ‚äÆÇ ¨ËÚ£áÏ´Ó£ ‹äÆàÓ£° ﬁºÇ∞ã ‚°¡ ™£º˜£A¯∂.

Íòı´ÓÍ Ô£ÌÚ GFÚàF° (IMF) ∫°˘£ú Ó¨Ù¨Òä ™£º˜£Ó£Û ıôΩ˘Û£Ë ﬁºâÓ ™Ë°™˘à ´Û£´Ë£ä (Kenneth Rogoff), ¸˘ıK 3ã ´ÓF ™ıOJÜÏ ËÜ¥¨Û Â°Pô √¡ıÓ£ı∂: "™£º˜£Ó£Û ™Íø¨Ò Ë£ÙËÜÏàFô Ô£ã ı£õâ∂™Ë£áÆºÇA´¯£ã ‚°¨Ó Ô£° ∫ÓLô ÂäπÇ ™Ë£ú¿A´¯°. 2006ã ›áÆ° ¨ÒÚÇ Ë£ÜC ™Ó£ÏòâÓ ‡ÙË˜£MÚ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ı˜òÑCÚ£Ë ﬁºÇ∞ã. ‡ÙË ∫ÓhÜÆ° ‚øÑC, ‚á™ÌåÇË£˘ ´Ó¨ı Òü¡ã ™£ºÜËú „ü¡ÒF ›AÚıü¡Ï° ﬁ¨Ìªã´£∂, 2006 ∫øı∂ã ‡ÙËà ´Ó¨ıË¨˜ IË ≤¡≤¡äπÏ° ‡ÚòàF G¡à∂ã; ‹´Ó´ÔÛàFô ‹™ÒKÇË ∏Ëòæã Y˘ ∫ÓhÜ¥ ı˜òÑCªã Íü´¯ ∞¨¯ªã.

ﬁâÓ ÒAõÑC Óºã Ë£ÜC¨Ú ›ÓKÇ∞ã Í£ÓËÒ£˘ ı˜òÑCÇ √¡£¥Ëú „Û£˜Ò£Ë ‡ú˜Ó£Ë ‹ıò ™Ó£Ïòâ∂ √P˘£ò; ›CÚ£M°, ∞Pä£Ë Y˘£M° ‚øÑC, ÌiÇËÇ ∞¨¯æ, cáÏ Ë£Ù ıÜÆMAÓÉËOô ÍKæ ›AÚ¨ı ‹ıüPô CÙı£∞ã. ›˘£ô ﬁ∂ ‹ÇË¨ÓJ° ∫ÆıôÙ.

"™£º˜£Ó£Û ‹Æä¨ÏËú ÔÙà∂Ï° ﬁºâÓ´£FΩã, ﬁ°¬ã √¥ÓÙ£˘ Ô¨Ï∫¨¯ä £FäπÇË¨˜ Ë£µÓΩã ‚OÓ£∞ã. ﬁäÜÆÚLô ‡ÚòâÓ ﬁÏà¨Ó ™Ë£áÆºä∂ ‡ÙËã ∫øı∂ã i¥ËO° M¨ÙË˜£∞ã --ﬁ¨ı Ô¨Ï∫¨¯Ç∞ ™ÔºÇËÒ£Ë ‡á¨ÒJô ﬁä™£ø∂ ﬁºäFô¨Ù. ‹™ÒKÇË£Mô ﬁöM¨ÙËú 2000ã ›áÆü∞ H° 60 ÍÓMAÓã ‡Úòâ∂ú˜∂; Òü¯ Ù Ô£¥ËOô ﬁ°¬ã √¥ÓÙ£˘ M¨Ù ‡Úòæ iÇË∫ã Ë£Ìä¥ıÓ£ô, Âº ÍKæ „ü¥Óô ‚°∂ G¨˘à∂ä £òàÓô ËÆ˘Ò£˘ÓôÙ..."

ﬁ´Ó´£°¯ ∫Ææ¨ÛÇ∞àÓ£° Economist ﬁÓøã ¸®ô 16, 2005ô ‹∂ ™ıOJÜ¥ú˜ ÒFädÜÆô ™Ë£¥à∂ú˜∂; ﬁFô ‡ÙËã ∫øıFΩã iÜÆ° M¨Ù´Úü¯ã "ıÛÙ£üP´Ù´Ú IËä ™KÚ ∞Iõ ´£°¯Ó£∞ã" ‚°¡ ‹ÇËÜ¥¨ÛJô M˜ÇËäÜ¥ú˜∂.

´Û£´Ë£äH° ËºàÓ£ı∂: "‡ÙË GFÚ ∫¨¯ (Global Financial System), ‹Æä¨ÏJô ıΩı£˘ G¨ÙÇ∞ ›Ó£ÛÒ£Ë ﬁºâÓ´£FΩã, ıΩMˆäÓü∞ã ‹∂ ›Ó£ÛÒ£∞ã. ÂøÉ∞¥àÓäÜÆºÇË£Ó ﬁˆäπ £∂Ë£äπ GFË¿ã (Hedge funds- ‚FòË£Ù FÜÏÉËOô ∫Óh¥ ™ÍåıÓ£ô ﬁˆä¨ ∞¨¯Ç∞ã ´Ô£ÇËàFÙ£˘ GFÚÉËú), IËä ÛâÓ ‹˜Mô ‚ÖCJºÇ∞ã GFËú, ËÏ° ËÜÏ£ G¨Ù ›AÚ¨ı ›à∂ÇË¨˜ ‹Oà∂, ∫¨¯´Ú ™ºã ‹øàÓàFü∞ ‡ÜÜ¥ ™ÍÚôÏ£Òô ´£åM¥ã ‹˜Mü∞ ‡ú˜∂. ‡Ó£ÛÌÒ£Ë Âº Ï£Ùò ÍK¨ı ÂÜÆ ﬁ∂ GËˆÙ£ã; ›J¬ã√Ï ‡ÙË ıÜÆ MAÓÉËú ÍÒä¥àÓä¥ÓÙ£ô, ∫ÓhÜÏ£˜òËú ÓÉËú Ëı˘à¨Ó ‹™ÒKÇË£M° "Ó£Ç∞äHÆÇËMÚÙ£ ıEËä ü¯£Ç∞¨¯" £ô ™ÍΩà∂Óô ‚°∂ GËˆÇ √ÆÚ´ÓÚ£∞ã (Financial Times, January 3, 2006).

Ò¡Ô£´˜ ™ıOJÏäÜÏ Ëºà∂ Â°P°Æ, ¨˘£°CÚô ¨ÏãC° ™£º˜£Ó£Û Gºò Ò£òÜÆ° ™ı£ôä, ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàFüË£˘ ›à∂ÇËú GFÑ Íâ¨ÓËOô ‡ÌÛäÏMô¨Ù ‚°¡ã ‹¨ı´Ú ‡¡FÚü¯ Ó°¨ÒÇ∞ Âº Ë£ÛÌÒ£Ë ‡ú˜˘ ‚°¡ã ∞PäHÜÏ£ò.

"‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£Ûà¨Ó ™£¡àÓı¨Û, Âº πFÚ ÒAõÑCÚ£˘ ›á¥ ‚Fò£òÇËä¥A¯∂. ›˘£ô ËEä£˜òË´˜£ ™£∂ı£Ë ÍeàFÚ ´£Ç∞Ëú ™Ó£Ïº™Ò°¡ã, cáÏË£Ù ÔÏäHü∞ „ü C¡ Ò£¡ÓôËú ™ÍåÚä¥ã ‚°¡ã ∫°Ëºà¨Ó ™Ë£á¥ú˜˘ò. ›˘£ô ‚¨ı Ò£¡ã ‚°¡ ´ËÜ∂ √¥ÓÙ£˘ Ú¨˘Ç ™Ë£¥Ç∞ã. ﬁä™£ø∂´£Ù, ‚ôÙ£ã ÔôÙÆÚ£Ë ™Í°¡ ™Ë£áÆºÇA¯∂ ‚°¯£ô, ‹Ó° ™£ºú ‚∂ Óı¯£Ëä ´£ËÇ √¥ã ‚°¡ ´ËÜ∂ã, ‹¨ÓMÏ ∫ÇAÚÒ£˘ ›à∂ÇËú ÓÇË∫¨¯Jô Ëı˘àFô ‚¥à∂Ç ™Ë£ú˜äÜ¥ú˜˘ı£ ‚°∂ãÓ£°. ﬁÓü∞ M¨Ï, ‹¨ı ÍKÚ£ËÇ ËÌÇAô ‚¥à∂Ç ™Ë£ú˜äÏMô¨Ù ‚°∂Ó£°."

ﬁâÓ Ëı¨ÙËO° ›Ó£ÛÉËú ™ÓOı£ËàÓ£° ‡ú˜˘. Óü´£¨ÓÚ ´£Ç∞ ™Ó£ÏÛ´ıá¥ã ‚°¯£ô, ‹™ÒKÇË£M° IËMKı£∞ã ™ÍΩà∂ÒF GΩ¨ı ﬁ¨Ï™ıO¨Ú ÍÒ£OÇË GF ‹™ÒKÇË£Mü∞ú ıâ∂ ™Ë£á´Ï ﬁºÇË ´ıá¥ã, ıÜÆMAÓÉËú ∞¨¯ı£Ë ﬁºÇË ´ıá¥ã, ËÏ˘£OËú, ∞Pä£Ë ‹™ÒKÇË£Mô, ∏ËòæÑ ™ÍÙæË¿ÇË£Ë ËÏ° ı£ÉË Mºäπ¨ÏÚıÛ£Ëæã, ı£ÉËÇ√ÆÚ F¯¬ú˜ıÛ£Ëæã ﬁºÇË ´ıá¥ã ‚°¡ ™ı£ôä ∞PäH¥A¯£ò.

ﬁâÓ "ÍÒG¨ÙÚü¯ Ó°¨ÒJô", "Ù ›à∂ÇËú" ÓÛÇ√ÆÚ Ó¨ÏËú ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàFô ‡ú˜˘. ‹™ÒKÇË ﬁôÙÉËOô ﬁºÇ∞ã GFä ü¯£Ç∞¨¯ Ô£ÜÆ° ‡úÔ£Ü¥ ™Ò£àÓ ‡üàF¨Ú MÏ 7 ÍÓMAÓã √¥ÓÙ£Ë ‡ú˜∂ ‚°¡ ‹ıò ≤ÜÆÇ Ë£ÜÆªú˜£ò. iÜ¥à ∂¨¯J° ËÏ°Ó°¨Ò 1998ã ›á¥ ∫Óô Ë£ô∞FJô ﬁºâÓ, FºäHÇ ™Ë£¥ÇËÇ√ÆÚ ıºÒ£˘ä ∞FJô 92 ÍÓMAÓàFô ﬁºâ∂, ËÏâÓ ›á¥ Õ°¯£ã Ë£ô ∞FJô 126 ÍÓMAÓÒ£Ë ‡Úòâ∂MÜÏ∂. iÜ¥Ç ËÏ° ´Í¨ıÇË£˘ ™ÍΩà∂¨Ë ‚°∂ ‚ÇË£ÙàFΩã ﬁôÙ£Ó ‹FÒ£å FºäHÇ ™Ë£¥ÇËÇ√ÆÚ ıºÒ£˘àF° 14 ÍÓMAÓÒ£Ë ‡ú˜∂. "i¥ËO° M¨ÙËú ‡Úòı∂ G°¡MÜÏ£´Ù£, ıÜÆMAÓã ‹FËKà∂MÜÏ£´Ù£, ‚°˘ ›ı∂?"

"IËä ™KÚ Ó¨ÏËú Óºã ›à∂ÇËú ‡ú˜˘. ›˘£ô Íâ¨ÓËú ‹ıü¨¯ ‹ÍÜ¨Ï ™ÍåA°¯˘. ‚˘´ı Ô£ã „´Ó¬ã Óı¯£Ëä ´£∞ã ‚°¯ ›à∂ ‡ú˜∂ ‚°¨Ó ‹PÚàÓ£° ´ıá¥ã; ›˘£ô Íâ¨ÓËú ‹Ó°H°˘ò ´Ó¨ıÚ£˘ FºàÓÉË¨˜ Ùı¨ËJΩã ´Òü™Ë£ú¿ã ‚°¨Óªã ‡ÌÛ´ıá¥ã." (Financial Times January 4, 2006).

´ı¡MÓÒ£ËÇ √P˘£ô, Âº Ò£ü¯ã „ü¥A¯∂ ‚°¯£ô, M¨˜æË¿ã Ë¥¨ÒÚ£Ë ﬁºÇ∞ã; „™˘Qô ‹àÓ¨ËÚ GËõæ ıÛÇ√¥ã ‚°¯ Ëºà∂ ∫â¨ÓÚ Ë£ÙËÜÏàFô ‹ÍÜ¨Ï ™ÍåÚäÜ¥MÜÏ∂.

‹ÛCÚô M¨˜æËú, ∞Pä£Ë ‹™ÒKÇË£Mô, ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã Óü´£¨ÓÚ ÍÒYÛü¨¯ G¨ÙJ˘£ô Yò∞¨ÙâÓ£ô, ‚öı£¡ ﬁºÇ∞ã? ﬁâÓ M˘£ ¨˘£°CÚô ¨Ïãv ËÜ¥¨ÛÚ£˜ò ‹˘Ü´Ï£ô h™ı˘£ô ËÏâÓ ›á¥ ‚øääÜÏ∂. ‹àÓ¨ËÚ ™ÔºÇËÆJ° ∫° Óü´£¨ÓÚ ‹™ÒKÇË ‹ÛCÚô ∫¨¯ bMÛ YòFºàÓà¨Ó ´Òü™Ë£ú˜ ﬁÚΩÒ£?

"‹àÓ¨ËÚ YòFºàÓã M¨ÛMô ÔÏÇ∞Ò£, ‹™ÒKÇË Í∫Ó£Úã ‹¨ÓäüP bMÛÒ£Ë Mı£FÇ∞ã F¯¬¨ÏÚÓ£ ‚°∂ HÛÑC¨˘ ‹ôÙ. ‹™ÒKÇË£M´Ù£, Òü¯Ú ﬁÏàF´Ù£ ‡á¨ÒJô bMÛÒ£˘ Ò£¡Ó¨Ù ™ÍÚô¥à∂ı∂ ‚°∂ Âº ™ÔºÇËÆ ﬁôÙ£Òô GËõı∂ ﬁô¨Ù. Óü´£∂ ‹àÓ¨ËÚ ™ÔºÇËÆ Y˘£æã ¸ä£¬ã ‹™ÒKÇËÇ ËÏ¨˘ ı£ÉA, ‹™ÒKÇË ∏Ëò´ı£K° ™ÍÙ¨ı ÓÉËú „ü¡ÒFÕÙã G¨ÙG¡àF πw Gòı£Ëà¨Ó ıKÇ∞¨¯äπ ™ÍåÚ ‹¬ÒFÇË MºãπıF° ÕÙã Ó¨ÏÜ¥ú˜∂. ›˘£ô ﬁâÓ G¨Ù¨Ò IËæã ‡¨ÏÚÇ√ÆÚ∂. ‹™ÒKÇË ıÛæ™ÍÙæFÜÏ ü¯£Ç∞¨¯¨Ú bMÛÒ£å ‹FËKäÓ° ÕÙ∫ã, ıºÉË£Ù ‡ÙË ™ıä ‹FËKäH° ™ÍÙM˘ÉË¨˜ ıLª¡à∂ıÓ° ÕÙ∫ã, Ëàg˘£ Òü¡ã lüÛ£ ≈¯£ıOËO° ‚FòË£Ù ™ÍÙæË¨˜ ıLª¡à∂ıÓ°ÕÙ∫ã ‹âÓ ‡¨Ïªã Ó°¨Ò¨Ú ‹ÆÇ´Ë£ÆÜ¥Ç Ë£ÜÆªú˜∂Ï° ıºÉË£Ù ™ÔºÇËÆËO° Ó°¨Ò ‚äÆ ﬁºÇ∞ã ‚°¨Óªã ´Ë£ÆÜ¥Ç Ë£ÜÆªú˜˘.

ﬁÓü∞ ∫° ‹™ÒKÇËä ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã Òü¡ã ‹ÛCÚô ∫¨¯ "ﬁºÇ∞ã G¨Ùä£ÜÆ´Ù´Ú ™ÔºÇËÆ ™Ë£áÏ Ó°¨Ò" ™£º˜£Ó£Û ™ºÒâÓË£ÙàFôÓ£° ‚°¡ L™ı° ≤ÜÆÇË£ÜÆªú˜£ò. ‹âÓ ™ÔºÇËÆ œv™ıôÜÆ˘£Ωã πFÚ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ´ÛàF˘£Ωã ËÏÇËäÜ¥MÜÏ∂. ›˘£ô πFÚ ´Ûã ‹Óü∞ ∫â¨ÓÚ 40 ›á¥Ë£Ù YòFºàÓ ‹ÛCÚô ﬁÚÇË ı˜òÑCÚ£ô ÓÚ£KÇËäÜÆºâÓ∂. ‹àÓ¨ËÚ ﬁÚÇËã „∂ã Óü™£ø∂ ‹™ÒKÇË£Mô ﬁô¨Ù. ‡á¨ÒJô, bMÛ ‹ÛCÚô YòFºàÓã üP ∫¨¯Ú£Ë, ‹ÇË¨¯ªÏ° Mı£Óã √Ï Ô¨Ï™¯Mô¨Ù. ﬁàÓ¨ËÚ G¨Ù¨Ò bMÛ M¨˜æË¨˜ ™Ë£áÆºÇËÇ√¥ã.

"1929-1932 ô GËõâÓ ™ÔºÇËÆJ° ‹˜æ ﬁä™£ø∂ ‹™ÒKÇË£¨ı Ó£ÇA˘£ô, Ô£ÜÆô ∞ÆÚÛ≤ ™˝ò´òÜ ˝®ıºÇ∞ (Herbert Hoover) ‚FÛ£Ë Âº πFÚ ´Ûà∂Ï° ™ÍÚôÜÆºâÓ HÛ£ÉAO° ¥Ù´˘£ œv˙™ıôÜ ´£ô ÂºıºIô¨Ù. ¸˘Ô£ÚËı£FË¿Ç∞ ÚâÓ, F¯¨ÒÚü¯ ˝®ıò, GÙæã ‹¨Òäπ ∫¨¯J° ´Ò£ÍÒ£˘ √¡£¥Ë¨˜ £∂Ë£ÇË ´ıá¥ã ‚°¯ bÚ Ëºà∂¨ÏÚ ∞ÆÚÛ≤ı£F ËôM° √LÜTü∞ (Calvin Coolidge) ‚FÛ£Ë ´ÓòÓLô Gü∂ ´£ô ﬁºÇ∞ã. ‹∂Ó£° 1932ô ´ÓòæÇ∞KÚÓ£Ë ﬁºâFºâÓ£ô, ‹™ÒKÇË Ô£ÜÆ° ‹vFı£ÛÉË´˜ ™ºã ›àFü∞ ›˜£AJºÇ∞ã." (Financial Times October 15, 2005)

Y˘£M° M¨Ûı£˘ ı˜òÑCJ° ∫ÇAÚà∂ıã

‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàF° ∫ÇAÚ ´£Ç∞ËO° ı˜òÑC üP ﬁä™£ø∂ ›Û£å´ı£ã; „™˘Qô ﬁâÓ ‹Æä¨ÏJôÓ£° Ùı¨ËäÜÏ ∫Ûá£¥¨ÏÚ ıNı¨ËËú, ´£Ç∞Ëú ›AÚıü¨¯ üP ‹Pâ∂ ™Ë£ú˜ ∫Æªã.

‹àÓ¨ËÚ ›åæ Âº ıÛÙ£ü¡ ÒFädÜ¨Ï Ó˜Ò£ËÇ ™Ë£áÆºÇ∞ã. ™Ë£I°´Û¬¨ÏÚ Õ°¯£ã Ë£ÉAÛCü∞ (ËãŒQvÜ ‹ôÙ∂ Õ°¯£ã ‹AÙàFü∞) 1921ã ›á¥ ™Ë£¥àÓ πËõ ™ü¯ ‹PÇ¨ËJô L´Ú£° Ü™Û£ÜvA ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıã "Êò ÍÇFı£åâÓ (ﬁÚÇË ›ü¯ô G¨¯âÓ) ÍÒG¨Ù¨Ú ™Ë£á¥ú˜∂ ‚°¡ã, ‹âÓ ıNı¨ËJô ‚ä™£ø∂ã ‹Næ ‹ôÙ∂ Ò¡YÛ¨Òäπ ´£ÇAô ﬁºÇ∞ã" ‚°¡ã ≤ÜÆÇ Ë£ÜÆ˘£ò. ∫ÓÙ£ã ‡ÙËä ´£K° ™ıÆäπ ‹àÓ¨ËÚ Ô§¨Ù∫P¨ı ™ÓOı£ËÇ Ë£ÜÆÚ∂. 1920ËOô ™£º˜£Ó£Û ≤üPô „ü¯ ﬁ¯ÇËÉËú ﬁºâÓ´£FΩã√Ï, πFÚ ÍÒG¨Ù „ü¥àÓäÏMô¨Ù. ‡ÙË ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıàF° ‹¨˘à∂ ∫Ûá£¥Ë¿ã, ´£ò „üÏ ıNı∞àÓ¨ıÚ£∞ã; ‹¨ı ı˜òâ∂ ∫FòÑCÚ¨Ïâ∂ ∫ÓLô ™ºã ™£º˜£Ó£ÛÒâÓ G¨ÙÇ∞ã H°˘ò ‹Ó° ™Ë£«ÛÒ£˘ M¨˜æË¿Ç∞ã ﬁ¡FÚ£Ë ﬁÛáÏ£ã ‡ÙËä ´£K° ™ıÆäHü∞ã ıNı∞àÓ˘.

‚Ò∂ ÍË£äÓàFô, 1971-75ô H™ÛÜÏ° ◊Üv GFÚ∫¨¯ ™£Pæ Òü¡ã ‡ÙË ÒâÓG¨Ù ™Ó£ÏÇË∫ã, ‹¨Óà ™Ó£ÏòâÓ iÇËÒâÓ G¨Ù (Stagflation) ›AÚ¨ı, ‹™ÒKÇË ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ›FÇËàF° Wõ G¡ıäÜÆºâÓ ´£ºÇ∞ä Hâ¨ÓÚ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ÍÒÑYò G¨ÙJ° ∫Æ¨ı ≤ÜÆÇË£ÜÆÚ∂. ﬁä™£ø∂ Ôã¨Ò ‚Fò™Ë£ú¿ã M˘£: Âº πFÚ ÍÒG¨Ù G¡ıäÜÏÓ£ ‹ôÙ∂ ‹Óü∞ Ò£¯£Ë ∫â¨ÓÚ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ∫¨¯ ÂøÉA° ÍKMü∞ Ë£ÛÌÒ£˘ ∫Ûá£¥Ëú ›õâ∂ bMÛÒ£AMÜÏ˘ı£? ‡ÙË ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıã Âº πFÚ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ÍÒG¨Ù¨Úà ´Ó£ü¡MÇ∞ã £¨ÓJô ™ÍôΩA°¯Ó£ ‹ôÙ∂ ‹Fô ﬁºâ∂ IËæã …ÛàFô ‡ú˜Ó£?

ËÏâÓ 30 ›á¥Ë¨˜ FºãHä £òà´Ó£ã ‚°¯£ô ﬁÛá¥ ™ºã GËõæä´£Ç∞Ë¨˜ Ë£áA´¯£ã: ‹¨ı ‹™ÒKÇË£M° ™£º˜£Ó£ÛÑ ÍKæ Òü¡ã AˆÇ∞ ›CÚ£, ﬁâFÚ£ ‚ôÙ£ıüPü∞ã ´ÒÙ£Ë Y˘£M° ™£º˜£Ó£Û ‚øÑC ‚°˘ı£∞ã. ¸˘£FF GÇÍ°, H™ÛÜÏ° ◊Üv GFÚ ∫¨¯¨Ú ‹ËüP ‹™ÒKÇË Ï£Ù¨Û ‡¡FÚ£˘ ‡ÙË Ô£ÌÚÒ£Ë G¡MÚ´£∂, ‹Ó£ı∂ ‚âÓ ´ÍIàÓ ÒFäH° ›ÓÛæã ﬁôÙ£Òô Êò ‹ÛÍ£ÉËàF° ÔãHÇ¨ËJ°Wõ G¡MÚ´£∂, ‹™ÒKÇË£ ™£∂ı£Ë ﬁ°˘∫ã ‡ÙA° IË ÍÇFı£åâÓ ™£º˜£Ó£Ûà¨Ó ™Ë£áÆºâÓ∂. ‡ÙA° ∫ÓhÜ¥ GFÚÉËO° ∫ÇAÚ ›Ó£ÛÒ£Ëæã ∫°˘E ËÏ°™Ë£¥Ç∞ã Ô£Ï£Ëæã ﬁºâÓ∂. ‹àÓ¨ËÚ G¨Ù ∞¨¯âÓ ÜÍã 1980ËO° Ë¨ÏC ı¨Û cÆàÓ∂. ‹ä™£øFô ﬁºâ∂, ‹™ÒKÇË£ ‡ÙA° ™ºã ËÏ˘£O Ô£Ï£AÇ ™Ë£á¥ ıâ∂ú˜∂. ‡ÙË ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıã ﬁàÓ¨ËÚ G¨Ù¨Ú ﬁ∂Ë£¡ã --‹Ó£ı∂ ∫°˘E Ô£¥ IËä ™ºã ËÏ˘£O Ô£¥ ‚°¯ G¨Ù¨Ú-- ‹¬MàÓFô¨Ù.

‹™ÒKÇË£ ﬁ°¬ã √¥ÓÙ£˘ ËÏQô ›õâ∂™Ë£áÆºÇ¨ËJΩã, Ôıãò Ò£Ó ıEËä ü¯£Ç∞¨¯ πúOMıÛÉËú "ÔôÙ ™ÍåF" ‚°¡ ‚¥à∂Ç ™Ë£ú˜äÜÏ˘; „™˘Qô Ò£Ó£âFÛ ﬁ¨Ï™ıO 68 HôLÚ° Ï£ÙKô ﬁºâ∂ 64 HôLÚ° Ï£ÙÛ£Ë ∞¨¯âÓ∂. Y˘£ IËä ™ºã ™Ó£Nô∂¨¯ ı˜òÑC ™ıÆä¨Ç ™Ë£áÆºÇA¯∂; ‹Ó° ‹˜æ ﬁ∂Ë£¡ã ‚ıºã ‚ÜÆÚFô¨Ù ‚°¯ G¨ÙJô ‡ú˜∂. IËæã Â°¡Ï° Â°¡ ™Ó£ÏòÜÏ ﬁâÓ ﬁÛá¥ ´£Ç∞Ë¿ã ‡ÙË ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıä ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàF° ﬁÓÚàÓ£˘àFô ﬁÚÉ∞ã IË ÍÇF ı£åâÓ ™ÍÚü£¥ËO° MÚàÓ∞ ™ıOä£¥Ë˜£∞ã.

¸ä£°, Y˘£ ÒàFÚ ›CÚ ıÉAËú Ìã ™Ë£¥Ç¨ËJΩã, ‹´Ó´ÔÛàFô ‹É∞ ‡üàFÚ£∞ã ™£ºÜË¿Ç∞Ñ ‹™ÒKÇË£ Âº Íâ¨Ó¨Ú ıˆÉ∞ã ´ÔÛàFô, ‹™ÒKÇË£ ﬁ°¬ã √¥ÓÙ£˘ ËÏQô Õõ∞ã Óü´£¨ÓÚ G¨Ù¨Ú ‚âÓà bMÛä ™£º˜£Ó£Û ıôΩ˘ºã ﬁàÓ¨ËÚ G¨Ù cáÏË£Ùã cÆä∂ ﬁÚô£Ë Í£àFÚÒ£Ë£∂ ‚°¡Ó£° √¡ı£ò. ›˘£ô ﬁâÓ ‡¡FÚü¯ ‡¯æÓ£° ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàF° ™£º˜£Ó£Û ı˜òÑCÇË£˘ ‹ÆàÓ˜à¨Ó ‹Oà∂ ıºA¯∂. IMF ﬁ° ËºàF°Æ 2000 ∫Óô 2005 ›á¥ ı¨Û Y˘£æã ‹™ÒKÇË£æã, ‹ıüPüA¨Ï´Ú ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£Û ı˜òÑCJô 40 ÍÓMAÓàFü∞ã ´ÒÙ£˘ ÒFä¨ ™Ë£áÏ˘ ‚°¡ã Òü¯ Ô£¥ËOÏã ﬁºâ∂ ﬁâÔ£¥ËO° „ü¡ÒFÇË£˘ ´Ó¨ı¨ÚÇ ËÌÇAô ™Ë£áÏ£ô 50 ÍÓMAÓàFü∞ã ´ÒÙ£˘ ı˜òÑCÇ∞ä ™£¡äπÇ ™Ë£á¥ú˜˘ ‚°¡ã ™ÓKA¯∂.(Australian Financial Review January 9, 2006)

ﬁâÓä ™£º˜£Ó£Û ÂøÉ∞ ∫°˘£ú ‹™ÒKÇËÇ Ëº◊ÙÑ ™ÍÚÙò ´Ù£Û°v ÍãÒò ∞PäHÜÏ "GFÚ ‹Ñ≤¡àÓô ÍÒG¨Ù" ‚°¯ Ó°¨ÒJ° ›FÇËàFü∞ ‡ÜÜ¥ú˜∂; ›CÚ ÒàFÚ ıÉAËú ™Ó£Ïòâ∂ ‹™ÒKÇË£Mü∞ GFÚà¨Ó ‹Oà∂ıºıÓü∞ Ë£ÛÌã, ‹öı£¡ Ó£ÉËú ™ÍåÚ£MÜÏ£ô ‚äÆäÜÏ M¨˜æËú „ü¥´Ò£ ‚°¯ ™ºã ‹ÑÍãÓ£° Ë£ÛÌã.

Clyde Prestowitz ‚°¬ã ™£º˜£Ó£ÛÇ ËºàÓ£åı£˜ò √¡ıÓ£ı∂: "bÚ Ë˘æÇ Ë£ÜC -- Âº ™£º˜£Ó£Û 9/11 ´£°¯ G¨Ù¨Ò-- ‚°∂ FØ™Û°¡ £KÚ Ï£ÙòËú Mü¨˘Ú£ô „üÜ¥, ‡ÙË GFÚä ™ºã dF „üÜ¥ ‹¨Ó™Ú£ÜÆ IËÑ CPÚ ∫¨¯Jô Âäπ¨ÒJô ´≤ã´£∂ Õ°¯£âÓÛ ‰´Û£äHÚ ÔËK° ﬁÛáÏ£âÓÛ ›vFKÚ£M° ‹ÛÍ ∞¥ãàF° ÒË° Âºıò ™Ë£ôÙä¥ı∂ ´£ô ﬁºÇ∞ã ‚˘ ∞PäHÜÏ£ò. Ï£ÙK° ÍKæã ‹Ó° M¨˜ı£Ë ‡ÙA° ﬁºäπ Ô£ÌÚã ¨ËMÏäÏΩã ‹™ÒKÇË£Mô IËä ™KÚ ÒâÓ G¨Ù¨Ú „ü¥à∂ã. ‚Kı£ª, ‚K™£ºú M¨ÙËú ™K∂ã ‡Úòâ∂M¥ã, ﬁ¯Ç∞ÒFä ™£ºú ‚∂æã IË ‡ÚòâÓ M¨ÙÇ∞ ‡ÜÜ¥M¥ã, ıÜÆMAÓÉËú ™K∂ã ‡Úòâ∂M¥ã, ´ı¨ÙJ°¨Òªã ™ºAM¥ã. "ÒâÓ-ÌiÇË G¨Ù" ‚°¯ 1970ËOô Ë£ÌäÜÏ G¨Ù, IË ™Ò∂ı£˘ ı˜òÑC, IË ‡ÚòâÓ ´ı¨ÙJ°¨Ò ﬁÛá¥ã ﬁÛÜ¨Ï ‚áEÇ¨Ë ÌiÇËã Òü¡ã ﬁÛÜ¨Ï ‚áEÇ¨Ë ıÜÆMAÓÉË¿Ï° ﬁ¨Ìâ∂ ´Ó£ÜÏàFô ÔÏä∂ ´£ô ´Ó£°¡ã. ‹™ÒKÇË£ ﬁä™£ø∂ ‡ÙËàF° Â´Û ∫ÇAÚ GËÛ ﬁ¯Ç∞ÒFÚ£˜Û£Ë ﬁºÇ∞ã Ô£Ï£∞ã; ‹¨˘à∂ „ü¡ÒFÚ£˜òË¿ã ‹¨Ó ÓÉË¿¨ÏÚ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ‡¡FÇ∞ ÔãHJºÇ∞ã Ô£¥Ëú IËÇ Ë¥¨ÒÚ£˘ £FäHü∞ ‡Ü¥ıò. ﬁàÓ¨ËÚ M¨˜æËú „ü¥ã ‚°¯ CâÓ¨˘Ó£° ™ºã Ï£Ùò ﬁºäπ ‡¨ÏÚıòË¨˜ ™ºã ÔÛãπà Ó˜òÑCÇ∞ ‡Ü¥àF ‹ıòË¨˜ Óü´£¨ÓÇ∞ ÓÉËú ´ÒÙFËäÌà¨Ó Ï£ÙK´Ù´Ú ™Ó£Ïòâ∂ ¨ıàFºÇË ™ÍåA¯∂." (Clyde Prestowitz Three Billion Capitalists pp. xii-xiii).

Y˘£M° IË M¨Ûı£˘ ı˜òÑC ™Ó£ÏòÑCÚ£˘ πúOMıÛÉËO˘£ô ÒÜ¥ã ´£∂Ò£˘ ∫¨¯Jô Ëı˘àFü™Ë¥ÇË ∫ÆÚ£∂; ›˘£ô ‚âÓ ‹˜Mü∞ Ò£ü¯ã ‡ú˜∂ ‚°¯ ∞Pä¨´Ú ıˆÉ∞A°¯∂. ËÏâÓ ﬁº ÓÍ£äÓÉËOô, ™£º˜£Ó£Û ı˜òÑC ›á¥ Â°Pü∞ 9 ÍÓMAÓã ‚°¡ ÍÛ£ÍKÚ£Ë ‡ú˜∂. ‹Ó£ı∂ Y˘ä ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã ‹˜Mô AÜÏàÓÜÏ ‚Ü¥ ›á¥Ë¿Ç∞ Âº ∫¨¯ ﬁºÒÏÉË£AM¥ã. ‡ÙË ıEËàF° Y˘£M° É∞ ﬁ´Ó Ë£Ù ËÜÏàFô ∞¨¯âÓ∂ ›¡ ÒÏÉ∞ ‹FËÒ£Aªú˜∂ --‹Ó£ı∂ 1 ÍÓMAÓàFô ﬁºâ∂ 2004ã ›á¥ 6 ÍÓMAÓã ‚°¡ ›Aªú˜∂. ﬁ°¡ ‹∂ ﬁ°¬ã √¥ÓÙ£ËàÓ£° ﬁºÇËÇ √¥ã. ‹™ÒKÇË£Mü∞ ‹¥àÓÆÚ£Ë Y˘£ ﬁä™£ø∂ ‡ÙA° ﬁÛáÏ£ã ™KÚ „ü¡ÒFÚ£˜Û£Ë ‡ú˜∂; ﬁâÓ ›á¥ ´¸òÒQ¨Ú ‹∂ ﬁöMÓàFô ËÏâ∂ MÜÏ∂. 2002ã ›á¥ Ô¥ä∞FJô ﬁºâ∂, ¸ä£¬Ç∞ ‹¥àÓÆÚ£Ë Y˘£ cáÏË£Ù ‹™ÒKÇË ËÏ°àFÛÉË¨˜ ı£ÉAªú˜ Ô£Ï£Ë ‡ú˜∂. ﬁä™£ø∂ ‹∂ ‹FË£ÛÃòıÒ£Ë ™ıOÔ£Ü¥ Ô£ÌÚ ﬁºäπÇË¨˜ $819 HôLÚ° ‚°¡, ‹Ó£ı∂ ™Í°¯ ›á¨Ï MÏ $209 HôLÚ° √¥ÓÙ£Ë, ¸ä£° ™Ë£áÆºÇ∞ã $847 HôLÚ¬Ç∞ ‹¥àÓ£ü´£ô ™Ë£á¥ú˜∂. ﬁâÓ ›á¥ ﬁ¡FÇ∞ú ‹Ó° ﬁºäπÇËú $1 ÆKôLÚ˘£Ë ﬁºÇ∞ã ‚°¡ ‚Fò£òÇËä¥A¯∂. (¢Financial Times January 16, 2006)

ËÏâÓ 20 ›á¥ËOô Y˘£M° „ü¯ÒF ıEËà Ó°¨ÒJô Âº Ò£ü¯ã „üÜ¥ú˜∂. ‡üàF ™ÍåÚäÜÏ ™£ºÜËO° É∞ 50 ÍÓMAÓàFô ﬁºâ∂ 90 ÍÓMAÓàFü∞ã ‹FËÒ£Ëä ´£åMÜÏ∂; ‹Æä¨Ïä ™£ºÜËO° ‡Ï°ÆÇ¨ËJ° É∞ 9 ÍÓMAÓã ‚°¯ ‹˜Mô ÒÜ¥´Ò ‡ú˜∂.

‡á¨ÒJô, ‡ÙA° ‡üàF ¨ÒÚÒ£Ë Y˘£ Ò£PMÜÏ∂. ‡ÙA° HÛF ‚¥Ç∞ã ﬁÚâFÛÉËú (Photocopiers), Ë£ÙEËú, M¨˜Ú£Ü¥ä ™£ºÜËú, ¨ÒÇ´Û£´ıö ‹¥äπËú, ›AÚıü¨¯ä ™ºÒ˜æ ‡üàF ™ÍåA¯∂; ‡ÙA° DVD ÇËú, ÆTÜÏô Ë£IÛ£ÇËú, C™Ò°Ü, ¸æOËú ›AÚıüPô £FÇ∞ã ´ÒÙ£Ë ﬁÉ∞ ‡üàFÚ£A°¯˘; DVD-ROM Æ¨ÛöËú Òü¡ã ™ÏvÇÏ£ä ËãäŒÏòËOô Õ°Pô Âº É∞, ‡ÙA° ™Ò£¨ô ™Ó£¨Ù´CËú, ™Ó£¨ÙÇË£ÜC ™ÜÆËú, PDA ÇËú, ‚Á∞, Ë£ò vØK´Ú£ÇËú ›AÚıüPô Ô£°Aô Âº É∞ ﬁÉ∞ ‡üàFÚ£A°¯˘. ﬁâÓ ‡üàFJô ™ºã£°¨Ò „ü¡ÒFÚ£A°¯˘; „ü¡ÒF 1990ËOô ﬁºâ∂ ‚Ü¥ÒÏÉË£Ë ﬁä™£ø∂ $400 HôLÚ˘£Ë ‡Úòâ∂ú˜∂; ËÏâÓ ›á¥ ›CÚ£M° I°Í£Ûä™£ºÜËOô 30 ÍÓMAÓàFü∞ã ´ÒÙ£Ë Y˘£Ó£° „ü¡ÒF ™ÍåÓ∂.

Y˘£ ﬁäÆä Ù ™£ºÜË¨˜ªã „ü¡ÒF ™ÍåA¯∂ ‚°¡ Ô£ã √¡ã´£∂, Ô£ã Ú°¥à∂ã ™Í£ü™¯£ÏòËú Ôã∫¨ÏÚ ™Ò£N ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàFô „üÜ¥ú˜ ÛâÓ M¨Ûı£˘ Ò£ü¯ÉË¿Ç∞ ﬂ¥™Ë£¥ÇË ∫ÆÚ£Òô H° ÓÉAªú˜∂ ‚°¨Ó ‡ÌòA´¯£ã. ﬁ°¬ã √¥ÓÙ£˘, ∂ôLÚÒ£˘ ∫¨¯Jô ™Í£ôÙ´ıá¥ã ‚°¯£ô, Y˘£Mü∞ ™ıOJô ﬁºâ∂ ™ÍÚô¥ã G¡ı˘ÉËú ﬁäÆ ıEËä ™ºÇËã ™ÍåA°¯˘ ‚°¡ √¯´ıá¥ã; „™˘Qô Y˘ä ™£º˜£Ó£Û Ò£ü¯àF° ¨ÒÚÇ √¡£¥ ™ıOÔ£Ü¥ ´ÔÛÆ ∫ÓhÜÆ° (Foreign Direct Investment FDI) ‡Ü£åÑÍÙ£ô ™Ó£NüÍ£¨ÙËú ‹¨ÒÇËäÜ¥ú˜∂Ó£°.

1979-82 Ë£ÙËÜÏàFô ™ıOÔ£Ü¥ ´ÔÛÆ ∫Óh¥ $1.77 HôLÚ˘£ËàÓ£° ﬁºâÓ∂. ﬁ∂ 1990ô $3.49 HôLÚ˘£Ë ‡Úòâ∂ ‹Ó° H°˘ò ¸®¨Ù 1989 ÆÚ™˘°™Ò° Í∂ÇË ¥™Ë£¨Ù Òü¡ã 1992ô ™ÏÉ ™Ë£¥àÓ ™ıOÚ£ò ÕÙÓ˘ã, Íâ¨Ó ‡¯æË¿Ç∞ Y˘£ ™K∂ã ËÜ¥äÜ¥ú˜∂ ‚°¡ ™Ë£¥àÓ ‡¡F™Ò£NË¨˜ ‹¥à∂ ™ı∞ M¨Ûı£Ë ‹FËKÇË ™Ó£ÏÉAÚ∂. 1991ã ›á¥ ™ıOÔ£Ü¥ ´ÔÛÆ ∫Óh¥ $4.37 HôLÚ˘£Ë ﬁºâÓ∂. ‹¥àÓ ›á¥ ﬁ∂ ﬁºÒÏÉAü∞ã ´ÒÙ£Ëä ™ºA $11.01 HôLÚ¨˘ ‚ÜÆÚ∂; ‹Ó° H°˘ò eá¥ã 1993ô ﬁºÒÏÉAü∞ã ‹FËÒ£A $27.52 HôLÚ˘£Jü¡. Óü™£ø∂ ™ıOÔ£Ü¥ ´ÔÛÆ ∫Óh¥ AÜÏàÓÜÏ ›áÆü∞ $60 HôLÚ° ‚°¡ ‡ú˜∂. ‹™ÒKÇË£¨ıªã Ò¨¯Ç∞ã ‹˜Mü∞ Y˘£Ó£° ﬁä™£ø∂ ™ıOÔ£Ü¥ ´ÔÛÆ ∫ÓhÜ¨Ï ™¡ã Ô£Ï£Ë ‡ú˜∂; ‹âÔ£Ü¥ É∞Ñ Íâ¨ÓJô ™ıO ∫Óh¥ $500 HôLÚ¬Ç∞ã ‹FËÒ£Ë ‡ú˜∂.

ﬁäÆäÜÏ Ò£™ºã ÕÙÓ˘ã, ﬁÙ£MAÓÉËú ∞¨¯ÇËäÏ ´ıá¥ã ‚°¯ ∫ÆMÙ£ ‹øàÓà¨Ó ËÏÇËæã, ™ÍÙM˘ÉË¨˜ ∞¨¯ÇËæã ™º G¡ı˘ÉËú ‚¥à∂Ç ™Ë£ú¿ã ∫ÚüCËO° ‡â∂ÓÙ£ô ıâ∂ú˜∂. ËÏôËÏâ∂ Y˘£Mô ∫Óh¥ ™ÍåıF°ÕÙã Âº ‡üàFÚ£˜ò ‡üàFÑ ™ÍÙMô 20ô ﬁºâ∂ 50 ÍÓMAÓã ı¨Û ∞¨¯ÇËÙ£ã ‚°¡ ÒFäHÏäÜ¥ú˜∂. Y˘£Mô ™Ó£NÙ£˜ºÇË£˘ ™ÍÙM˘ÉËú ‹™ÒKÇË£M´Ù£ ‰´Û£ä£M´Ù£ ﬁºäFô F¨˘âFô Âº É∞ ‹ôÙ∂ ∫äFô Âº É∞ ‚°¡Ó£° ‡ú˜∂. ËÜÆÏÉËO˘∂ã ËºMËO˘∂ã ™ÍÙM˘ÉË¿ã 70 ÍÓMAÓÉËú ∞¨¯ı£Ë ﬁºÇËÇ √¥ã.

Y˘£ ‡ÙË ‡üàFJ° ¨ÒÚÒ£AMÜÏ∂ ‚°¡ √P˘£ô, ﬁâFÚ£ ‡ÙË ‹ΩıÙËÒ£AÇ ™Ë£á¥ıºA°¯∂; ÓËıô ™Ó£Nô∏Üã Òü¡ã EËO° ¨ÒÚÒ£A MÜÏ∂. 2000ã ›áÆô ﬁâFÚ ™Ò°™£ºú „ü¡ÒFËú AÜÏàÓÜÏ $6 HôLÚ° ‚°¡Ó£° ﬁºâÓ∂. Deloitte ËÌÇWÜ¥ G¡ı˘àF°Æ ‹¥àÓ ‰â∂ ›á¥ËOô ‡ÙA° IËä ™KÚ GFÚ ‹¨ÒäπÇËú $356 HôLÚ° Ì∫ã 2 IôLÚ° ´ı¨ÙË¨˜ªã ‹âGÚÔ£¥ËOô ¨ıàFºÇ∞ã. ‹ıüPô ™ºã£Ù£˘¨ı ﬁâFÚ£Mô ﬁºÇ∞ã ‚°¡ √¯ä¥A¯∂. Âº ÒFädÜÆ°Æ ﬁâFÚ ÓËıô, ™Ó£Nô∏Ü Eà∂¨¯ $57 HôLÚ° ıºı£¨Ú ™Ë£á¥ 4.4 IôLÚ° ÒÇË¿Ç∞ ´ı¨Ù ™Ë£¥à∂ 2008ã ›áÆü∞ú Ô£ÜÆ° ™Ò£àÓ ‡üàFJô 7 ÍÓMAÓà¨ÓÇ ™Ë£ú¿ã.

¸˘ıK 9ã ´ÓF ™ıOıâÓ Ëºà∂ Â°P°Æ, ´Ò£òË° vÏ£°L ‡¨ÏÚ Ó¨Ù¨Ò ™£º˜£Ó£Û ıôΩ˘Û£˘ Stephen Roach ∞PäHÜÆºäÓ£ı∂: "‰â∂ ›á¥Ë¿Ç∞ ∫°πÓ£°, ‹ΩıÙË ™Ó£NôËú ™ıO´Úü¯ã ‚°∂ ÓËıô ıNı¨Ë (Data processing) Òü¡ã ‹¨ˆäπ ¨ÒÚÉË¿Ï° (Call centres) G°PºâÓ∂; ﬁ°´¯£ ÓËıô ™Ó£Nô∏Üã ıˆÉAªú˜ ™Ó£Ïòπ∫¨¯J°Æ, ﬁà™Ó£Nô ™ıOÚü¯ã ‹Pæà ™Ó£NÙ£˜ò „EJô ‡ÚòÒÜÏÉË˜£˘ ™Ò°™£ºú FÜÏI¥Óô, ™£PJÚÙ£˜òËú, ıÆı¨Òä£˜òËú, Òºà∂ıòËú, ıˆÇËPÎòËú, ËÌÇË£˜òËú, Ë£ädÜ¥ ÒFä£˜òËú, ıEË ›´Ù£ÍËòËú, GFÚä ∞ä£åı£˜òËú ‚°¯ HKæË¿Ç∞ã ÔËòâ∂MÜÏ∂."

Y˘£ ™Ó£NôÒÚÒ£ÇËäÜÏ∂ ‚°∂ ‹Ó° ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàFô ›õâÓ Ó£ÇËÉË¨˜ ™Ë£á¥ú˜∂; ‹¨Ó™Ú£ÜÆ ›CÚä ∞FJô ‹ÛCÚô ‡¯æËOΩã ›õâÓ £Fäπ „üÜ¥ú˜∂. 2004ã ›á¥ ™ıOJÏäÜÏ ‹PÇ¨Ë Â°Pô, ‡ÙË Ô£ÌÚ GFÚã ‹¨˘à∂ä ∞FËOô ﬁºâ∂ã ﬁ¯Ç∞ÒF Y˘£Mü∞ ‹FËKàÓ£Ωã, ‹ºAô ‡ú˜ ∞FËOô ﬁºâ∂ ﬁ¯Ç∞ÒF IËæã ‹FËÒ£A ‡ú˜∂ ‚°¡ ∞PäHÜ¥ú˜∂. "ﬁ∂ HÛ£âFÚ ™ÍÚô∫¨¯ ¨ÒÚÒ£˘ Y˘£M° ‚øÑCä É¨Ë HÛFLÇA¯∂; Ò¡ „ü¡ÒFË¿ÇË£˘ ‡üàF Ô¨Ï∫¨¯Ëú ‹É∞ ™ºAMÜÏ˘; ‚˘´ı HÛ£âFÚ ı˜òÑC ﬁÚâFÛã ‚°¯ ı¨ËJô ‹Ó° Ó£ÇËã M¨ÛMô ¸ä£¬¨ÏÚ¨ÓMÏ ‹FËÒ£˘Ó£Ë ﬁºÇ∞ã ‚°¡ ËºÓä¥A¯∂.

1991-2001 ÓÍ£äÓàFô ‡ÙË ıEËã 177 ÍÓMAÓã ‡ÚòâÓ∂. ıÜÏ£ÛÉË¿Ç∞ ﬁ¨Ï´ÚÚ£˘ ™Óü∞ ›CÚ ıEËã ﬁ´Ó Ë£ÙËÜÏàFô 304 ÍÓMAÓã ‡ÚòâÓ∂.

™Ó° ™Ë£KÚ£M° ‡Ó£ÛÌà¨Ó ‚¥à∂Ç ™Ë£ú¿´ı£ã; Y˘£Mô ™£º˜£Ó£Û ≤ü¡ıÜÏàFô ™ºAÚ ∫¨¯Jô ﬂòÇËäÜ¥ú Ô£¥ËOô ﬁ∂æã Â°¯£∞ã. ™Ó° ™Ë£KÚ£M° „ü¡ÒFJô Y˘£M° É∞ 1990ã ›á¥ ﬁºâÓ 2 ÍÓMAÓàFô ﬁºâ∂ ﬁ°¡ AÜÏàÓÜÏ 24 ÍÓMAÓã ‡Úòâ∂ú˜∂. ™Ó° ™Ë£KÚ G¡ı˘ÉËú IË ‹FË ‹˜Mô Y˘£Mô ∫Óh¥ ™Íå∂ú˜˘; ™Ó°™Ë£KÚ ıòàÓË ‡KJô Y˘£M° ‹Oäπ 90 ÍÓMAÓÒ£Ë ‡ú˜∂.

1999ã ›á¥, ™Ó°™Ë£KÚ£ Y˘£æÏ˘£˘ ıEËàFô Ó°¬¨ÏÚ ™Ò£àÓà ™Ó£¨ËJô 10 ÍÓMAÓà¨Óªã MÏ ∞¨¯ı£˘ É¨ËàÓ£° ™Ë£áÆºâÓ∂. ‹âÓ ‚áEÇ¨Ë ﬁä™£ø∂ 18 ›Ë ‡Úòâ∂ú˜∂. 1999ã ›á¥ Y˘£æÏ˘£˘ ıEËàFô ›vF´ÛLÚ£ 5 ÍÓMAÓàFü∞ã Íü´¯ √¥ÓÙ£˘ ‹˜¨ı´Ú ™Ë£áÆºâÓ∂, Óü™£ø∂ ‹∂ AÜÏàÓÜÏ 12 ÍÓMAÓÒ£Aªú˜∂. CÉËäÃK° ‹FËKäπ ‰â∂ ÍÓMAÓàFü∞ã ∞¨¯æ ‚°Fô ﬁºâ∂ AÜÏàÓÜÏ 10 ÍÓMAÓã ‚°¡ ›Aªú˜∂. Ò´ÙCÚ£¨ı ™£¡àÓı¨ÛJô „ü¯ã 9ô ﬁºâ∂ 17 ÍÓMAÓÒ£A MÜÏ∂. [¢Financial Times December 9, 2005]

Y˘£M° ™Ò£àÓ ıEËàFô £FÇ∞ã ´ÒÙ£˘¨ı AˆÇ∞ ›CÚ ∞FÇ∞ú ‡ú˜∂. 2003ã ›á¥ Y˘£Mü∞ã ›CÚ£M° Òü¯ ∞FË¿Ç∞ã ﬁ¨Ï´ÚÚ£˘ ıEËã $405 HôLÚ° ‚°¡ ∫â¨ÓÚ ›á¨ÏMÏ 36.5 ÍÓMAÓã √¥ÓÙ£Jü¡. ﬁÓü∞ä ™K∂ã Ë£ÛÌã ∞FJô ﬁºâ∂ ‹FËÒ£˘ „ü¯ÒFËú ›∞ã; ‹Ó£ı∂ 42.4 ÍÓMAÓã ‹FËÒ£Ë $272.9 HôLÚ° ‚°¡ ‹FËÒ£Jü¡. 2003ã ›á¥ ÒÜ¥ã Y˘£ ¸ä£Qô ﬁºâ∂ ﬁ¯Ç∞ÒF ™ÍåÓ∂ 38.7 ÍÓMAÓã ‚°¡ ‡ÚòâÓ∂; ™Ó° ™Ë£KÚ£Mô ﬁºâ∂ 51.7 ÍÓMAÓã, ﬁâFÚ£Mô ﬁºâ∂ 87 ÍÓMËÓã ‚°¡ ‡ÚòâÓ˘. (See Power Shift China and Asia's New Dynamics Davif Shambaugh ed. p.37)

ﬁàÓ¨ËÚ ∫¨¯Jô Y˘£Mô ‡üàFà ™Ó£NLô MÚàÓ∞ ı˜òÑC 1980 ËOΩã 1990 ËO° ›ÛãË£ÙàFô ﬁºâ∂ AˆÇ∞ ›CÚ ∞FJô ı˜òÑCªüPºâÓ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ‡¯æË¨˜ ∫ü¯£Ë ∞ˆäàFü∞ú˜£ÇAMÜÏ∂. ‹âÓ ∫¨¯ "¯Ç∞ã ı£à∂ÇËú" Ò£FK ‚°¡ ‹¨ˆÇËäÜÆºâÓ∂. ¸ä£°Ó£° ∫°˘E ı£àÓ£Ë Y˘£ ‡ÜÏ, Òü¯ıü¨¯ ﬁøà∂Ç™Ë£á¥ ™Í°PºâÓ∂.

¯Ç∞ã ı£à∂ÇËú ∫°Ò£FKJô, AˆÇ∞ ›CÚ ™£º˜£Ó£ÛÉËú ÕÙÓ˘ä ™£ºÜË¨˜ ¸ä£Qô ﬁºâ∂ ﬁ¯Ç∞ÒF ™ÍåÓ˘; ﬁ¨Ó™Ú£ÜÆ ¸ä£QÚ ∫Óh¥ ‹ä∞FÇ∞ú ÔËòâÓ∂; ﬁÓ˘£ô ‹É∞ ‡üàF™ÍåÚäÜÏ ™£ºÜËú ‹™ÒKÇË£Mü∞ã Òü¯ Íâ¨ÓË¿Ç∞ã ‹¬ääÜÏ˘. ﬁâÓ ∫¨¯Ó£° "›CÚ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ‹FÍÚã" ‚°¡ ‹¨ˆÇËäÜÏ∂; ﬁ∂ 1990 ËO° ™Ó£ÏÇËàFô ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£Û ı˜òÑCJô 50 ÍÓMAÓàFü∞ã ´ÒÙ£Ë ıˆÉAÚ∂.

1997-98 ›CÚ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ™ÔºÇËÆ ¸ä£° ‡ÜÏ ∞FJô ﬁºâÓ ‹¨˘à∂ Ô£¥ËOΩã ´ÛNæ Ó£ÇËà¨Ó „ü¥àFÚ∂. ﬁâÓ ™ÔºÇËÆ ‹™ÒKÇË£M˘£ô ı£åä£Ë ‚¥à∂Ç ™Ë£ú˜äÜ¥ ™Ó£¨Ù´Ô£Ç∞¨ÏÚ ™£º˜£Ó£Û, GFÚ Ò¡ ËÜÏ¨ÒäπÇË¨˜ ´Òü™Ë£ú˜ ¨ıàÓ∂; ∫°˘£ô ‹öı£¡ ﬁºÇË ´ıá¥ã ‚°¡ ‹∂ ı£FÜÆºâÓ£Ωã ‹Fô ™ıüP ™¯£Òô ﬁºâÓ∂. ÕÙÓ˘ã G¨¯Ú ıÛ´ı ›CÚä ™£º˜£Ó£ÛÉËú ‹™ÒKÇË£ ´Ë£KÚ F¨ÍJô ‚âÓ ‹øàÓàF° Wøã Ò£¡ÓΩÇ∞ ‡ÜÏMô¨Ù; ﬁÓ˘£ô ¸ä£° ‹ä´£FºâÓ ∫¨¯Jô Wõ ™ºã Ù°Ë¨˜ ™ü¯∂. ™ÔºÇËÆ „üÜÏæÏ°, ‹™ÒKÇË£Mô ´£ò ∫ˆÇËã "End crony capitalism -- ÔÜπ ÕÙÒ£Ë ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıàFü∞ ∫ÆæËÜ¥Ë" ‚°¡ ﬁºâÓ∂; ÒàFÚ KÍòö ıÉAà Ó¨Ùıò Greenspan, ‚äÆ ‚àÓ¨ËÚ ËÜ¥ä£¥ã ´Ó£ôMÇ∞ ‡ÜÜ¥M¥ã ‚°Óü∞ ﬁ∂ Òü™¯£º ‡Ó£ÛÌã ‚°¡ M˜ÇA˘£ò.

‡á¨ÒÚ£˘ HÛÑC¨˘ "ÔÜπ ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıã" ‹ôÙ, ¸ä£Q° G¨ÙÓ£°. ﬁ∂ ´Ï£ÇA´Ú£M˘£ô Ô°∞ ‡ÌÛäÜÆºâÓ∂; H°˘ò ™ÔºÇËÆ „üÜÏæÏ°, ¸ä£QÚ ‹ÛÍ£ÉËã 100 HôLÚ° Ï£Ù¨Û ‹ä∞F¨Ú Ë£ä£ü¡ıÓüË£˘ GFÚ£Ë ∫°™Ó£¨ËÚ£Ë ™Ë£¥ÇË ∫°ıâÓ∂. ﬁÓ° M¨˜æ ‹™ÒKÇË£æÏ˘£˘ ´ÔÛÆ ´Ò£ÓÙ£˘∂; Íòı´ÓÍ Ô£ÌÚ GFÚã, ‹Ó£ı∂ ‹™ÒKÇË ıÉAË¿ã GFÚ ‹¨ÒäπÇË¿ã ∫ÇAÚ É¨Ë ıAÇË´ıá¥ã ‚°¡ ‹™ÒKÇË£ ıLª¡àFÚ∂.

‹™ÒKÇË£æÏ° ™ºã ´Ò£Ó¨Ù ‚Fò™Ë£áÏ G¨ÙJô, ¸ä£° Ó°¬¨ÏÚ FÜÏà¨Ó Fºã ™ü¡Ç ™Ë£á¥, Íòı´ÓÍ Ô£ÌÚ GFÚàF° ›¨ÌËO° Æ Ò£ü¡ı¨ËË¨˜ ¨ËÚ£áÏ∂. ¸ä£¨˘ ﬁöMÓàFô ﬂ¥¥à∂ã Ë£ÛEËOô Â°¡ Y˘£MÏã ﬁºâ∂ ‹Ó° FÜÏÉË¿Ç∞ ›ÓÛæ „∂ã A¨ÏÇË£∂ ‚°∂Ó£°.

›CÚ ™ÔºÇËÆ¨Úà ™Ó£Ïòâ∂, ¯Ç∞ã ı£à∂ÇËú Ò£FK ∫Ææü¯¨Ó Ô£ã Ëá´Ï£ã; ﬁ¨Óà ™Ó£Ïòâ∂ Y˘£Mô ™Ó£NôÒÚã M¨ÛæÜÏ∂. ‹á¨ÒJô ¸ä£¬Ç∞ã Y˘£Mü∞ã ﬁ¨Ï´Ú ™ºAÚ ‹øàÓÈËO° H°EJô ﬁºÇ∞ã Ë£ÛEËOô ﬁ∂ ¨ÒÚÒ£∞ã. ´£ºÇ∞ä H° ¸ä£° ﬁä∞FJô ™Ë£áÆºâÓ ›FÇËã ﬁä™£ø∂ ›CÚ GÙä∞FJ´Ù´Ú ‚øÑC ™ü¯ π∂ ÍÇFJ˘£ô ´ËúMÇ∞ ‡Ü¥àÓäÜ¥ú˜∂; 19ã Àü¯£áÆ° Hü∞FJΩã 20ã Àü¯£áÆ° ™Ó£ÏÇË ›á¥ËOΩã ‰´Û£äHÚ ËáÏàFô ıôÙ¨Ò ÍÒG¨Ù¨Ú ÓÇË ¨ıà∂Ç ™Ë£ú¿ã ™KÚ HKÜÏQ° ∫ÚüC ‚öı£¡ ´¸òÒQJ° ™Ó£Nü∂¨¯J° ı˜òÑCJ˘£ô Íı£ΩÇ∞ ‡ÜÜÏ´Ó£, ‹äÆàÓ£° ﬁâÓ ´Ò£ÓΩã ﬁºâÓ∂.

Y˘ä ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàF° ı˜òÑC MÚàÓ∞ ∫¨¯Jô ﬁºâÓ£Ωã, ﬁÓ° ›õâÓ ‡ú∫Ûá£¥Ë¿ã ‡ú˜˘. ı˜òÑCJ° ﬁÚÇËÍÇFJ° ¨ÒÚàFô „ü¡ÒF MKı£ÇËã ‡ú˜∂. 1980ô ﬁºâ∂ 2005 ı¨Û „ü¡ÒF 41 ÒÏÉ∞ ‹FËÒ£Jü¡; ›á¥ Â°¡Ç∞ 16 ÍÓMAÓä ™ºÇËã ‚°¡ ﬁºâÓ∂. ›˘£ô ‹àÓ¨ËÚ ı˜òÑC MAÓã ™Ó£Ïòâ∂ G¨ÙG¡àÓäÏ ∫ÆÚ£Ó∂ ›∞ã. ﬁ°¬ã Âº ÓÍ£äÓã ‹∂ ™Ó£ÏòâFºâÓ£ô, Y˘£Mô „ü¯ÒFËú ‹™ÒKÇË£, ¸ä£° Òü¡ã ‰´Û£ä£M° ÂºÉA¨ÌâÓ „ü¡ÒFË¨˜MÏ ‹FËÒ£AJºÇ∞ã.

ËÏâÓ Ë£ÙàFô ﬁºâÓ „ü¡ÒF ı˜òÑC ‚°∂ ﬁÚÙ£∂ ‚°∂ ™ÓOı£Jü¡. ›˘£ô ‹∂ ™Ó£ÏÛMô¨Ù ‚°¯£ô ´ı¨ÙJ°¨Ò, ‹¨Ó™Ú£ÜÆ ÍÕË ÂøÉAô M¨˜ªã ‹Ñ≤¡àÓô, ™ı∞ M¨ÛMô ™ºAM¥ã ‚°¡ ›Jü¡. MıÍ£Úà ∂¨¯Jô ‹FËÒ£Ë ‡ú˜ ™Ó£NÙ£˜ò ‚áEÇ¨Ë AÜÏàÓÜÏ 150 IôLÚ˘£Ë ﬁºÇ∞ã ‚°¡ ÒFäHÏäÜÏ∂; ´ÒΩã Y˘ MıÍ£Úà¨Ó ‡ÙËÑ Íâ¨Óä ´£ÜÆÇ∞ ‹¬ÒFà∂MÜÏ£ô, ‹∂æã ‡ÙË ıòàÓ ‹¨ÒäHô Y˘£ ∏¨ˆâÓH° ‹àÓ¨ËÚ G¨Ù ‚°¯£ô, ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£Û ÍÇFËú ﬁâÓ ‚ÖCÚ ÒÇËÜ™Ó£∞ä¨ ÔËÛÉË¿Ç∞ MÛÜ¥ã. ‹´Ó ´ÔÛàFô, ‹ÛÍ£ÉË´Ò ‹ÛÍ ‡K¨ÒÚ£Ë ﬁºâÓ G¡ı˘ÉË¨˜ ÕÆÇ ™Ë£áÆºâÓ∂; ﬁÓ° M¨˜ı£Ë ËÏâÓ ‰â∂ ›á¥ËOô14 IôLÚ° ´ı¨ÙËú ﬁôÙ£™Ó£NÇËäÜÏ˘.

ﬁàÓ¨ËÚ ∫Ûá£¥Ë¨˜ ‚Fò™Ë£áÏ ı¨ËJô, ÒÛ£òâÓ ™£º˜£Ó£Û Ëºà∂ Y˘ä ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàFü∞ ∫°´˘ü¯ä£¨Ó ‚°∂ ‹Ó° ‡úÔ£Ü¥ Íâ¨ÓJ° MKı£ÇËã ‚˘ ıLª¡àFÚ∂. ‹É∞ ‹Ó° ∏ËòæÑ ™ÍÙæ ™Ò£àÓ ‡úÔ£Ü¥ ‡üàFJô £FÇ∞ã ∞¨¯ı£Ë ‡ú˜∂; ‹™ÒKÇË£æÏ° ÂäHÜÏ£´Ù£ ﬁ∂ 70 ÍÓMAÓàFü∞ã ‹FËÒ£Ë ‡ú˜∂. ›˘£ô ‡úÔ£Ü¥à ´Ó¨ıJô ËEÍÒ£˘ MKæ ‚°Óü∞ ÒÇË¿¨ÏÚ ı£õÇ¨Ëà ÓÛã Òü¡ã ‡¨ˆÇ∞ã ÒÇËO° ·FÚÉËOô ∫°´˘ü¯ã ´Ó¨ı. Ò£¯£Ë, ﬁ∂ ™ÍÚô¥àÓäÏ ´ıá¥Ò£˘£ô ‡üàF ™ÍÙM˘ÉË¨˜ ‹FËKÇË ™Íåªã. „üË˘´ı ﬁ∂ ‹FËÒ£AÇ ™Ë£á¥ ıºA¯∂; ›˘£ô ‹Ó° M¨˜æ Y˘£ ÕÙÓ˘ ∫ÓhÜÆô ‹¬Mà∂Ç ™Ë£áÆºÇ∞ã ∫°¬K¨ÒÑ ÍΩ¨Ë ∞¨¯â∂M¥ã ‹ôÙ∂ ÓËòâ∂ M¥ã.

Y˘£Mô ™Ó£NôÒÚÒ£Ç∞ıFô „üÜÏ ™ıüP, AÛ£Òäπ¯ÉËOô ﬁºâ∂ ﬁÏã™Úòâ∂ ıâÓ MıÍ£JË¨˜ ™Ë£áÏ IËä ™KÚ ™Ó£Nü∂¨¯ ﬁºäπä ¨ÏJ° ·FÚÉËú eÓ£˘ ‹øàÓàF° ÕÙã bòÒ£QÇËäÜÏ∂. ‹´Ó´ÔÛàFô „ü¡ÒFÚ£ô ∫°´˘£ÇA ™Ë£á¥™ÍôÙäÜÏ ™Ó£Nü∂¨¯ÒÚÒ£ÇËô ´£Ç∞ ∫°´£ô ™Ó£ÏòıÓü∞ã ıNJô¨Ù. ´ı¡MÓÒ£ËÇ √P˘£ô, Y˘£M° ™Ó£NôÒÚÒ£ÇËäÜÏ G¨Ù, πFÚ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ÍÒG¨ÙÇË£˘ G¨Ù¨ÒË¨˜ ´Ó£ü¡MäÓü∞ FÙ£Ë ıòÇËä ´£Û£ÜÏàF° ı°∫¨¯ ™ıÆäπË¨˜ ‡ºı£Ç∞ã F¯° ‡ú˜ ›õâÓ ∫Ûá£¥Ë¿ú ﬁøà∂Ñ™ÍôÙäÜ¥ú˜∂ .

Y˘£Mô ‡ú˜ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ∫Ûá£¥Ëú ‹™ÒKÇË£Mô ‡ú˜ ∫Ûá£¥Ë¿Ï°Ó£° ﬁ¨Úâ∂ ‡ú˜˘. ‡á¨ÒJô, ﬁÛá¥´Ò Â´ÛMÓ ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£Û ™ÍÚü£¥ËO˘£ôÓ£° ‡ºı£ÇËäÜ¥ú˜˘. Y˘ ‹™ÒKÇËä ™£º˜£Ó£ÛÉËú Â°¨¯ Â°¡ ÂàÓ GF Í£òâÓ H¨ÌäHô Â°¯£Ë ﬁ¡Aªú˜˘; ﬁFô Y˘ Òü¡ã ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã ÂÜ¥™Ò£àÓ∫ã Í£òâFºÇ∞ã „ü¡ÒF Íâ¨ÓË¨˜ ıˆÉ∞ã ™£ºÜ¥ ‹™ÒKÇË£ ﬁ°¬ã √¥ÓÙ£˘ ËÏQô ›õA¯∂. ‹´Ó ´ÔÛàFô, ﬁâÓ ™ÍÚô£¥ ™Ó£ÏòıÓüË£Ë Y˘ Òü¨¯Ú AˆÇË£CÚ ÒàFÚ ıÉAËú ÓÉË¿¨ÏÚ „ü¡ÒF ıºÒ£˘ÉË¨˜ ‹™ÒKÇË GFÚÑ Íâ¨ÓËOô ﬁ¥A°¯˘.

GFÚ ™ÔºÇËÆ ı˜òâ∂ú˜F° IËà ™ÓOı£˘ ™ıOä£¥ ‹™ÒKÇË£M° ™ıOÔ£Ü¥Ç ËÏQ° ‹FËKä£∞ã. ‹™ÒKÇË£M° Óü´£¨ÓÚ ÔÏäπ ËÌÇA° ü¯£Ç∞¨¯, Ô£ÜÆ° ™Ò£àÓ ‡úÔ£Ü¥ ‡üàFJô 6.4 ÍÓMAÓÒ£Ë ﬁºä∂ 2006ô 7.5 ÍÓMAÓà¨Ó ‚ÜÏÇ√¥ã. ﬁ°¬ã √¥ÓÙ£˘ ÍÓMAÓÉËú √Ï ‡Ï˘ÆÚ£˘ ıºÉË£ÙàFü∞ ∫°ËEä£ËÇ √¯ä¥A°¯˘. ‡ÙA° ‚ÖCÚ ∞FJô ‡ú˜ ™ıO ‡KGFËOô 75ô ﬁºâ∂ 80 ÍÓMAÓã ‹™ÒKÇË£M° ËÏ° ™ÍΩà∂¨Ë ﬁ¨Ï™ıO¨Ú GÛäπıÓü∞ ´Ó¨ıä¥A¯∂. ‹Ó£ı∂, Ô£ú Â°¡Ç∞ 2 HôLÚ° Ï£Ùò ™Ó£¨Ë ‹™ÒKÇË£Mü∞ ‡úıÛı£Ë ﬁºâÓ£ôÓ£° ‹∂ Fı£Ù£Ë£∂ ‚°¯ G¨Ù ‡ú˜∂. ™£º˜£Ó£Û ıôΩ˘ò MôLÚã ›ò. A¨˜° ﬁâÓ ÔÏäπÇ ËÌÇ∞ ü¯£Ç∞¨¯ 2010Ç∞ú 1.12 ÆKôLÚ° Ï£ÙòË˜£Ë ´£ËÙ£ã ‚°¡ã ﬁä™£ø∂ Ô£ÜÆ° ™Ò£àÓ ‡úÔ£Ü¥ ‡üàFJô 23 ÍÓMAÓÒ£˘ AÜÏàÓÜÏ 2.2 ÆKôLÚ˘£Ë ‡ú˜ ‹™ÒKÇË£M° Óü´£¨ÓÚ ËÏ°Ëú 8 ÆKôLÚ° Ï£ÙòË˜£Ë ‡ÚÛÇ√¥ã, ‹Ó£ı∂ ‹™ÒKÇË£M° ™Ò£àÓ ‡úÔ£Ü¥ ‡üàFJô 50 ÍÓMAÓàFü∞ ÍÒÒ£˘Ó£Ëä´£ËÇ √¥ã ‚°¡ ÒFäHÜ¥ú˜£ò.

‹™ÒKÇË ËÏ° G¨Ù¨Ò¨Ú ÍK™ÍåıÓü∞ Ô£ÜËú ‚öı˜Mü∞ Ó£ÒÓÒ£∞´Ò£ ‹âÓ˜Mü∞ ™£º˜£Ó£Û £Fäπ IË ‹FËÒ£Ë ﬁºÇ∞ã ‚°∂ A¨˜¬¨ÏÚ ËºàÓ£∞ã. ﬁ°¨¯Ç∞ ÍK™ÍåÚäÏ´ıá¥ã ‚°¯£ô ‡úÔ£Ü¥ ∫ÓhÜ¥ ´Ó¨ı, ∏Ëòæ Òü¡ã ™Ò£àÓ ‡úÔ£Ü¥ ‡üàFJô (GDP) 4 ÍÓMAÓÒ£Ëæú˜ GFÚ ü¯£Ç∞¨¯ ›AÚ¨ı £KÚ˜Mü∞ ∞¨¯ÇËäÏ ´ıá¥ã. ›˘£ô ÍK™ÍåÓΩÇ∞ Âº ÓÍ£äÓã Ó£ÒÓä¥ã ‚°¯£ô, Ã´Ë£˜ ™ºÒâÓ G¨Ù¨Ú ‡¡FªÏ° ‚FòÇË ﬁâÓ ™ıÜ¥ÇËú ™Ò£àÓ ‡úÔ£Ü¥ ‡üàFJô 9 ÍÓMAÓàFü∞ ÍÒÒ£˘ ı¨ËJô ﬁºä∂ ´Ó¨ıä¥ã.

™ÍΩà∂ÒF GΩ¨ıJ° ÍÒG¨Ù ‹FËKà∂ıºã G¨Ù cÆà∂Ç ™Ë£á´Ï ﬁºä∂ ‹™ÒKÇË ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàFô ‡ú˜ ™ºãÍÒYÛü¯ Ó°¨ÒËOô Â°¡Ó£°. ‰â∂ ›á¥Ë¿Ç∞ ∫°π, ‹™ÒKÇË É∞Ñ Íâ¨Ó ∞IN ™ıÆà∂, 7 ÆKôLÚ° Ï£ÙòË¨˜ ∂¨Ïà∂Ç ËÜÆÚ H°˘ò, ‹™ÒKÇËä ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã ™KÚ ‹˜Mü∞ ÒâÓG¨Ù¨Ú Ë£ÌMô¨Ù. ﬁÓü∞Ç Ë£ÛÌã ™Ó£ÏòÑCÚ£˘ ıÜÆMAÓÇ ∞¨¯äπÇËú ÒàFÚ KÍòö ı£KÚàF˘£ô ∫°™˘¥ÇËäÜÏÓ£ôÓ£°. ﬁâÓ ™ıÜ¥ÇËú ∞¨¯âÓ Ë£Ù ıÜÆ MAÓÉË¨˜ ‚FòÒ¨¯Ç∞ ﬁÜ¥Ñ ™Í°¯∂Ï°, ‹™ÒKÇË i¥Ëú ËÜ¥ã Íâ¨ÓJô ∞Iõ „üÏÇ√ÆÚ ı¨ËJô GFÚ ·Ç∞Mä¨ ıˆÉA˘. Âº ›åM°Æ ﬁâÓÇ ∞INJ° ‹˜æ AÜÏàÓÜÏ 5 ÆKôLÚ° Ï£ÙòËú ‹ôÙ∂ ‹™ÒKÇË ‡úÔ£Ü¥ ™Ò£àÓ ‡üàFJô 45 ÍÓMAÓÒ£∞ã. ﬁâÓä πúOMıÛã Óü´£¨ÓÚ i¥ËO° Íâ¨Ó ÒFäHü∞ ﬁ¨ÏJÙ£˘ ´ı¡£Ü¨Ï, ∞IN ı˜òÑC ‹¨ÏÚà ™Ó£ÏÉAÚ 1997ô ﬁºâ∂ iÜÆ° M¨ÙËú ÓÉËú cáÏ Ë£Ù ıÛÙ£ü¡ä ´£ÇAô ™Ó£ÏòâFºâÓ£ô ‚äÆ ﬁºâFºÇ∞ã ‚°¨ÓÇ ËÌÇAÜ¥ ‹Ó´˘£¥ ÂäH¥ıÓ° ÕÙã ™¯äÜÏÓ£∞ã.

ﬁâÓ GFÑ ™ÍôıàF° ı˜òÑC -- ™ÍÚü¨ËÚ£˘ ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã ‚°¡ã √¯Ù£ã-- ‡á¨Ò ‡ÙA° ™£º˜£Ó£Û GËõæËOô ﬁºâ∂ ∫üPΩã Ò£¡ÜÏ Ó°¨Ò¨ÚÇ ™Ë£á¥ú˜∂. ‡Ó£ÛÌÒ£Ë, ÍeàFÚ πúOMıÛÉËú ÒEÇ ËÌÇ∞ Òü¡ã ı£ÛÇËÌÇAÙ£˘ ·FÚÉËú ﬁÛá¥ã ‡á¨ÒÚ£˘ ‹òàÓàFô Ôıãò 2005ô Êò ›áÆü∞ ∫°π ﬁºâÓ¨ÓMÏ ∞¨¯æ ‚°¡Ó£° √¡A°¯˘. ‹™ÒKÇË eÜC Ôıãò 2001ô ™Ó£ÏÉAÚ H°˘ò, ´Òü£ò¨ı ™ÍåÚ£Ó ™Ó£NÙ£˜òËO° ‡á¨ÒÚ£˘ ÒEÇ ËÌÇ∞ ·FÚã 5 ™Í°¥Ëú ∞¨¯ı£Ë´ı ›AMÜÏ˘. ›J¬ã, ‡üàFF¯´˘£ ﬁ´Ó Ë£ÙàFô 13.5 ÍÓMAÓã ı˜òâ∂ú˜∂.

2005ã ›áÆô ·FÚã ı£É∞´ı£ò ÜÆÚLô 2 IôLÚ° ´ò ‹FËÒ£Ë ﬁºâÓ˘ò. ›˘£ô ‹∂ ıÛÙ£ü¡ä ´£Ç¨Ë MÏ IËÇ ∞¨¯ı£˘∂ ›∞ã. 49 Ò£Ó Ë£ÙàFü∞ ´ÒüÜ¥ eÜCJô, ÍÛ£ÍK ‹FËKäπ 3.1 ÍÓMAÓÒ£Ë ‡ú˜∂. Ò£òÑ 1991ô ﬁºâ∂ „äÛô 1995 ı¨ÛJÙ£˘ Ë£Ùã, ‹ä™£ø∂ "´ı¨ÙËú ﬁôÙ£ eÜπÇË£Ùã" ‚°¡ ‹¨Ï ™Ò£N ≈ÜÏäÜÏFô, ´ı¨Ùı£åäπ ‚°∂ 7.8 ÍÓMAÓã ‹FËKàÓ∂. Ôıãò 2001ô ﬁºâ∂ ÆÍãò 2005 ı¨ÛJÙ£˘ Ë£ÙàFô ™ºÇËã 2.7 ÍÓMAÓÒ£Jü¡. ËÏâÓ ›á¥ ´ı¨Ùä ™ºÇËã 1.5 ÍÓMAÓãÓ£° ﬁºâÓ∂. ∫â¨ÓÚ eÜCJ°´£∂ ·FÚä ÜÆÚLô ‚áEÇ¨Ë Â´Û πúOJô 3.5 ÍÓMAÓã ‹FËã Ë£ÜÆÚ∂.

Âº ÒâÓ G¨ÙJô ﬁºâ∂ eÜC ‹¨Ïªã Âº πúOJô ‹™ÒKÇË£ 8 IôLÚ° ´ı¨ÙË¨˜Ç ∞¨¯ı£ËÇ ™Ë£á¥ú˜∂ ‚°¡ ÒFäHÏäÜ¥ú˜∂. ´ÒΩã, ´Ó£ü¡MÇËäÜÏ ´ı¨ÙË¿ã IËÇ ∞¨¯ı£˘ ·FÚ MAÓÉË¨˜ ™Ë£á¥ú˜¨ı ›∞ã. ∞¨¯◊FÚã ıˆÉ∞ã Wal-Mart (IËä ™KÚ ‹™ÒKÇË ´ı¨Ù™Ë£¥Ç∞ã ‹¨Òäπ) πFÚ ´ı¨ÙËOô 44 ÍÓMAÓã „ü¥àFªú˜∂. ﬁÓüA¨ÏJô ™¸˘Ûô ´Ò£ÜÏ£òv Fı£L° MOãHô ‡ú˜∂.

ÍÛ£ÍK ∞¥ã ıºÒ£˘ã ‡á¨Ò ËÌÇWÜÆô ‰â∂ ›á¥Ë˜£Ë ™Ó£ÏòÑCÚ£Ë iõÑCÚ¨Ïâ∂ú˜∂. ‹™ÒKÇË ﬁôÙÉËO° ËÏ° ≤¨Ò, ÌiÇËà¨Ó ËÌÇAô ‚¥à∂Ç ™Ë£áÏ H°˘ºã, 35.7 ÍÓMAÓàÓ£ô ËÏâÓ Ô£°∞ ›á¥ËOô ‹FËKà∂ú˜∂. ÓQäÜÏ ´ÍIäπ MAÓã ´£ºÇ∞ä Hâ¨ÓÚ Ë£ÙàFô ∫Óô∫¨¯Ú£Ë ‚FòÒ£¯£Ë ‡ú˜∂.

Ag°v£¬¨ÏÚ "πFò "

™äÛıK 16, 2005ô ‹™ÒKÇË ´ÓCÚ ÍÜÏÒ°¯àFü∞ Ó° ‹¨ÛÚ£á¥ ‹PÇ¨Ë¨Ú ™Ë£¥àÓ´£∂, ÒàFÚ KÍòö ı£KÚàF° Ó¨ÙıÛ£˘ ›Ù° Ag°v£° ‹™ÒKÇË ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàFô ﬁºâÓ CÙ ÍÒYÛü¯ √¡£¥Ë¨˜ ≤ÜÆÇË£ÜÆ˘£ò. ∏Ëò´ı£ò ™ÍÙM˘ÉËOô IË ‹FËÒ£˘ ™ºÇËã ‚°∂ ÓQÚ£ò ´ÍIäπ MAÓàFô 2004ã ›á¥ 1 ÍÓMAÓÒ£ËÇ ∞¨¯â∂ú˜∂ ‚°¡ ≤ÜÆÇË£ÜÆ˘£ò; ﬁ∂ ∫â¨ÓÚ Õ°¡ ÓÍ£äÓÉËOô AÜÏàÓÜÏ 7 ÍÓMAÓã ‚°¡ ﬁºâÓ∂. "ﬁôÙÉËO° M¨ÙËOô ËÏâÓ CÙ ›á¥Ë˜£Ë ‹FË „ü¯ã ﬁºâÓ´£FΩã" i¥Ë¿Ç∞ "ËEÍÒ£˘ ÕÙÓ˘ ›Ó£ÚÉËú" A¨ÏàFºâÓ˘; ﬁâÓ ›Ó£ÚÉËú "™ºã£Ωã iÜ¥eÓ£˘ ËÏ° ÕÙã Fºãä ™¯äÜÏ˘; ﬁ¨ı ™£∂ı£Ë πFÚ ÕÙÓ˘ ∫ÓhÜÆü∞ ´Ó¨ıÚ£˘ ´ÓCÚ ´ÍIäπÇËO° ´ÍòÒà¨Ó ‹FËä¥àÓMô¨Ù." ´ı¡MÓÒ£Ë √P˘£ô, Âº ´£L ÕÙÓ˘ ™ºÇËã „üÜ¥ú˜∂; ‡á¨ÒÚ£˘ ™ÍôıàFô MKı£ÇËã „üÏMô¨Ù.

ıEËà ∂¨¯Jô, ÕÙÓ˘àFüË£˘ ∫Óh¥ "´ÔòàFÚ£˘ ´ıËàFô" ∫°´˘PÇ ™Ë£á¥ú˜∂ ‚°¯£Ωã, ﬁÙ£ÉËú Òü¡ã Ì £åÑÍôË¿Ç∞ ﬁ¨Úâ∂ ‹∂ ﬁô¨Ù ‚°¡ ‹ıò ≤ÜÆÇË£ÜÆ˘£ò. "ﬁ∂ ‹Í£Ó£ÛÌÒ£∞ã: ﬁàÓ¨ËÚ G¨Ùä£¥ 1975ô ﬁºâÓ∂´£°¯ Âº ›ˆÒ£˘ ÒâÓG¨Ù ‡ºı£Ë Ë£ÛÌÒ£Ë ﬁºâÓ∂. ıEËã πFÚ ∫Óh¥Ë¨˜ ™ÍåÚ ÓÚÇËã Ë£Ü¥ı∂Ï°, ''™ÍÙ¨ı ∞¨¯äFô Ëı˘ã ™ÍΩà∂A°¯∂''. ‚˘ ‹ıò ´ÒΩã ∞PäHÜÏ£ò. ‹ıò Ëºà¨Ó MKı£ËÇ √¯Mô¨Ù ‚°¯£Ωã, ﬁâÓ M¨˜æ IË ‹Í£Ó£ÛÌÒ£˘∂; ‹∂æã ‹ıò ‹PÇ¨Ë ™Ë£¥àÓ Ë£ÙàFô ıEË ÕÙÓ˘ã MKı¨Ïªã ‚°¡ ‚Fò£òÇËäÜÆºâÓ ‹™ÒKÇËä ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã Õ°¡ ›á¥Ëú eÜCÇ ËÜÏàFô ﬁºâÓ∂.

ﬁâÓ G¨ÙJô ´ÒΩã CÙ ‹Í£Ó£ÛÌ √¡£¥Ë¿ã ﬁºâÓ˘. √ÜÏ£ÜC KÍòö ‹¨Òäπ ∞¡AÚ Ë£Ù ıÜÆMAÓà¨Ó ‹FËKàFºâÓ ´£FΩã√Ï, cáÏ Ë£Ù É∞äàFÛ MAÓã ™Ó£Ïòâ∂ ÍKâ∂ ™Ë£á¥Ó£° ﬁºâÓ∂. ﬁàÓ¨ËÚ "ÛâÓ ∫¨¯Jô ‚Fò£òÇËäÏ£Ó ‡ÙË àFÛ (world bond) Íâ¨ÓJ° ´£Ç∞ "™Ó£Ïòâ∂ Âº πFÛ£Ë ‡ú˜∂" ‚°¡ Ag˘¢v£° ‹PMàÓ£ò.

¸®° 2005ô GËõàFÚ ‡¨Û Â°Pô, Ag°v£°, "‹™ÒKÇË Ëº◊ÙàF° cáÏË£Ù ıÜÆ MAÓÉËú ËÏâÓ ÊÛ£áÆô Ôã∫¨ÏÚ ÒàFÚ GFËú MAÓàFô 200 ‹Æä¨Ï πúO ‹FËÒ£Ë ﬁºâÓ´£FΩã, ™ÓOı£Ë´ı ∫°´˘£ÆJôÙ£Ó Ó°¨Ò¨Ú ™Ë£áÆºâÓ∂. àÓ£á¥ Ëº◊Ù àFÛÉËú ÕÙã A¨ÏÇ∞ã ıºı£å ﬁä™£ø∂ AÜÏàÓÜÏ 4 ÍÓMAÓÒ£Ë ‡ú˜∂; ﬁ∂ ÊÛ£áÆü∞ ∫°π ﬁºâÓ¨Ó MÏ 80 ‹Æä¨Ï πúO ∞¨¯ı£∞ã." Òü¨¯Ú cáÏË£Ù MAÓÉËú ﬁ°¬ã √¥ÓÙ£˘ ™Ó£¨ËJô ÍK¨ıÇ Ëá¥ú˜˘.

∞¨¯âÓ ›à∂¨ÏÚ ËÏ° eÓ£˘ cáÏË£Ù MAÓÉËOô ÍKı£˘∂ ∫ÓhÜÏ£˜òË¨˜ ‹FË ›àÓ£˘ ËÏ° GFÚàFô ∫Óh¥ ™ÍåÚà …á¥ã Ë£ÛEËOô Â°¯£∞ã. ﬁÓ˘£ô ıÜÆMAÓÉËú ∞¨¯A°¯˘. "ıºı£åÇ∞à ´ÓÏô'' ‚°∂ ÓQÚ£ò Ë£äπ G¡ı˘ÉËú Òü¡ã ﬁˆäπ £∂Ë£äπ GFÚÉË¿ú (Hedge Fund) ÌàF° £åÑÍô ‹FËÒ£˘∂ ÕÙã ‚¥à∂ÇË£ÜÏä¥ã. ﬁ¨ı ÍÛ£ÍKÇ∞ã ´ÒÙ£˘ ›à∂ÇË˜ü¯ MAÓàFô ıºı£¨Ú ‚Fò£òÇ∞ã ∫ÓhÜÏ£˜òËOÏIºâ∂ ∞PäHÏàÓÇË ı˜ÉË¨˜ ™ü¡Ç™Ë£ú˜ ﬁÚΩÒ£˘¨ıÚ£Ë ‡ú˜˘. ‚˘´ı ‹¨ı C¡£°¨Ò ∫ÓhÜÏ£˜òË˜£ôÓ£° ™¯∫Æªã. ﬁâÓ ´Ó¨ı¨Ú ÃòàF ™ÍåıÓü∞ ﬁˆäπ £∂Ë£äπ GF ´ÒÙ£˜òËú √¥ÓÙ£˘ ﬁÙ£àFüË£Ë CÇËô ı£åâÓ ıEË Õ´Ù££ÚÉË¨˜ ¨ËÚ£á¥ ÊÛ˜æ Ó°QÑ¨Í ı£åäπÇË¨˜ä Ú°¥àÓ ∫ÆªÒ£ ‚°¡ Ë£Ì ∫ü¥A°¯˘ò; ‹FËÒ£˘ ﬁÙ£à¨Ó ™ü¡Ç™Ë£¥ÇË Ù ÍâÓòäÉËOô ‹¨ı Óı¯£Ëä ´£åM¥A°¯˘ ‚˘ ÒFäHÏäÜ¥ú˜∂" ‚°¡ ‹ıò M˜ÇA˘£ò.

´ı¡MÓÒ£Ë √P˘£ô, ﬁâÓ ∫°´˘£ÆÚü¯ GËõæä´£ÇA° Ë£ÛÌã GF ÕÙÓ˘ã ‡ÙËã ∫øı∂ã ™Ó£ÏòÑCÚ£Ë ıÜÏIÜ¥ ﬁÙ£à¨Ó ‹FËÒ£Ë ™¯ ∫Úôı∂, ∫°π A¨ÏàÓ ‹´Ó FºãÇA¨ÏÇ∞ã iÓàFüË£Ë ﬁä™£ø∂ ›àÓ£˘ ∫Óh¥ËOô ﬂ¥Ïæã ÓÚ£Û£Ë ﬁºÇA¯∂.

ËÏâÓ ›á¥ Ò£òÑ 10ã ´ÓF GËõàFÚ ‡¨Û Â°Pô ÓM´ÚüË ﬁºâÓ ÒàFÚ KÍòö ∞øM° Ó¨ÙıÛ£˘ ™° ™ò˘°´Ë (Ben Bernanke) Ó°¬¨ÏÚ Ëı˘à¨Ó Ag°v£¬¨ÏÚ "πFK°" £ô ™ÍΩàF˘£ò. ËÏ°FºäH ™Ë£¥àÓô ı¨ËJô ü¯£Ç∞¨¯ 1996ô ™Ò£àÓ ‡úÔ£Ü¥ ‡üàFJô 1.5 ÍÓMAÓàFô ﬁºâ∂ ﬁ°¡ 6 ÍÓMAÓã ‚°¡ M¨Ûı£Ë ‡ÚòâÓ∂ üP MıÛÒ£ËÇ √PÚH°˘ò, ™ò˘°´Ë ﬁ∂ Âº ‹™ÒKÇË HÛÑC¨˘ ÒÜ¥ã ‹ôÙ ‚°¡ ıLª¡àF˘£ò. "ËÏâÓ ÓÍ£äÓàFô Ù Ò£¡ÜÏ ÍÇFËO° ﬁ¨Ìäπ ´ÍIäπÇË£˘ ‡ÙË ‹OäHô ËEÍÒ£˘ ‹FËKä¨ „ü¥àFªú˜∂ ‚°¡ Ô£° ı£FÏàÓÚ£ò; ﬁ∂Ó£° ‹™ÒKÇË ÔÏäπ ËÌÇA° ü¯£Ç∞¨¯ Òü¡ã Âäπ¨ÒJô ‡ÙAô ﬁ°¡ GÙæã cáÏË£Ù ıÜÆMAÓàFô ‡ú˜ ∞¨¯âÓ Ó°¨Ò ﬁÛá¨Ïªã M˜Ç∞ã." ﬁ∂ Âº ‡ÙËâÓøMÚ ‹˜æÇ∞ ePÚ ´ÍIäπ; ﬁâÓÑ ´ÍIäπ √¥Óô ‹™ÒKÇË£Mü∞ ‹Ó° ™ÍΩà∂ÒF GΩ¨ı¨Ú ÍÒ£OäÓü∞ ´ıáÆÚ GF £åÑÍ¨Ù ™Ë£¥àÓ£Ωã, ‹´Ó´ÔÛàFô ıÜÆ MAÓà¨Ó ∞¨¯ı£Ë ¨ıà∂ú˜Ó£ô, ‹äÌã GFÚ ∫ÓhÜÆü∞ä Ú°¥àÓ ∫ÆÚMô¨Ù. Ò£¯£Ë, ﬁäÌÉËú ∏Ëò¨ı ‹FËKÇËæã Òü¡ã i¥Ëú ‹¨ÒäÓü∞ã Ú°¥àÓäÜÏ˘.

™ò˘°´Ëª¨ÏÚ Ëºà∂ÇËú G¨Ù¨ÒJ° Òü™¯£º ∫ÇAÚ √¡£Ü¨Ïªã ≤ÜÆÇË£Ü¥A°¯˘: ‹™ÒKÇË£Mü∞ú ıºã GFÚÉËú ‡üàF ∫ÓhÜÆü∞ä Ú°¥àÓä¥ıFô¨Ù; ‹äÆÑ ™ÍåÚ ∫ÆâÓ£ô ‡ÙË Íâ¨ÓJô ™£ºÜËú ıÛæ ™ºAJºÇ∞ã; ‹¨Ó™Ú£ÜÆ ‹™ÒKÇË ıEËä ü¯£Ç∞¨¯ bòâ∂ MÜÆºÇ∞ã. Ò£¯£Ë ‹âGFÚÉËú ™ÍÙM˘ ‹¨ÒäπÇË¿Ç∞ä ´£åM¥ıÓ£ô, ‹ıü¨¯™Ú£ÜÆ √¥ÓÙ£˘ ﬁ¯Ç∞ÒFËú ´Ó¨ıÚ£A°¯˘; ‹Ó˘£ô FºäHÇ ™Ë£¥ÇË ´ıáÆÚ ™Ó£¨ËJô H˜æ ‹FËÒ£ı∂Ï°, ﬁ°¬ã √¥ÓÙ£˘ ‹˜Mü∞ GFÚ ‡ú£åÑÍΩã ´Ó¨ıä¥A¯∂.

Financial Times ﬁ° ™£º˜£Ó£Û GºÛ£˘ Martin Wolf ¸®° 13, 2005ô "CÇË˘àF° Mâ¨ÓÚ£˘ πFò" (The paradox of thrift) ‚°¯ Ó¨ÙäHô Âº ËÜ¥¨Û¨Ú ™ıOJÜ¥ú˜£ò. "‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàFô M´˘£ÓÒ£˘ GËõæËú ÔÏâ∂ ™Ë£áÆºÇA°¯˘: cáÏ Ë£Ù £∂Ë£äπ àFÛÉËOô ıÜÆMAÓã ∞¨¯â∂ú˜∂; £∂Ë£ä£˘ Òü¡ã ›à∂ G¨¯âÓ ∫Óh¥Ë¿Ç∞ ﬁ¨Ï´Ú ﬁºÇ∞ã ıÛMô ∞¨¯âÓ ﬁ¨Ï™ıOËú, IË ‹FËÒ£˘ GFÚä ü¯£Ç∞¨¯Ëú, IËä ™KÚ ‡ÙË ‹˜MÙ£˘ "ÍÒYÛü¯ G¨ÙËú", Í£Ó£ÛÌÒ£˘ G¨Ù¨ÒËOô ﬁ¨ı ™£ºâFJÛ£. ›˘£ô ‚°˘ ÔÏÇA¯∂? ≤ºÉËÇ √P°, ﬁÓü∞ M¨Ï ıΩıü¯ ∫ÓhÜ¥ä H°˘EJΩã, ÓMÛæã ∞¨¯âÓ ÌiÇË∫ã ﬁ°¬ã √¥ÓÙ£˘ ÂºÉA¨ÌâÓ ™£º˜£Ó£ÛÉËú ‡ú˜ G¨ÙJô, ‹Óü∞ ‚FÛ£Ë ‡ÙË˜Mô √¥ÓÙ£˘ ´ÍIäπÇË£˘ Mºäã ‡ú˜∂''.

"ÓüË£Ùà¨Ó πKâ∂ ™Ë£ú˜ ´ıá¥ã ‚°¯£ô, Ô£ã 1930Ë¿Ç∞ FºãHÑ ™ÍôÙ´ıá¥ã. "CÇË˘àF° Mâ¨ÓÚ£˘ πFò" ‚°∂ GÚ£ÚÒ£˘ ‚Fò£òäHü∞ ∫ÛÌ˘£∂ ‚°´Ó£¥, YÛ£Ë JüC ™ü¯ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ıôΩÔ¨Û ™£¡àÓı¨ÛJô, Ó£òeË gFÚ£Ë, Óà∂ı£òàÓ gFÚ£Ë Òü¡ã Ô¨Ï∫¨¯gFÚ£Ë ´¸£° ´ÒÔ£òÜ ´Ë°R° (John Maynard Keynes) ™º ÒâÓ G¨ÙÇ∞ M¨ÏË£µã ı¨ËJô 1936ô ™ıOJÏäÜÏ ´ı¨Ù üPÚ ™£∂Óà∂ıã, ıÜÆ Òü¡ã ÌÇ ´Ë£Ü£¥ ‚°¯ ÀL°Æ Ò¡ÇËäÏ ´ıáÆÚ Ëºà∂ã ›∞ã. ÓQÚ£ò ∂¨¯¨Úä ™£ºàÓı¨Û ‹∂ ∫Óh¥ ™Íåªã ™Ó£¨Ë¨ÚMÏ ‹FËÒ£Ë ´ÍIÇË Mºãπı∂ Í£àFÚ´Ò ‚°¡ ı£F¥A¯£ò. ﬁ∂Ó£° πFò, ÓQÔòË¿Ç∞ Ô°¨ÒÚ£˘∂ ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàFü∞ ´Ò£ÍÒ£˘Ó£ËÙ£ã. ﬁ°¡ Âº πFÚ IôLQÚàF° ›ÛãàFô ´Ë°R° ‚ÑÍKÇ¨Ë ™K∂ã ™£ºàÓÒ£˘´ÓÚ£∞ã." ™ı£ôH° ËºàF°Æ Ô£ã eá¥ã "Âº ´Ë°CÚ ‡ÙAô ı£õâ∂ ıºA´¯£ã."

´Òã´£ÇË£Ë £òàÓ£ô ﬁ∂, ‹∂æã ‡ÙA° ∫°˘E GFÚ ™ÍåFàÓ£ÜË¿ú Â°P° Ó¨ÙC¯âÓ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ıòÌ¨˘Ú£˜KÏIºà∂ ıºã, Âº ‹Í£Ó£ÛÌÒ£˘ ∫Æı£Ëà ´Ó£°¡ã. ‡ÙËÑ Íâ¨ÓJ° MÚäπÇËú, ﬁÛá¥ ÓÍ£äÓÉË¿Ç∞ IËÑ C¯ä£˘ ı˜òÑC ﬁºÇ∞ã ‚°¯ ∫°ËEäπÇËú ‹¨˘à∂ã ﬁºâÓ´£FΩã, ‹ıò ∫Ææ¨ÛÚ£Ë √¡ı∂ ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã 1930ËOô ´ÛN¨ı „ü¥àFÚ ÓÍ£äÓàFô ﬁºâÓ ‹´Ó HÛÑC¨˘Ë¨˜àÓ£° ‚Fò™Ë£á¥ú˜∂ ‚°¡ √PJºÇA¯£ò. ‹ıò √¡ã "´Ë°CÚ ‡ÙËã" ‚°∂ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ÒâÓG¨Ù ﬁºâÓ ‡ÙËã ÒÜ¥ã ﬁôÙ£Òô, ıEËä £∂Ë£äπ ∫¨¯¨Ú ‡ÚòàFÚ ‡ÙËã, ﬁ¡FJô ´£ºÇ∞ ﬁÜ¥Ñ ™Í°¯ ™ºã ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ÍÇFË¿Ç∞ ﬁ¨Ï´Ú ›õâÓ ÃÍôËú ﬁºâÓ ‡ÙËÒ£∞ã.

"ıÜÆMAÓ πFò" ‚°∂ üP Òü™¯£º ∞ä£åæ ›vF´ÛLÚ KÍòö ıÉAJ° Ó¨Ùıò Ian Macfarlane ›ô ∫°¨ıÇËäÜ¥ú˜∂. ÒÇ£ò´Ù¬¨ÏÚ ËºàF°Æ, "‡K GF ﬁºÇ∞ã Ô£¥ËOô ™Ó£ÏÉA, ´ÓCÚ ´ÍIäπÇËú „° ‹âÔ£¥ËOô ´ÓCÚ ∫ÓhÜ¨ÏMÏ IË ‹FËÒ£Ë ﬁºÇA¯∂ ‚°∂ üP ∞Mäπ Ë£ÜÆ M˜ÇËã ‹OäFô IËà FºäFËÛÒ£˘ M¨Ï A¨ÏÇËÇ √¥ã." ›CÚ Ô£¥Ëú £KÚ ‡K GF¨ÚÇ ™Ë£áÆºÇ∞ã ´ÔÛàFô Òü¯ Ô£¥Ëú ü¯£Ç∞¨¯JôÓ£° ËÜÏ£Úã ™ÍÚô¥ã.

"´ı¡ ‚âÓ Ô£¥ã ü¯£Ç∞¨¯Jô ﬁÚÉËà ÓÚ£Û£Ë ﬁô¨Ù ‚°¯£ô, ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã H°˘ò Âº Wõ´Ô£ÇAÚ Fº∞Ñ≤ºú ÍKMô ∏¨ˆâ∂ ´ÍIäHü∞ ∫°HºâÓ Ìà¨ÓMÏ ∫ÓhÜ¥Ç∞ ∫°HºâÓ Ìã ‹FËÒ£Ë ﬁºÇ∞ã G¨Ù „üÜ¥M¥ã. ∏Ëò´ı£òËú, ıEËò, ‹ÛÍ£ÉËã ‚°¡ HKæËú ∫øı∂ã ™ÍÙıNÇËà ÓÚ£ÛË ﬁºÇ∞ã, ‡ÙË ´ÍIäH° ıÛ¨ı IËà F¯¨ÒªÏ° Ô¥G¨ÙJô ¨ËÚ£¿ã Ô£¥ËúÓ£° ‹àÓ¨ËÚ ü¯£Ç∞¨¯Ë¨˜ ™ÍÚü¥à∂ã. (Ian Macfarlane, "What are Global Imbalances" Reserve Bank Bulletin October 2005).

ﬁâÓ ∞ä£åM°Æ, ‹™ÒKÇË ü¯£Ç ∞¨¯Ë¿ã ËÏ°Ë¿ã, ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£Û ı˜òÑC¨Ú ÓÇË¨ıÇËæã, ´ÍIäπ MAÓà´Ó£¥ ÂäH¥ã´£∂ ∫ÓhÜ¥ Íâ¨ÓËú ü¯£Ç∞¨¯Jô Gü∞ã G¨ÙJô "Wõ´Ô£ÇAÚ Fº∞Ñ≤ºú" ‡ÙËä™£º˜£Ó£Û ÒâÓG¨Ù ÓMòÇËæã ´Ó¨ıä¥ã. 1930ËOô ﬁàÓ¨ËÚ G¨Ù¨Ú ‚Fò™Ë£áÏ´£∂, ´Ë°v ‹ÛÍ£ÉË ™ÍÙM˘ÉË¨˜ ‹FËKà∂ ∫ÓhÜ¥ ∞¨¯M˘£ô ‡ºı£˘ Ú¬ú˜ ´Ó¨ıËO° ü¯£Ç∞¨¯Ë¨˜ ÍÒ£OÇË ∫Æªã ‚°¡ã √P˘£ò. ﬁä™£ø∂ Ô£ã ∏Ëò´ı£ò Ó¨Ù¨ÒJÙ£˘ ´Ë°CÚ ∫¨¯¨Ú ™Ë£á¥ú´˜£ã; ﬁFô ∞¨¯âÓ ıÜÆ MAÓÉË¿ã, ‹FËKÇ∞ã ËÏ°Ë¿ã ‡ú˜˘.

Êò ‡ÙËâÓøMÚ GF ™ÔºÇËÆ

ﬁöMÓàFô £òàÓ£ô, HÛÑC¨˘J° ‹Æä¨Ï ‹™ÒKÇË£Mô ﬁô¨Ù ‚°∂ ™ÓOı£∞ã. ‹™ÒKÇË ™ÍΩà∂ÒF GΩ¨ıJ˘∂ã ËÏQ° ‹FËKäπã, i¥ ËÜ¥Óô ∂¨¯Jô ‡ú˜ ∞Iõ Òü¡ã ‹™ÒKÇË ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàFô ™ºAıºã GFÚ ∫Ûá£¥Ëú ‹¨˘à∂ã ‡ÙË ™£º˜£Ó£Û ∫¨¯ ÂÜ¥™Ò£àÓàFΩã ı˜òâ∂ ıâFºÇ∞ã ıNı¨ËËOô Ë£Ìä¥ã ›õâÓ HÛÑC¨˘ËO° ™ıOä£¥ ›∞ã.

1997-98ô ›CÚ ™ÔºÇËÆ ™ıÆàÓ´£∂, ‹¨˘à∂ÙË ∞ø; ‹∂ ‡á¨ÒJô "›CÚ" ™ÔºÇËÆ ‹ôÙ --‹Ó£ı∂ ÓÇË Íâ¨ÓËú ﬁ°¨Ò, ´£L ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıã ‹ôÙ∂ ‹ä™£ø∂ √¯äÜÏ Òü¯ M˜ÇËÉËú ‹ôÙ-- ›˘£ô ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàFü∞ú ﬁºÇ∞ã ∫Ûá£¥ËO° M¨˜æ ‚°¡ M˜ÇAÚ∂. ﬁâÓ ∫Ûá£¥Ëú ∫ÓLô ÓÉË¨˜ ›CÚä ∞FJô ™ıOä¥àFÇ ™Ë£áÏ˘; H°˘ò ÛwÚ ËÏ°FºäHÇ ™Ë£¥àÓô ™ÍåÚ∫ÆÚ£∂ ´£˘¨Ò, ‹Ó° H°˘ò ‡ÙË GFÚ ∫¨¯Jô ™ÔºÇËÆ ‚°¡ã, ‹™ÒKÇË ﬁˆäπ £∂Ë£äπ GFÚã (Hedge fund), cáÏË£Ù ÕÙÓ˘ ™Ë£¥Ç∞ÒF (Long Term Capital Management) ›AÚ¨ı ™ÍäÏãò 1998ô ﬁôÙ£™Ó£NâÓ¨Ò ›AÚ¨ı ‹¥à∂ ÔÏâÓ GËõæËú ›J˘.

‹âÓ ™ÔºÇËÆ ™ıOä¥ã ı¨Û, AˆÇ∞ ›CÚ ∞F ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàF° M¨Ûı£˘ ı˜òÑCªü¯ ∞FÚ£Ë ﬁºâÓ∂; 1990ËO° ∫Óô ∞FJô ‡ÙË ı˜òÑCJô AÜÏàÓÜÏ 50 ÍÓMAÓàFü∞ ™£¡ä¨ ™Ë£áÆºâÓ∂. ‚˘´ıÓ£° ‡ÙË ıÉA ‹¨Ó "Âº ™£º˜£Ó£Û ‹FÍÚã" ‚°¡ ‹¨ˆàFºâÓ∂. ›˘£ô ™ÔºÇËÆ „üÜÏæÏ°, IËÇ Ë¥¨ÒÚ£˘ ≤ºÇËã „üÜÏ∂. ∫Óh¥ bMÛÒ£Ë ÍKâ∂, WõG¨Ù¨Ú ‚åFMÜÏ∂. 1997-98Ç∞ H°˘ò ›CÚ£Mô, ¸ä£°, Y˘£¨ı ÓMÛ Òü¯ ﬁÏÉËOô, ∫Óh¥ ™Ò£àÓ ‡úÔ£Ü¥ ‡üàF ÍÓMAÓ πúOJô 7 Òü¡ã 8 Ç∞ ﬁ¨ÏJô W´ˆ ÍKâÓ∂. ‹Ó£ı∂ ™Ò£àÓ ‡úÔ£Ü¥ ‡üàF 35 ÍÓMAÓàFô ﬁºâ∂ AÜÏàÓÜÏ 25 ÍÓMAÓàFü∞ ıâÓ∂.

Ù ´Ë°RÚ M˜ÇËÉË¨˜ ´£Ù´ı, Ò£Ç£ò´Ù¬¨ÏÚ M˜ÇË∫ã, ‚É∞ ™Ó£ÏÉË ´ıá¥´Ò£ ‹É∞ ∫ü¡ä™¡A¯∂. ∫ÇAÚÒ£˘ M˘£ ﬁ∂Ó£°: "‡ÙË ´ÍIäπ IËIÓIÖCÚ G¨ÙÇ∞" ıNı∞àÓ ∫Óh¥ ﬁôÙ£àÓ°¨ÒÇ∞ Ë£ÛÌã ‚°˘? 1930ËOô ﬁºâÓ∂ ´£Ù´ı, ﬁÙ£MAÓàF° eÓ£˘ Wõ´Ô£ÇAÚ ‹øàÓã ﬁºâÓF° ™ıOä£¥Ó£° ﬁâÓ GËõæä´£ÇË£∞ã. ﬁÙ£MAÓ iõÑCä´£Ç∞ ‚°∂ ﬁÙ£ÉËú ÃxÚàFü∞ ıâÓ£ôÓ£° Âº ™ÔºÇËÆ ıºã ‚°¯ ™£º¨˜ ™Ë£¥ÇË£∂ --Ò£òÇCÍ ∞ä£åæ, M˜ÇËã ™Ë£¥ÇËMô¨Ù ‚°¡ ıLª¡à∂ıòËú ﬁâÓ ‡á¨Ò¨Ú Ò¯â∂M¥A°¯˘ò; ﬁÙ£MAÓ iõÑC ‚°∂ A¨ÏÇ∞ã ﬁÙ£MAÓã ∞¨¯ı£Ë ﬁºâÓ£Ωã ∫ÓhÜÆü∞ ı£åäπÇËú ﬁ°¬ã ‡ú˜˘ ‚°¯ ™£º¨˜ ™Ë£á¥ú˜∂.

™Ò£àÓ ﬁÙ£ MAÓã ÃxÚà¨Ó ‹¨ÏıÓü∞ ∫°˘´Û, √¥ÓÙ£˘ ∫ÓhÜÆô ﬁºâ∂ A¨ÏÇ∞ã ﬁÙ£ÉËú IËÇ ∞¨¯ı£˘¨ı ‚°¡ ‡ú˜´£´Ó, ™ÔºÇËÆ ´Ó£°¯Ç√¥ã. ‹Ó£ı∂ ﬁÙ£ ÍÛ£ÍK MAÓã IËæã ‹FËÒ£ËÇ √Ï ﬁºÇËÙ£ã, ›˘£ô √¥ÓÙ£˘ ∫ÓhÜÆô ﬁºâ∂ A¨ÏÇ∞ã ﬁÙ£MAÓã ∞¨¯ı£Ë ﬁºâÓ£ô Âº ™ÔºÇËÆ ı˜ºã; „™˘Qô ‹ä™£ø∂ ﬁÙ£MAÓä ´£Ç∞ iõÑCÚ¨Ïªã Ó°¨Ò¨Ú ™ıOä¥à∂ã. ‹àÓ¨ËÚ G¨ÙJô, ÕÓh¥ ‚°∂ ∞¨¯ÇËä¥ã. ∫ÓhÜÏ£˜òËú πFÚ ∫ÚüCËOô ﬂ¥ÏÒ£ÜÏ£òËú. ‡á¨ÒJô, ÔôÙ Ë£Ùã ıºã ı¨Û ‹ıòËú ÓÉËú Ìà¨Ó ÓÉËOÏ´Ò ÓÇË ¨ıà∂Ç ™Ë£á¥ „¨˘Ú GFÚÑ Íâ¨ÓËú ‹ôÙ∂ ·Ë ıEËÉËOô „´Ó¬ã Íâ¨Ó A¨ÏÇ∞Ò£ ‚°¡ £òäò.

‹àÓ¨ËÚ ∫ÆæËú ™Ó£¨ÙÓ…Û M¨˜æË¨˜ ‹OÇ∞ã; „™˘Qô ∫Óh¥ ‚°∂ ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ∫¨¯ ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàFô ¨ÒÚä É¨Ë ™Ë£á¥ú˜∂. ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ∫¨¯ eÓ£˘ ›ÛãË£Ù ∞¨¯√¡´ı£ò ≤ÜÆÇË£ÜÆªú˜Æ --‹ıòË¿¨ÏÚ ∞ä£åæ ∞¨¯ı£Ë ∏ËÛ´ıá¥ã ‚°¡ √¡ıòË˜£Ωã ‹ä™£øFô ﬁºâ∂ ‚F™Û£LÇËä¥A¯∂-- ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ﬁÙ£ ∫¨¯J° ﬁºäH° ‹òàÓ´Ò ™Ó£NÙ£˜òË¿¨ÏÚ ·FÚà¨Ó ´£FÚ˜æ ‹¨ÏÚ∫ÆÚ£∂ú˜∂. ‹Ó£ı∂ ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ‡üàF ∫¨¯Jô ™£ºÜË˜£Ë ‡ºı£∞¨ı ÌÒ£Ë Ò£ü¯∫ÆÚMô¨Ù ‚°Ó£∞ã.

‹äÆÚ£˘£ô, ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã ‚äÆ ™ÍÚô¥A¯∂? ™Ó£NÙ£˜òËO° ∏Ëòæ ‚°∂ ÍÇFIÇË ´Ó¨ıÇ∞ Â´Û ›Ó£Ûã ‹ôÙ. ÕÙÓ˘ä ™£ºÜË¿ÇË£˘ ´Ó¨ı, ‹Óü∞ú´˜´Ú ÕÙÓ˘ä ™£ºÜË¿ÇË£˘ ´Ó¨ı ‚°¨ı ıºÉË£Ù ´Ó¨ı¨Ú ‚Fò™Ë£ú˜ ´ıá¥ã (‹Ó£ı∂ ∫Óh¥ ﬁºÇË´ıá¥ã), ‡üàF¨Ú ‹´Ó ÓÛàFô ÓÇË ¨ıà∂Ç™Ë£úı∂ ÒÜ¥IôÙ£Òô ‡üàF¨Ú ™ºÇËæã ´ıá¥ã ‚°Fô ∫ÇAÚ É∞ ıAÇA°¯∂. ∫Óh¥ ∞PäHÜÏ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ı˜òÑCJ° ÓÛà¨Ó MÏ IË ‹FËÒ£Ë Ó£áÆÑ ™Í°¡ ıºÉË£Ù Íâ¨ÓË¨˜ ´Ó£ü¡MÇA¯∂. ﬁâÓ ıNı¨Ë G¡àÓäÜÏ£ô, ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ™£º˜£Ó£Û ∫¨¯ "Âº Wõ´Ô£Ç∞ ÍK¨ı" ‹¬MÇ∞ã.

ü¯£Ç∞¨¯ª¨ÏÚ ∫ÓhÜÆü∞ FÙ£Ë Òü™¯£º ÍÇFı£åâÓ ´Ó¨ı Ëá¥HÆÇËäÜÏ£ô, ‹àÓ¨ËÚ ™ÔºÇËÆ ´Ó£°¡ı∂ Ó¥ÇËäÏ ∫Æªã. ›˘£ô ‹àÓ¨ËÚ ÔÏıÆÇ¨ËËú Ó£ÉË´˜ ™ÔºÇËÆ¨Ú bòÇË ∫ÆÚ£∂; „™˘Qô ‹Ó° ™Ó£ÏÇËÉËú ÍÇFı£åâÓ ´Ó¨ı ﬁôÙ£ÓFô ÒÜ¥ã ﬁô¨Ù; ÕÙÓ˘à FÛÜÆô Âäπ¨ÒJô ‡K ÒFäπ ∞¨¯ı£Ë ﬁºâÓ£Ωã ıºã; ﬁàÓ¨ËÚ ü¯£Ç∞¨¯Ó£° ﬁÙ£MAÓàF°e∂ Wõ´Ô£ÇAÚ ÍKMüË£˘ ‹øàÓÒ£Ë ™ıOä¥A¯∂. ‹Æä¨Ïä HÛÑC¨˘¨Ú ‹¨ı bòÇË∫ÆÚ£∂ ‚°Ó£ô, ·Ç∞MÇ∞ã ÔÏıÆÇ¨ËËú ÓMòÇË ∫ÆÚ£Òô πFÚ ∫Ûá£¥Ë¿Ç∞ã HÛÑC¨˘Ë¿Ç∞ã ıNı∞Ç∞ã.

Óü´£¨ÓÚ G¨Ù¨ÒJô, ‹™ÒKÇË ‹FË£KË˜£ô ‚¥ÇËä¥ã GFÚ ÔÏıÆÇ¨ËËú ‹™ÒKÇË£¨ıªã ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã ∫øı¨Óªã ÒâÓ G¨ÙJô Óú˜£Òô ¨ıàFºâÓ£Ωã, ‹Ó£ı∂ Ì cò¨Ò (liquidity) Òü¡ã ∞¨¯âÓ ıÜÆMAÓ ‹¨Òä¨ ÓÇË ¨ıà∂ ™Ë£áÏ£Ωã, ‹¨ı ‡¡FÚü¯ Ó°¨ÒÇ∞ ›õâÓ ›Ó£ÛÉË¨˜ªã „ü¥àFªú˜˘. IËä ÛâÓ ‹˜Mô Ì cò¨Ò ﬁºä∂ã ‡ÙË GFÚ ∫¨¯J° ™ıOä£¥ã ‚âÓ Âü¨¯ ‹FË£Ûà∂¨ÏÚ ËÜ¥ä£ÜÆü∞ã ‹ä£ôÓ£° ﬁºÇ∞ã; ´ÒΩã ﬁ°¬ã √¥ÓÙ£˘ ∫¨¯Jô ıºı£å ´ÓÏô, ‹Ó£ı∂ ﬁÙ£àFüË£˘ ÕòÇËÒ£˘ ´ÓÏô ´ıá¥ã ‚°¯ Ëºà∂ ﬁºÇ∞ã´£∂, GFÚ ™ÔºÇËÆÇË£˘ G¨Ù¨ÒËú ´Ó£ü¡MÇËäÜ¥ M¥ã; ﬁ¨ÓàÓ£° ‹á¨ÒJô Ù ÒàFÚ ıÉAÚ£˜òË¿ã, GFÚ ‹FË£KË¿ã ™ÓKMà∂ú˜˘ò.

ËÏâÓ ™ÍäÏãKô GËõàFÚ ‡¨Û Â°Pô, Bank for International Settlements ﬁ° ™£∂ ´ÒÙ£˜Û£˘ Malcolm Knight ËÏâÓ 30 ›á¥ËOô ‡ÙË GFÚã "∫°´˘£ÆJôÙ£Ó ´ıËàFô" IËä ™KÚ ‹˜Mô MKı¨Ïâ∂ú˜∂ ‚°¨Ó ≤ÜÆÇË£ÜÆªú˜£ò. 1973ã ›á¥ YÛ£˘ Ò£ü¡MAÓÉËú ∫ü¡ä ™ü¯¨Ó ‹¥à∂, ‹öıä™£ø∂ã, ıºÉË£Ù Ò£ü¡Ñ Íâ¨ÓË¿ã ı˜òâ∂MÜÏ˘; ﬁÓ°H°˘ò ‹ÛÍ£ÉË àFÛÉË¿ÇË£˘ Íâ¨ÓËOô MKæ „üÜÏ∂; ‹Ó° H°˘ò ›à∂ÇË¨˜ ∞¨¯Ç∞ã ı¨ËJô £∂Ë£ä£˘ ı¨ËJô πFÚ Íâ¨ÓËú ∫ÓhÜÏ£˜òË¿ÇË£Ë ´Ó£°P˘. ﬁÓ° M¨˜æ, "ÓQäÜÏ Ô£¥ËOô ﬁºâ∂ ıºã GFÚ ‹FòÑCË¨˜ Ó£ÉA ™Ë£ú˜Ç √ÆÚ ‹˜Mü∞ ıL¨Ò ﬁºäÓ£Ë Ë£ÜÆÇ ™Ë£áÆºÇ∞ã ‡ÙË GFÚ ∫¨¯Ú£∞ã."

"ﬁ°¡ ‡ú˜ ‡ÙË GFÚ ∫¨¯ 20 ›á¥Ë¿Ç∞ ∫°π, 10 ›á¥Ë¿Ç∞ ∫°πã √Ï ﬁºâÓ¨ÓMÏ, IËà F¯¨ÒÚ£Ë ﬁºâ∂ CPÚ, ÊÛ˜æ ™KÚ ‹FòÑCÇË¿Ç∞ ﬂ¥™Ë£¥Ç∞ã Ó°¨ÒJô ‡ú˜∂. GFÚ ∫¨¯¨Ú YÛ£Ë ¨ıà∂Ç ™Ë£ú¿ıÓü∞ ´ÔÛÆ, Íâ¨Ó ∫¨¯Úü¯ Ó¨Ùf¥Ëú ÒàFÚ ıÉAËú Òü¡ã ËÜ¥ä£Ü¥ ‹FË£KËOÏã ﬁºâ∂ ∫°π ´Ó¨ıäÜÏ∂ ´£ô, ﬁä™£ø∂ ´Ó¨ıäÏMô¨Ù. ›˘£ô ﬁ°¨¯Ú CÇËô ı£åâÓ, Íâ¨Ó ›FÇËã G¨¯âÓ GFÚ ∫¨¯ ﬁ°¬ã √¥ÓÙ£˘ ı¨ËJô ËÏâÓ Ë£ÙàFô ﬁºâÓ¨ÓMÏ Íâ¨ÓJô É∞™¡´ı£ò "ﬁÙ£à¨Ó ‹¨ÏÚ´ıá¥ã", √¥ÓÙ£˘ ∫¨¯Jô ™ÍÚü£¥Ë¨˜ ™Ë£ú˜ ı¨Ë ´ıá¥ã, ∫°π ﬁºâÓ FØ™Û˘ ‡Úòæ, FØ™Û˘ ÍKæ ´£°¯ ‡¡FÚü¯ Ó°¨ÒËú √Ï£Ó ı¨ËJô ﬁºÇË ´ıá¥ã ‚°ÓüË£Ë ·Ç∞MäπÇË¨˜ ™Ë£á¥ú˜∂. ≤ºÉËÇ √P° Ôã∫¨ÏÚ GFÚ ∫¨¯ πFÚ √Ü¥ÇË˜£˘ 'Ë¨ÏG¨Ù ›à∂ÇËú', ‡á¨ÒÚ£˘ ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàFü∞ã ›ÓÛæ ™Ë£¥ÇËÇ √¨ÏÚ¨ı ‚°¨Óªã ‚Fò™Ë£ú˜ ´ıáÆÚ G¨ÙJô ‡ú˜∂."(Speech by Malcolm D. Knight at the International Monetary Fund, Washington, September 6, 2005).

IMF ﬁ° Ó¨Ù¨Ò ™£º˜£Ó£Û ıôΩ˘ò Raghuram Rajan ﬁ´Ó´£°¯ ÒFädÜ¨ÏàÓ£° ËÏâÓ ›ËvÜÆô ™ıOJÜÏ ‹PÇ¨ËJô √Pªú˜£ò:

"›à∂ÇËú ﬁ°¬ã ÛâÓ ∫¨¯Jô HKà∂ ‚Fò´Ô£Ç∞ã ı¨ËJô ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàF° ›à¨Ó Ó£É∞ã F¯¨˘ ﬁä™£ø∂ú˜ ∫¨¯ Ú°¥à∂A¯∂ ‚°¯£Ωã, ∫°¨˘Ç Ë£ÜÆΩã √¥ÓÙ£˘ ›à∂ÇË¨˜ªã ‹∂ „üËàÓÚ£Û£Ë ﬁºÇA¯∂. ´ÒΩã Íâ¨ÓË¿Ç∞ ﬁ¨Ï´Ú ‡ú˜ ™Ó£ÏòπËú, Íâ¨ÓË¿Ç∞ã G¡ı˘ÉË¿Ç∞ã ﬁ¨Ï´Ú ‡ú˜ ™Ó£ÏòπËú ›AÚ¨ıªã ﬁä™£ø∂ ™ÓOı£Ëà ™ÓKA°¯˘. ﬁ∂ ∫¨¯Jô C¡ ‹FòÑCÇË¨˜ ı¨Ëä¥àF ™ÍÚô¥à∂ıF° ÕÙã ÍÒ£OÇË ‡ÓæA¯∂; ∫¨¯´Ú ™KÚ ‹FòæË¿Ç∞ã ‡Ü¥à∂A¯∂; ™KÚ Ò£ü¯ÉËú ™Í£à∂ÇËO° M¨ÙËOô „üÏÙ£ã, ™Ò£àÓ cò¨ÒJô Ò£ü¯ÉËú ıÛÙ£ã ‚°¡ ›Aªú˜∂ ... ≤ºÉËÇ √P°, GFÚ ∫¨¯ ™ºã£Ù£˘ ´ÔÛàFô ‡¡FÚ£Ë ﬁºÇ∞ã ‚°¯ ™£∂Ç Ëºà¨ÓÇ √¡ı∂ ÍKÚ£Ë ﬁºâÓ£Ωã, IË ´Ò£ÍÒ£˘ Ë£ÙàFô IËÇ √¥ÓÙ£˘ ‡¡FÚü¯ Ó°¨ÒÇË£˘ ı£åäπã ‡á¥ ‚°¨ÓÇ √P´Ú bÛ´ıá¥ã (‹àÓ¨ËÚ GËõæËú √¥ÓÙ£Ë ıÛÇ√ÆÚ˘ ‚°∂ã ‡á¨Ò´Ú). ∂ÛFºwÏıÍÒ£Ë ﬁã∫¨¯ ´Í£Ó¨˘Ç∞ÜÜÏ£ô ÂNÚ ‚âÓ ‹˜Mü∞ bMÛÇ Ëı¨ÙËú ıºã ‚°¨Ó ‹PıÓüË£˘ ı£åäπ ﬁô¨Ù. ﬁ°¬ã ‹FËKàÓ˜MÙ£˘ ‹FòÑCË¨˜ ‚Fò™Ë£áÏ£ôÓ£°, Âö™ı£º ∫¨¯ªã ‚∂ ﬁôÙ£ÓÓ£ô ‹äÆ „üÜÏ∂ ‚°¨Ó ‹Pâ∂™Ë£áÏ£ôÓ£°, √¥ÓÙ£˘ ı¨ËJô ‚Fòà∂ GüËà ÓÚ£ò ™Íå∂ ™Ë£ú˜ ∫Æªã... ﬁFô ›à∂ ‚°˘ ‚°¯£ô, ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã ‹Fò¨ı Ó£ÉA ™Ë£ú˜Ç √ÆÚ ´Í£Ó¨˘¨Ú ÍâFÇ∞ ∫° Âº ™ºãπÚ¨Ù ‚Fò™Ë£ú¿ã."

‹àÓ¨ËÚ GËõMüË£˘ ≈õG¨Ù ‚äÆ ﬁºÇ∞ã?

"™£º˜£Ó£Ûã IËÇ ∞¨¯ı£˘ ›à¨Ó ÓMòÇ∞ã Ë£Ù ËÜÏà¨Ó ‹¬MàÓô ‚°∂ ÂºMÓ ≈õG¨ÙÚ£∞ã (‡Ó£ÛÌÒ£Ë, IËÇ ∞¨¯âÓ ıÜÆMAÓã cáÏË£ÙÒ£Ë ﬁºä∂); ﬁâG¨ÙJô ™Í£à∂ÇËO° M¨ÙËú Óı¯£˘ H¨ÌäHô CÇ∞ã; πFÚ H¨Ìäπ „ü¥àÓÓüË£˘ F¯¨˘ ´Ó£ü¡MÇ∞ã; ‹Fô „ü¥ã H¨ˆÚ£˘ M¨˜æËú ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã ∫øı∂ã ‹Fò¨ı „ü¥à∂ã."

≤ºÉË √P°, Óü™£ø∂ ‡ú˜ G¨Ù¨ÒÇ∞ Âä£˘Ó£ËàÓ£° ﬁºÇ∞ã.

ﬁâÓ ÒFädÜ¨Ï ∫ÆÇ∞ã ı¨ËJô, Bank of England ﬁ° GFÚ ‡¡Fä£Ü¥ HKM° ∂¨Ì Ëıò˘ò ´Íò ›áÜœ Ù£òT° Ëºà∂ÇË¨˜ ´Òü´Ë£OÏ MºãπA´¯°. Óü´£¨ÓÚ GFÚ ∫¨¯Jô "CÙ ‹FË Ô°¨ÒÚü¯ √¡£¥Ëú" ‚°¡ ‹ıò ‹¨ˆà∂ú˜ Ëºà∂ÇË¨˜ ≤ÜÆÇË£ÜÆªú˜£ò: ﬁıüPô ™Í£à∂ÇËú, ÂäâÓÉËú ﬁıüP° ‡á¨ÒÚ£˘ ÒFä¨ ‹PMäFô ‡ú˜ ﬁÏòä£¥Ëú ‹ÏÉ∞ã; GFÚ ∫°Ò£FKËú e∂ ™Ë£á¥ú˜ ÔãHÇ¨Ë Ù ™£º˜£Ó£Û ≈õG¨ÙË¨˜ ÂÜÆ ´Í£Ó¨˘Ç∞ ‡Ü¥àÓäÏMô¨Ù; Íâ¨ÓJô πFÓ£Ë É∞ ™¡´ı£ò ÔÏâ∂™Ë£ú¿ã ∫¨¯ üPªã ‡¡FÚ£Ë √¯∫ÆÚMô¨Ù; "´ÒΩã ËEÍÒ£˘ ∫ÓhÜÏ£˜òËú Â´Û ´ÔÛàFô ÓÉËú ∫ÓhÜ¨Ï Fºãä ™¯´ıá¥ã ‚°¡ ∫Æ™ı¥à∂MÜÏ£ô ‚âÓ ‹˜Mü∞ Íâ¨ÓËú ™ÍÚô¥ã ‚°¨Ó GòÌJäFô ﬁÏò£¥Ëú ‡ú˜˘. ...HÛÑC¨˘ ﬁ∂Ó£°: ﬁàÓ¨ËÚ £FäπÇËú ı˜òâ∂ ™Ë£áÆºÇA°¯˘ı£, Âº Ô£ú ‹¨ı ‡¡FÚ¨Ïâ∂ IËä™KÚ ‹FòÑCÚ£Ë ™ıOäÜ¥ Íâ¨ÓJ˘£ô ‡úı£ÉË ∫ÆÚ£Ó Ó°¨Ò¨Ú ™ü¡M¥Ò£? ‡á¨ÒJô ÔãIÏã ﬁÓü∞ M¨ÏJô¨Ù."

CÙ ›á¥Ë¿Ç∞ ∫°π √Ï ﬁºâFÛ£Ó IË Ôi˘Ò£˘ GFÚÇ ËºMËO° ı˜òÑC, IËæã ‹Í£Ó£ÛÌÒ£˘∂ ›∞ã. ﬁˆäπ £∂Ë£äπ GFÚÉËú ﬁä™£ø∂ ÓãI¨Ï´Ú ∞¨¯âÓ∂ 1 ÆKôLÚ° Ï£ÙòË¨˜ ™Ë£á¥ú˜˘; ﬁâÓ ™Ó£¨Ëªã 1998ô ﬁºâ∂ ﬁºÒÏÉË£Aªú˜∂. 2006ô πFÓ£Ë A¨ÏÇ∞ã Íâ¨Ó AÜÏàÓÜÏ 500 ÆKôLÚ° Ï£ÙòËú ı˜òÑC¨Ú Ë£µã ‚°¡, ‹Ó£ı∂ ‡ÙA° ™Ò£àÓ ‡úÔ£Ü¥ ‡üàFÚ£˘ 45 ÆKôLÚ° Ï£ÙòË¨˜ Ë£ÜÆΩã 10 ÒÏÉ∞ ‹FËÒ£Ë ﬁºÇ∞ã ‚°¡ ÒFäHÏäÜ¥ú˜∂.

ÍeàFÚ Ë£ÙàF° Òü™¯£º ∫ÇAÚ GËõæ ÓÉËàF° M¨ÙJô „üÜ¥ú˜ ‹FËKäπ ›∞ã; ﬁ∂ 25 ›á¥Ëú ﬁôÙ£Ó ‹˜Mü∞ ‹æ°v Â°Pü∞ 560 Ï£ÙòËú ‚°¯ M¨ÙJô ‡ú˜∂. ﬁäÆ ÓÉËà∂Ï˘£˘ Ò£ü¯ã ‚°∂ ‹¨˘à∂ ™KÚ Ô£ÌÚÉËOΩã ÔãHÇ¨ËJ°¨Ò ™ºAªú˜∂ ‚°¨Óä HÛFLÇA¯∂. ‹™ÒKÇË Ï£ÙºÇ∞ ÓÉËä £∂Ë£äπ ﬁºâÓ¨Ó 1971ô GÇÍ° Gòı£Ëã, H™ÛÜÏ° ◊Üv ∫¨¯Ç∞ ∫ü¡äπúO ¨ıàÓ´£∂, Ï£Ùò Íòı´ÓÍ ‹˜Mô „üËäÜÏ Ô£ÌÚÒ£A ´£Jü¡. ›˘£ô ‹Ó° H°˘ò 35 ›á¥Ë˜£Ë ‹∂ Íòı´Ó Ô£ÌÚ ∫¨¯Jô ‡¡FÚ£˘ ‹ÆàÓ˜à¨Ó ıˆÉË ∫ÆÚMô¨Ù.

ÌiÇËã ´ÓÇËã (Stagflation) ﬁÛá¥ã ËÙâÓ Ë£ÙËÜÏã 1970ËOô ﬁºâÓ´£∂ Ï£Ùò ıÛÙ£¡ Ë£Ì£Ó ı¨ËJô ∞¨¯âÓ ÒFä¨ ™Ë£áÏÓ£˘∂, 1979ô ´ı£ôÇËò ‹FòÑCÇ∞ ﬁÜ¥Ñ™Í°¯∂Ï° ‹™ÒKÇË ıÜÆMAÓÉËú IË √ÆÚ˜Mü∞ ‡ÚòàÓäÜÏ˘. ﬁÓ° M¨˜ı£Ë 1930Ë¿Ç∞ Hâ¨ÓÚ Ë£ÙàFô ›õâÓ ÒâÓ G¨Ù ‚üÜÏ∂Ï° ı˜òÑC ∞¨¯ı£˘ Ô£¥Ëú ‚°¡ ‹¨ˆÇËäÜÏıüPô ™ºã GFÚ ™ÔºÇËÆªã „üÜÏ∂. ‹™ÒKÇË Ï£ÙK° ÒFäHô „üÜÏ ‹FËKäπ ıEËä H˜¨ı ‹FËä¥àFÚ∂; ‹™ÒKÇË „ü¡ÒFËú ‡ÙËÑ Íâ¨ÓJ° ËÌÇAô M¨ÙÚOÇËäÜÏ˘. 1985ã ›á¥ ﬁ¨Ó™Ú£ÜÆ Plaza ÂäâÓã „üÜÏ∂; ﬁÓ°Æ ÒàFÚ ıÉAËú Ï£ÙK° ÒFä¨Ç ∞¨¯äÓü∞ ÂäπÇ ™Ë£áÏ˘. ›˘£ô ‹âÓ ∫Ææ ™ºã ™Ó£¨Ù´Ô£Ç∞¨ÏÚ M¨˜æË¨˜ „ü¥àFÚ∂: ™Ú°¬¨ÏÚ ÒFäπ ™ºAÚ∂ã ‹ıüPô Â°¡Ó£°; ‹´Ó´£ô ¸ä£Qô ™Í£à∂ÇËú Òü¡ã É∞Ñ Íâ¨ÓJô „üÜÏ ™Íø¨Ò ›AÚ¨ıªã ‹Ó° M¨˜æËOô Â°¡Ó£°; ﬁ¡FJô ﬁ∂ 1989 ô ÍKı¨Ïâ∂ à∂ ›á¥Ë¿Ç∞ã ´ÒÙ£Ë ÌÒâÓ G¨ÙÇ∞ ıN F¯â∂MÜÏ∂.

Ï£ÙK° ÍKæ M¨Ûı£Ë ﬁºâÓ Ó°¨ÒJô 1987‰ ÂÜÆ ‹Ó° ÒFäπ ‡¡F™ÍåÚäÏ ´ıá¥ã ‚°¯ ‡Ï°£¥ „üÜÏ∂; ﬁ∂Ó£° Louvre ‡Ï°£ÜÆü∞ ıNı∞àÓ∂. ›˘£ô ‹™ÒKÇË£Mü∞ã ´¸òÒQÇ∞ã ﬁ¨Ï´Ú ıÜÆMAÓÉËú üPÚ Ëºà∂ ™ı¡£¥Ëú GFÚÑ Íà¨ÓËOô ™ºã ™Ë£âÓOä¨ „ü¥àF, 1987 ‹Ç´Ï£ò É∞Ñ Íâ¨Ó ™£P¨ıªã ËáÏ˘.

πFÓ£Ë G¡ıäÜÏ √ÜÏ£ÜC KÍòö ∞øM° Ó¨ÙıÛ£˘ ›Ù° Çg°v£° ﬁâÓÑ ÍK¨ı ‚Fò™Ë£áÏ MÓã ‹¥àÓ 18 ›á¥ËOΩã IËæã ˆÇËàFü∞KÚÓ£AMÜÏ∂. GFÚ ‡ÓMË¨˜ F¯â∂MÜÏ∂Ï°, ËwÏàFô ﬁºÇ∞ã GFÚ ‹¨ÒäπÇË¿Ç∞ ËÏ° ‡àÓÛı£ÓÉË¨˜ªã ‹OàÓ£ò. É∞Ñ Íâ¨Ó ÍKæ ﬁöMÓàFô ÓMòÇËäÜÏ∂; ‹Ó£ı∂ GFÚ G¡ı˘ÉËO° ™ºã Ó¨ÙfÜÆ˘£ô ÓMòÇËäÜÏ∂; ›˘£ô Ô£ÌÚà¨Ó ™£¡àÓ ≈¯£ıO ™Ó£ÏòâFºâÓ∂. 1990ËOô HKÜÏQ° ™˜á¥ã, vË£áÆ´ÔMÚ ıÉA ∫¨¯ªã ™ÔºÇËÆ¨Ú ÍâFàÓ˘. ﬁÓ°H°˘ò 1994ô ™ÒÇCË° ™ÔºÇËÆ „üÜÏ∂; ﬁFô AO°Ï° Gòı£Ëã Ó¨ÙJÜ¥ ‹™ÒKÇË ıÉAË¨˜ªã, GFÚ ‹¨ÒäπÇË¨˜ªã Ë£ä£üPÚ∂.

1996 ﬁ° ﬁ¡FJô, ‹™ÒKÇË£Mô É∞Ñ Íâ¨ÓÇ ∞Iõ Â°¡ ı˜òâ∂ ™Ë£áÆºÇA¯∂ ‚°∂ ™ıOä¨ÏÚ£Jü¡. ﬁâÓ ‡á¨Ò √ÜÏ£ÜC K´Íòö ∞øÇ √ÜÏàFô Çg°v£˘£ô ÂäπÇ ™Ë£ú˜äÜÏ∂. ﬁàÓ¨ËÚ "∞àÓPıü¯ ËOäπ" ‚°¯ ‹PÇ¨Ë ™ıOıâÓ¨Ó ÓMÛ ´ı¡ ‚âÓ ÔÏıÆÇ¨Ëªã ´Òü™Ë£ú˜äÏMô¨Ù. 1997ô Ë§g°v£° ™Ó£ÏÇAÚ ıÜÆMAÓ „ü¯ã Â°Pü¡ Wall Street ™Ë£¥àÓ ›õâÓ ‚FòäH˘£ô √ÜÏÛ≤ ﬁºäπÇ ∞øM° Ó¨Ùıò É∞ M¨ÙËú ‡Úòı¨Ó Ó¥ÇË ‚âÓ ÔÏıÆÇ¨Ëªã ‚¥ÇËäÏÇ√Ï£∂ ‚°¯ ∫ÆMü∞ ıâ∂MÜÏ£ò. ‚äÆä£òàÓ£Ωã, ›CÚ ™ÔºÇËÆJ° ™ıÆäπ cò¨Ò (liquidity) ≤ÙÒ£ıÓüË£˘ ‹¨ÏÚ£˜à¨Ó Ë£ÜÆÚ∂.

É∞Ñ Íâ¨Ó ∞Iõ ﬁ¡FÚ£Ë 2001 ™Ó£ÏÇËàFô ™ıÆàÓ´£∂, Ë§g°v£° ‹¨Ó ‚Fò™Ë£áÏMÓã ıÜÆMAÓÉË¨˜ ∞¨¯àÓÓ£ËàÓ£° ﬁºâÓ∂. ﬁÓ° M¨˜æ i¥Ëú ËÜ¥ã Íâ¨ÓJô Âº ∞I¨ˆ ´Ó£ü¡MàÓÓ£Ë ´£Jü¡; „™˘Qô ıÜÆ MAÓÉËú ∫°´˘£ÆJôÙ£Ó ‹˜Mü∞ W´ˆ ÍKâ∂MÜÏ˘. ÍeàFÚ Ë£ÙàFô ÒàFÚ KÍòö ∞ø MAÓÉË¨˜ ‡ÚòàFªú˜∂; ﬁÓü∞Ç Ë£ÛÌã ‹öı£¡ ™ÍåÚMÜÏ£ô ‹¥àÓ GFÚ ™ÔºÇËÆ „ü¥ã´£∂ ‹¨Ó ‚Fò™Ë£ú˜ ËºM „∂ã ‹ÓQÏã ﬁºÇË£∂ ‚°Ó£∞ã.

∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıàF° ∫Ûá£¥Ëú

Âº GFÚ ™ÔºÇËÆ ı˜òÑCª¡ã´£∂, Ag°v£°Ó£° Ë£ÛÌã ‚°¡ Ùºã ∞¨¯√¡ıò... GFÚÇ ∞I¨ˆ ∫¨˜J´Ù´Ú AúO ‚Pªã ı¨ËJô ÒàFÚ KÍòö ∞ø ÔÏâFºÇË ´ıá¥ã ‚°™¯ôÙ£ã √¡ıò: 1929ã ›á¥ Wall Street ÍKæÇ∞ã Òü¡ã ‹¨Óà ™Ó£ÏòâÓ ™ºÒâÓ G¨ÙÇ∞ã √ÜÏ£ÜC ™Ë£ú¨ËËú ‚öı£¡ ∞¨¯√¯äÜÏ˘´ı£, ‹´Ó´£ôÓ£° ﬁ∂æã.

ÓQÔòËO˘∂ã Òü¡ã ‹ıòË¿¨ÏÚ ∫ÆæËO˘∂ã ∫ÇAÚà∂ıà¨Ó Ò¡ä∂ Óı¯£A M¥ã ‚°¯£Ωã, GFÚ Òü¡ã ËÏ°∫¨¯Jô MKı£ÇËã, ‹∂ ‹P∫Ëä¥à∂ã ‡¡FÚü¯ Ó°¨Ò ‚°∂ Çg°v£¬¨ÏÚ ∫ÆæËO˘£ôÓ£° ‚°¡ √¯∫ÆÚ£∂. ‹ıº¨ÏÚ ™Ë£ú¨ËËú, ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàFü∞ú´˜´Ú ﬁºÇ∞ã π¯G¨ÙÚ£˘ ∫Ûá£¥ËO° ı˜òÑCÇ∞ FÙOäÓ£ËàÓ£° ﬁºâÓ˘.

ﬁàÓ¨ËÚ ıNı¨ËË¨˜ Ô£ã ‚äÆ ÒFäd¥ ™Íåı∂?

1970 ËOô ›Ûã ›á¥ËOô, ‡ÙË ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı∫¨¯Jô ´£ºÇ∞ä H° ﬁºâÓ ÍÒG¨Ù ∫Pâ∂MÜÏ∂. ﬁÓü∞ ‹¥àÓ Õ°¡ ÓÍ£äÓÉË¿ã ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàFô IËä ÛâÓ Ò£¡ÓôË¨˜ ËáÏ˘. ﬁä™£ø∂ Ôã¨Ò ‚Fò™Ë£ú¿ã M˘£ ﬁ∂Ó£°: Ô£ã Âº πFÚ ÍÒG¨Ù¨Ú ´Ô£ÇAÑ ™Í°¡ ™Ë£áÆºÇA´¯£Ò£, ‹ôÙ∂ ËÏâÓ Õ°¡ ÓÍ£äÓÉËOô ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàFô „üÜÏ ›õâÓ Ò£¡ÓôËú ™£º˜£Ó£Û, ‹ÛCÚô ™ıÆäπËú „ü¥ıÓüË£˘ ≈õG¨Ù¨Ú „ü¥àF, ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ∫¨¯¨Ú ´Í£ÍLÍä πÛÜCJô ı£JÙ£Ë ‹Ëü¡ã ı£åä¨ „ü¥àFªú˜Ó£? ´ı¡MÓÒ£ËÇ √P˘£ô, ´Í£ÍLÍàFü∞ ‡ÙËgFÚ£˘ ı£åäπÇËú Ú£¨ı?

ﬁâÓ ´ËúMÇ∞ M¨Ï √¡ıÓü∞, "ﬁÏ∂" ‚øàÓ£˜òËú Leo Panitch, Sam Gindin ›ô ‚øÓäÜ¥, 2005ã ›á¥ Socialist Register ﬁô ™ıOJÏäÜÏ "GFªã ‹™ÒKÇËä ´ÛÛ≤ã" ‚°¯ Ó¨ÙäHô ıâ∂ú˜ ËÜ¥¨Û¨Ú ›Û£Ú MºãπA°´¯°.

‹ÇËÜ¥¨ÛJ° ∫ÇAÚ Ëºà∂ ËÏâÓ 30 ›á¥Ë˜£Ë Ô¨Ï™ü¡ ıºã GFÚ Ô¨Ï∫¨¯Ëú ‹™ÒKÇË ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıà¨Ó ıΩMˆÇËÑ ™ÍåÚ£Òô, ıΩı¨ÏÚàÓ£° ™Íå∂ú˜˘ ‚°Ó£∞ã. ﬁÛá¥ ›CKÚòË¿¨ÏÚ ËºàF°Æ, 1980 ËO° ™Ó£ÏÇËàFô ´ı£ôÇËò ‹FòÑCªã, ‹¨Óà ™Ó£ÏòâFºâÓ πFÚ-Ó£Û£˜ ™Ë£ú¨Ë ™ÍÚüÜÆÚΩã ‹™ÒKÇË „Ë£FàFÚà¨Ó G¨ÙG¡à∂ıFô ∫ÇAÚ É¨Ë ™Ë£áÆºâÓ˘.

"ﬁ¡FJô Íòı´ÓÍ FÛÜÆô ‡ú˜ ›à∂ÇËú Ï£Ùò e∂ú˜ ÔãHÇ¨Ë¨Ú ™£¡à∂ú˜˘; Ï£ÙK° ™£ºúÍ£ò ‹ÆàÓ˜ã ‹™ÒKÇËä ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã Òü¡ã GFÚ Íâ¨ÓËO° ÓMòÇË∫ÆÚ£Ó ‡JòäπàÓ°¨Ò¨Ú ‹™ÒKÇË ‹ÛÍ£ÉËã ¨ËÚ£¿ã F¯QôÓ£° ‹ÏÉAªú˜∂. ´£ºÇ∞ä Hâ¨ÓÚ ∞Iõ ‹™ÒKÇË£M° ÍÇFJô ÂºMÓ ÔãHÇ¨Ë¨Ú HÛFLàÓ∂; 1980ËOô ›ÛãHÇËäÜÏ ´ÛÛC° eúËÜÏ¨Òä£˘∂, 1960ËOΩã 1970ËOΩã ‹∂ ‡¡FÚü¯ Ó°¨ÒJô ﬁºâÓFô ﬁºâ∂ eÜËäÏ ´ıá¥ã ‚°¡ „üÜÏ∂." ‚°¡ ‹ıòËú ‚ø∂A¯£òËú.

GFÚ MKı£ÇËã ‚°∂, ‡üàF∫¨¯ Íòı´ÓÍÒÚÒ£ÇËäÏô Òü¡ã ‹™ÒKÇËä ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàF° ™Ó£ÏòÑCÚ£˘ Ùã ›AÚ ﬁÛáÆü∞ã ∫ÇAÚÒ£˘∂ ‚˘ ‹ıòËú ıLª¡à∂A°¯˘ò. Ó£Û£˜ÒÚÒ£ÇËäÜÏ GFÚã ‚°∂ ‹™ÒKÇË ‹ÛÍ£ÉËã Ó°¬¨ÏÚ ﬁÙÇ∞Ëú Òü¡ã GFÚ ™ÔºÇËÆËú ´Ó£°¡ã´£∂ ÍÒ£OäÓüË£˘ ıNı¨ËË¨˜ ™Ë£á¥ú˜ ı˜òÑCÚ¨Ïªã ËºMÚ£∞ã. ‹´Ó ´ÔÛàFô, GFÚã Ã´Ë£˜ÒÚÒ£Óô ‚°∂ GFÚã ‹™ÒKÇËÒÚÒ£ÇËäÜ¥ú˜∂ ‚°¯ ™£º¨˜à Óºã; ﬁ∂Ó£° ‹™ÒKÇË ÍÇFJ° Ò¡ ‡Jò ™¡ÓΩÇ∞ã, ‡ÙËÒÚÒ£ÇËΩÇ∞ã ∫ÇAÚÒ£˘Ó£Aªú˜∂.

"„Ë£FàFÚÉË¿Ç∞ ﬁ¨Ï´ÚÚ£˘ ´£ÜÆ ‚°¯ ¨ˆÚ G¨Ùä£¥" ‚°¡ ‹ıòËú ‹¨ˆä¨Ó Panitch, Gindin ﬁºıºã ‡ÓPà Óú¿A°¯˘ò; „™˘Qô ‹™ÒKÇË „Ë£FàFÚàFü∞ú Óü™£ø∂ ﬁ¨Ìâ∂ ™Ë£ú¿ı∂ ‚°∂, Ï£ÙºÇ∞ ™ÔºÇËÆ ‚°∂ ﬁöı¨Òäπ∫¨¯ ∫øıÓü∞´Ò Âº ™ÔºÇËÆ ´£Ù£∞ã ‚°∂Ó£°.

"1970ËO° ™ÔºÇËÆ ﬁ°¡ã Ôã´Ò£¥ ™Ó£ÏòA¯∂ ‚°¯ Ëºà¨Ó ﬁ°¬ã ™Ë£ú¿ı∂ ‚°∂ 1980 ËO° ™Ó£ÏÇËàFô ﬁºâ∂ „üÜ¥ú˜ Ò£ü¯ÉË¿Ç∞ Ò£¯£˘ ËºàÓ£∞ã. ‹¨Òäπ∫¨¯ Ûâ∂ ›õâ∂ ´£¨ËJô, Òü™¯£º ™Ó£Nô∏Ü πÛÜCJ° ›ÓÛ¨ı ‡ú˜ÏÇAÚ ı¨ËJô ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıã ﬁºÇ∞ã´£∂, ‹Ó° ‚Fòäπ ‚°∂ Õ°¡ ÓÍ£äÓÉË¿Ç∞ H°˘ºã ‚âÓ F¯¨ÒÚ£˘ Íı£¨Ùªã MÏ∫ÆÚMô¨Ù ‚°¯£ô ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ™ÔºÇËÆJ° Ó°¨ÒÓ£° ‚°˘? ™ÔºÇËÆ ‚°∂ "‹°¯£Ï Ô¨Ï∫¨¯" ›AMÜÏ£ô, ﬁ∂ ËºàÓ£å¨ı ÒFäHˆÇË ™Íåı∂Ï° Óü´£¨ÓÚ G¨Ù¨ÒËO° πFÚ ∫Ûá£¥Ë¨˜ ‹Pâ∂ ™Ë£ú¿ıÓü∞ Ó¨ÏË¨˜ªã „ü¥àFM¥ã."

ﬁÉ∞ Ù Ëºà∂ÇËú ËıQÇËäÏ ´ıá¥ã. ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ∫¨¯Jô Âº ∞¡AÚ Ë£Ù ™ÔºÇËÆÇ∞ã -1987 É∞Ñ Íâ¨ÓÑ ÍKæ, cáÏ Ë£Ù ÕÙÓ˘ Ô§òı£Ë ™ÔºË¢ËÆ- Óü´£¨ÓÚ ÍË£äÓàFô ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ‡üàF ∫¨¯J° cáÏË£Ù ıÛÙ£ü¡ ™ÍôÓ¨Ë¨ÒÇ∞ã ﬁ¨Ï´Ú ‡ú˜ ´ı¡£Ü¨Ïä MàFÚ£Íä¥àF £òÇË´ıá¥ã. ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ∫¨¯ GÛâÓÛÒ£Ë´ı ∞¡AÚË£Ù ™ÔºÇËÆJô ﬁô¨Ù; Òü¡ã "∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıàF° ™ÔºÇËÆ" ‚°∂ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ı˜òÑC¨Ú M˜Ç∞ıÓü∞ä Ú°¥àÓÇ√Ï£∂.

ﬁöı£¡ √¯äÜ¥MÜÏ£Ωã, ‡ÙË ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàF° ıÛÙ£ü¡ G¨Ù¨Ò üPÚ ÒFädÜ¨ÏÇ ™Ë£úı∂ ´Ó¨ıÚ£A¯∂. Ôã∫¨ÏÚ ﬁÛá¥ ›CKÚòË¿ã ﬁä™£ø∂ ¨ËMÜ¥MÏ ´ıá¥ã ‚˘ ıLª¡à∂ã "1970ËO° ™ÔºÇËÆ" ‚°∂ Ú£∂? ‹∂ ÕÙÓ˘Ç ∞Mäπ ıNı¨ËJôÓ£° ›õâFºâÓ∂ -- ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàF° ‡â∂ ÍÇFÚ£ËàÓ£° ‹∂ ﬁºâÓ∂. 1960ËO° ∫ÆMô ﬁºâ∂ ı˜òÑCªü¯ ﬁÙ£ MAÓàF° iõÑCä ´£Ç∞, ﬁºÇ∞ã ‡üàF∫¨¯Ç∞ú bòÇËäÏ ∫ÆÚMô¨Ù. ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàFü∞ Âº ∫ü´£ÇË£˘ Ò¡YÛ¨Òäπ ´Ó¨ıäÜÏ∂. ﬁ∂Ó£° Ã´Ë£˜ÒÚÒ£ÇËô ıNı¨ËÇ∞ ıN´Ë£LÚ∂; ﬁÙ£ MAÓÉËú e∂ ıºã ‹øàÓà¨Ó ËÏäÓü∞ ÕÙÓ˘ã ∞¨¯◊FÚà ™Ó£NÙ£˜ò ™Ó£∞ä¨ Ú°¥àFÇ ™Ë£ú¿ı∂ ‚°´Ó ‹∂. ﬁÙ£MAÓ iõÑC G¨ÙG¡àÓäÜ¥MÜÏÓ£? Í£°¡Ë¨˜ £òàÓ£ô ﬁô¨Ù ‚°¡Ó£° ´Ó£°¡ã.

Âº ›åM°Æ ´£ºÇ∞ Hâ¨ÓÚ ™Íø¨ÒJô ‹™ÒKÇË ﬁÙ£MAÓã 22 ÍÓMAÓàFô ﬁºâÓ∂; 1967 ∫Óô 1977 ı¨ÛJÙ£˘ Ë£ÙÇËÜÏàFô 10 ÍÓMAÓÒ£Ë ‹∂ ÍK¨ı Ë£áÓü∞ ∫° ‹âÓ MAÓã ﬁºâÓ∂. ‹ä™£øFô ﬁºâ∂ ´ı¨Ù™Ë£¥äıòË˜£Ωã ‹ÛÍ£ÉËàÓ£Ωã ‡á¨Ò ·FÚà¨Ó ‹ÏÇËæã πFÚ ™Ó£Nô∏ÜÉË¨˜ ‹P∫Ëä¥àÓæã IËÇ Ë¥¨ÒÚ£˘ ∫ÚüCËú ´Òü™Ë£ú˜äÜÏ£Ωã, ﬁÙ£MËFã 1990 ËOô Âº ∞¡AÚ Ë£Ùà¨Ó ÓMÛ Òü¯Æ 14 ÍÓMAÓà¨ÓàÓ£° ‚ÜÆÚ∂. (See Fred Moseley, "Marxist Crisis Theory and the Postwar US Economy" in Anti-Capitalism Alfredo Saad-Filho ed. p. 212)

∞PäHÜÏ πúOMıÛÉËú ﬁôÙ£MÆ¬ã, ™Ó£ÏòÑCÚ£˘ ™ºã GFÚÇ ∞INËú ´Ó£°PÚ∂, ‡KÒFäHô ﬁºâ∂ ‚¥ÇËäÏ£Òô ™Íôıã Ë¯â™Ó¥ÇËäÜÏ G¨Ù, ‹Ó£ı∂ ·ËàF˘£Ωã, GFÚ ı¨ËËO˘£Ωã ‹¨ÏÚäÜÏ∂ ‚°∂, ﬁÙ£MAÓÉËú Wõ ´Ô£ÇAÑ ™ÍôΩã ÍKæ ‹øàÓàFô ‡ú˜˘ ‚°¨ÓÑ ≤ÜÆÇË£ÜÆ˘. GFÚ ¨ÓKÚ ™ÍÚü£¥ËO° (Financial ventures) ÕÙã Ìã Íã£FÇËäÏ´ıá¥ã; „™˘Qô ´ı¡‚âÓ ﬁÏàFΩã ™ÍåÚ∫ÆÚ£∂ ‚°¡ ´£Jü¡.

Panitch, Gindin ﬁºıºã "Ô£ÌÚã üPÚ ËºàFô ‡ú˜ πFÚ ∫Ûá£¥Ë¨˜" ‹Pâ∂ ™Ë£ú¿ı∂ ´Ó¨ı ‚°¡ ıLª¡à∂A°¯˘ò. ‹¨ı ‚°˘? „Ë£FàFÚàFü∞ ﬁ¨Ï´ÚÚ£˘ ∫Ûá£¥Ëú ËÏâÓ Ë£ÙàF° ™ÍÚÙ£Ëä ´£åMÜÏ˘, 1970ËOô ™ÔºÇËÆ¨Ú …áÆMÜÏ ﬁÙ£ MAÓ iõÑC Ôã∫Ï° ﬁä™£ø∂ ﬁô¨Ù ‚°¡ ‹ıòËú √¡A°¯˘ò. ‚˘´ı Ô£ã ‹™ÒKÇË „Ë£FàFÚàF° ™ºAıºã ıL¨Ò¨Ú ‡ÌÛ´ıá¥ã ‚°¡ã ‡ÙË ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıàF° π¯G¨Ù ∫Ûá£¥Ë¨˜ M˜ÉAÇ™Ë£áÏ ¨ˆÚ Ëºà∂ÇË¨˜ªã ∫°´˘£Ç∞Ë¨˜ªã …ÇA ‚Pâ∂MÏ ´ıá¥ã ‚°¡ã √¡A°¯˘ò. ‹äÆÚ£˘£ô ´Í£ÍLÍã ﬁô¨Ù ‚°¡ Â∂ÇËäÜ¥MÏ ´ıá¥Ò£? ﬁô¨Ù, ›˘£ô ‹Óü∞ Âº πFÚ ‹vFı£Ûã ‡ú˜∂.

"∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıàFü∞ ‹ä£üÜÏ ‚FòË£Ùã ‚°∂ Í£àFÚÒ£˘∂; ÍÕË cF Òü¡ã ≤ü¡Ñ ≈ˆô ‹Pı£òâÓ Ó°¨Ò ‚°¯ ∫°´˘£ÇAüË£Ë ™ºAÚ ∫¨¯Jô ´Ó¨ıÓ£°; ›˘£ô ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıã ﬁ°¬ã ‡ºı£ÇËäÜ¥Ç ™Ë£á¥ú˜ G¨ÙJôÓ£° ‡ú˜∂." ‹äÆÚ£˘£ô ıòÇË ∫Ûá£¥Ëú ‚°¯ ıÆıà¨Ó ‹¨ı ‚¥àÓ£ô ‹°P ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıàFô ‡ú˜ ∫Ûá£¥Ëú üP Ô£ã ﬁ°¬ã ´ÍÙ£ã, ›˘£ô ‹¨Óä üP ‹FËã Ëı¨ÙäÏÇ√Ï£∂. ™ÔºÇËÆ ‚°∂ ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıà¨Ó Ó£˘£Ë ‡FÛÑ™Íåı¨Ó ´Ô£ÇA ﬁÜ¥Ñ™ÍôΩã ‚°¯ Ëºà∂FLºâ∂ M¨Ï™ü¡Ç™Ë£ú˜ ´ıá¥ã."

"Óü´£¨ÓÚ ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ÍË£äÓÓàFô bMÛÒ£˘ Ò£ü¯àFüË£˘ ›Ûãã [Âº ´Í£ÍLÍä πÛÜCÇË£Ë ‹ôÙ ‚°∂ ∞PäHÏäÏ ´ıá¥ã] ™£∂ı£Ë ‹ÛCÚô ÍÜÏÃòıÓ°¨Ò¨Ú ≤üPªú˜ HÛÑC¨˘Ë˜£Ë ﬁºÇ∞´Ò ÂNÚ FØò ™£º˜£Ó£ÛÑ ÍKæ „üÜÏ£ô ‚°˘ ™Íåı∂ ‚°∂ üP ﬁºÇË£∂."

ﬁÉ∞, ﬁºàF´Ú£Û£ã Àü¯£áÆ° ∫Óô ÓÍ£äÓàFô ﬁºÓ£ã Àü¯£áÆ° ›ÛãàFô ™ıÆà™ÓøâÓ FºàÓôı£Ó ÃÍôËú ‹¨˘à∂ã ‚øää¥A°¯˘. ‚¥ı£òÜ ´ò°v¨Ï¬Ç∞ ´Û£Í£ ΩÇÍã´òÇ Ó°¬¨ÏÚ FLô M˜ÇAÚ∂´£ô, ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıàF° Íòı´ÓÍ ∫Ûá£¥ËO° M¨˜æÓ£° ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıã, ´Í£ÍLÍ Ò£ü¯à¨Ó ‹¨Ïı∂ ‚°∂ã ‹∂ H°˘ò ∫Pı∂ ‚°∂ã ›∞ã ‹ôÙ∂ ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ∫¨¯ ‚°∂ Ó°¬¨ÏÚ ‡ú∫Ûá£¥Ë¨˜ ‹ÏÇ∞ã F¯° ™ü¯∂. "‹äÆÚ£˘£ô ´Í£ÍLÍã ‚°∂ Âº ıÛÙ£ü¡à ´Ó¨ı ‚°¡ ﬁôÙ£Òô ´£åM¥A¯∂. ‹Ó¨˘ H°˘ò ‚äÆ ´ıá¥Ò£˘£Ωã ‹¨ˆªÉËú, ›˘£ô ‹∂ ÍÕËàF° ÍÏà∂ı ı˜òÑCJ° M¨˜æ ‚˘Ç ™Ë£ú˜∫ÆÚ£∂."

πFÚ ËÏ° ı¨Ë Òü¡ã GFÚ∫¨¯ ËÏâÓ Ë£ÙàFô ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ∫¨¯¨Ú ‹FòMü∞Ü¥àFÚ ™ÔºÇËÆËO° ™ıÆä¨ Ó¥à∂MÜÏ∂ ‚°¡ã ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã ıΩı¨Ïâ∂ MÜÏ∂ ‚°¡ã ´ò°v¨Ï° ıLª¡àF˘£ò. ﬁÓü∞ M¨ÏJ¡Ç¨ËJô ËÏ°∫¨¯ ËºMËú ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ∫¨¯J° ı˜òÑCJô ‡ú˜ ∫Ûá£¥Ë¨˜ ËÏâÓ´£FΩã, ‡ÚòâÓ ‹˜Mô ‹ıü¨¯ eá¥ã ™Ë£á¥ıâ∂M¥ã ‚°¡ ΩÇÍã´òÇ √P˘£ò.

‹ıüP° ™£ºàÓã CP∂ã Ò¨¯â∂MÏ£Ó G¨ÙJô ‡ú˜ ™Í£üËOô ΩÇÍã´òÇ, "ËÏ° ∫¨¯ ™ÔºÇËÆ¨Ú ‹ÏÇ∞Óô ‹ôÙ∂ ÙIˆÇË ™Íåªã ËºMÚ£Ë ﬁôÙ£∂, Ò£¯£Ë ™ÔºÇËÆË¨˜ ´Ó£ü¡MÇ∞ã ∞PäHÜÏ ÙÒ£˘ ËºMÚ£Ë ‡ú˜∂. ﬁ∂ ´ı¡MÓÒ£Ë ﬁºÇË ∫ÆÚ£∂. ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ‡¯æËOô ﬁºÇ∞ã ‚ÖCÚ ı¨˜â∂ ™Ë£¥ÇË£Ó Ó°¨Ò¨Ú ËÏ° ‹ËüPM¥A¯∂. ‚ôÙ£ ﬁÏàFΩã IË ‹FËÒ£˘ ı¨˜â∂™Ë£¥Ç∞ã Ó°¨Ò¨Ú ‹∂ ‹P∫Ëä¥à∂A¯∂. ‹¨˘à∂ ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ÍÇFË¨˜ªã MKı£ÇËã ™ÍåÚ ‹∂ ‡ÓæA¯∂; Âäπ¨ÒJΩã Â°¡Ç™Ë£°¡ M¨˜æ™Ë£¥Ç∞ã Ó°¨ÒJΩã ‹∂ ‡ú˜∂. ﬁöı£¡ ™Íå¨ËJô, ‹∂ ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàF° ∫Ûá£Ï£˘ ÍÇFËO° eá¥ã eá¥ã GËøã ´Ò£Óô ´£Ç∞Ë˜£˘ ™ÔºÇËÆË¿Ç∞ ı¨Ë ™Íå∂, ‹ıüP° Ó°¨Ò¨Úªã bMÛÒ£Ç∞A¯∂" ‚°¡ M˜ÇA˘£ò.

∫ÓLô ´Òü´Ë£OÏäÜ¥ú˜ ÒàFÚ ıÉAÚ£˜òËú, ´Û£Í£ ΩÇÍã´òÇA° Ò£ÌıòË˜£Ë ﬁºÇËÒ£ÜÏ£òËú ‚°¯£Ωã, ﬁâÓ ıNı¨Ë¨Ú üPÚ ÓÉË¿¨ÏÚ ‹ÇË¨¯Ë¨˜àÓ£° ‹ıòËú ∂ôLÚÒ£Ë ™ıOä¥àF˘ò.

™Ó£NÙ£˜ ıòÇËã Ë£ÜÆÇ ™Ë£¥ÇËä¥ÓΩã, ‹™ÒKÇË „Ë£FàFÚàF° É∞ã

∫Ææ¨ÛÚ£Ë, GFÚ ıNı¨Ë ‹™ÒKÇË ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıàF° G¨Ùä£Ü¨Ï ıLª¡àFªú˜∂, ‡ÙË ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ∫¨¯Jô ‹Ó° ›FÇËà¨Ó ıLª¡àFªú˜∂, Òü¡ã ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ∫¨¯Ç´Ë ∫ø¨ÒÚ£Ë Âº π∂ ı£õæ ™Ë£¥à∂ú˜∂ ‚°¡ √¯ä¥ı¨Ó ›Û£å´ı£ã.

ﬁÓü∞ Fô √¡ıÓü∞ Ô£ã ‡ÙË ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ∫¨¯ªÏ° ‹™ÒKÇË£Mü∞ ﬁºâÓ ıÛÙ£ü¯˜MÙ£˘ ‡¯¨ı ›Û£Ú ´ıá¥ã. ÛwÚ πÛÜCJ° ∫°QÛMô, „Ë£FàFÚã ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ∫¨¯J° ‡ÑÍË£ÙËÜÏã, ‹Ó£ı∂ ´Í£ÍLÍ Ò£¡ÓΩÇË£˘ ı£JLô ‡ú˜∂ ‚°¡ ™ÙQ° √P˘£ò. Ü™Û£ÜvAJ° GÛâÓÛä πÛÜC üPÚ ∫°´˘£Ç∞, ÛwÚ£M° ÓQ¨Òä¥àÓäÜ¥ú˜ GÙ¨Ò¨Ú ËºàFü™Ë£á¥ ´Í£ÍLÍàFü∞ ÛwÚ£ Ç∞ıã ‹¨ÏÚMô¨Ù ‚°¯£Ωã, ∫°´˘ü¯ã ‹¨Ïâ∂ú˜ ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ™£º˜£Ó£ÛÉËú ‡¡FÚ£Ë Ç∞ıã ‹¨ÏâFºâÓ˘ ‚°¨Ó ‹ÆàÓ˜Ò£Ë ™Ë£áÆºâÓ∂. ‚˘´ı ÛwÚ πÛÜC ‡ÙË ´Í£ÍLÍä πÛÜCJ° ›ÛãÒ£Ë ﬁºÇ∞ã.

ﬁ¡FJô, ´£ôSMÇ∞Ë¿¨ÏÚ πÛÜC ∫°´˘£Ç∞ ‹¨ÏÚäÏMô¨Ù; ﬁºÓ£ã Àü¯£áÆ° ´£ÇAô, ‡üàF ÍÇFËO° √¥ÓÙ£˘ ı˜òÑC ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ∫¨¯J° WõÓ£° ﬁºâÓ∂. Ôã∫¨ÏÚ ›CKÚòËú ÔÒÇ∞ G¨˘æ¡à∂ı∂´£ô, ﬁ°¡ Âº ™Ó£Nô∏Üä πÛÜC ÔÏâ∂ ™Ë£áÆºÇA¯∂. ÛSÚä πÛÜC Ë£ÙàFü∞ ∫âFÚ∂ ‚°¯ ∫ÆMü∞ Ô£ã ıÛ∫ÆÚÒ£; ﬁÓ˘£ô ‹∂ ÓQ¨ÒäÜÆºÇË Óú˜äÜ¥ ‹Ó˘£ô πÛÜCJ° YÛNæ, vÏ£Ù£QÍàF° ‚øÑC Òü¡ã ‹¨Óà ™Ó£ÏÛâÓ∂ ‹¨˘à∂ã ÓMòÇË∫ÆÚ£Ó¨ı ‚°¡ ™Ë£ú˜äÏ ´ıá¥Ò£?

‹àÓ¨ËÚ ‹µ∞∫¨¯ ∫üPΩã ﬁÚâFÛËFJÙ£˘ ‹µ∞∫¨¯Ú£AM¥ã. ﬁâÓ ´ËúMÇ∞ M¨ÏJ¡äÓü∞ ﬁºÓ£ã Àü¯£áÆ° ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ∫¨¯ ™Ó£Ïòâ∂ ﬁºäÓü∞ ‚àÓ¨ËÚ ÒËàÓ£˘ ﬁˆäπË¿Ï° ÒQÓ∞Ùã ™Ó£ÏòπÜÆºâÓ∂ ‚°¨Ó £òàÓ£´Ù ´£∂ã.

‡üàF ÍÇFËú ı˜òÑC¨Ú ™Ó£ÏºA°¯˘ ‚°¯ ‡á¨Ò, ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıã Ó°¨˘ Ó£´˘ ‹Nà∂Ç ™Ë£á¥MÏMô¨Ù ‚°¯ Ë£ÛÌàÓ£ô Âº πÛÜCËÛ ∫°´˘£Ç¨Ë H¨ˆÚ£ÇAMÏ ∫ÆÚ£∂. ›˘£ô „° ‹àÓ¨ËÚ ∫°´˘£Ç∞ ‹¨ÏÚäÏ ∫ÆÚMô¨Ù ‚°¨Ó ‹Pâ∂™Ë£ú˜ ÔÒÇ∞ ‡ÓMÚ£Ë ﬁºÇA¯∂. ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıàF° ™Ó£ÏòÑCªã, ‡üàF ÍÇFËO° ﬁ°¬ã √¥ÓÙ£˘ ı˜òÑCªã Í£ÓËÒ£Ë ﬁºâÓ∂ ‹™ÒKÇË ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıàF° £KÚ ıL¨ÒJ˘£ôÓ£°.

‹¨˘à∂Ù ∞ø Ù∫¨¯ªã ™Ó£NÙ£˜ ıòÇËàF° ´£Û£ÜÏÉËú vÛ£LQÍ, YòFºàÓı£Ó Ó¨Ù¨ÒËO˘£ô ﬁºÓ£ã Àü¯£áÆô ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ∫¨¯¨Ú ÓÇË ¨ıäÓüË£Ë Ë£ÜÆÇ ™Ë£¥ÇËäÜÏF° ∫ÇAÚà∂ıà¨Ó Ù∫¨¯ªã ıLª¡àFªú˜∂. ﬁàÓ¨ËÚ Ë£ÜÆÇ™Ë£¥äπÇËú Òü¡ã ‹™ÒKÇË£M° É∞ ﬁıüPü∞ ﬁ¨Ï´ÚÚ£˘ ﬁ¨Ïà™Ó£Ïòπ üP ›Û£åı∂ ‹ıCÚÒ£∞ã.

1914ã ›áÆô ‡ÙËä ´£ò ™ıÆàÓ∂ ‚°∂ ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ∫¨¯Jô ﬁÚô£˘, ‹¨ÒFÚ£˘ ı˜òÑCJ° ∫Æ¨ı C¯äHà∂ Ë£ÜÆÚ´Ó£¥, ÍÕËä πÛÜC ÍË£äÓã ıâ∂MÜÏ¨Óªã Ë£ÜÆÚ∂. ›˘£ô ÛwÚ£¨ı ÓMÛ Òü¯ ﬁÏÉËOô ™Ó£NÙ£˜ ıòÇËã ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ıòÇËà¨Ó …ÇA ‚PÚ∫ÆÚMô¨Ù. ﬁ∂ Â°¡ã „üË˘´ı ∫Æı£˘ M˚Úã ‹ôÙ. ﬁFô ∫ÇAÚÒ£˘ Ë£ÛÌã ‹™ÒKÇË£ ´£Kô Ó¨ÙJ¥Óô ‚°¯ ∫Æ¨ı ‚¥àÓ∂ã, ´£ò ‚öı˜Mü∞ cúA°¯´Ó£ ‹âÓ˜Mü∞ ÍÕËä πÛÜCJ° ›à∂ ‹FËKàÓ∂ ‚°∂ã ﬁºâÓ∂. MôÍ¬¨ÏÚ πËõ™ü¯ 14 Ëºà∂Ëú ´£ôSMÇ ‹¨¯√ıΩÇ∞ M¨Ï ‚°¡ã ∫ø ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ∫¨¯J° ‡¡FÇ∞ã ÛwÚ πÛÜC ™Ë£¥àÓ ‹Ñ≤¡à∂ΩÇ∞ã M¨Ï ‚°´¯ ı¨ÛÚäÜÏ∂ ›∞ã. ‹™ÒKÇË Ó¨Ùf¥ ﬁôÙ£Òô ﬁºâÓ£ô, ´¸òÒQ ÍÒ£Ó£˘à¨Ó ´Ë£KJÛ£∂; ‰´Û£äHÚ ÍÇFËú ´£¨Û ™Ó£ÏòâFºÇ∞ã. ‹àÓ¨ËÚ ≈õG¨ÙJô ´£ò, ‹™ÒKÇËà Ó¨ÙfÜÆ˘£ô ‚°¨ÓMÏ ÍÕËä πÛÜCJ° ÕÙÒ£Ë ‚°¡ ∫ÆMü∞ ıâFºÇ∞ã.

∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ ıòÇËàF˘£ô G¨Ù¨Ò¨Ú ‡¡Fä¥àÓ ∫ÆâÓ∂; ›˘£ô ´£ºÇ∞ …á¥ÓÙ£Ë ﬁºâÓ ‚âÓä HÛÑC¨˘Ë¨˜ªã ‹Ó˘£ô bòà∂¨ıÇË ∫ÆÚMô¨Ù. 1920 ËO° ›ÛãàFô ™Ó£ÏòÑCÚ£˘ πÛÜC G¨Ù¨ÒÇË£˘ Í£àFÚä£¥Ëú ´¸òÒQJô ´Ó£°P˘. ﬁ∂ ‹Ç´Ï£ò 1923ô ÍâÓòäà¨Ó Ú°¥àÓ£Òô MÜÏÓ£ô, ´¸òÒQÚ ËãŒQvÜ ËÜCJ° ÓÚ£Ûü¯ G¨Ù ‹âÓ ÍË£äÓà¨Ó Âº ∫ÆMü∞ ™Ë£á¥ıâÓ∂. ›˘£ô ´¸òÒQ Òü¡ã ‰´Û£ä£¨ı eá¥ã ‡¡Fä¥àÓ Dawes Plan ‚°F° ÕÙã ‹™ÒKÇË£ Ó¨ÙJÜÆºÇË£MÜÏ£ô, ‹∂√Ï ÔÏâ∂ ™Ë£áÆºâÓ ›õâÓ ™ÔºÇËÆJô Âº GËõÑCÚ£ËàÓ£° ﬁºâFºÇ∞ã.

‚öı£PºâÓ´£FΩã, ´£KΩã ‹Ó¨˘à™Ó£ÏòâÓ Ë£ÙàFΩã ÍÕË ¸˘Ô£ÚËàF° Ë£ÜÆÇ ™Ë£¥àÓô ﬁôÙ£Òô ﬁºâFºâÓ£ô ‹™ÒKÇË£ „Ë£FàFÚã Ó¨ÙJÜÆºÇË ∫ÆÚ£Òô ´£JºÇ∞ã ‚°¨Ó ∞PäH¥ı∂ ∫ÇAÚÒ£˘∂.

‹àÓ¨ËÚ Ë£ÜÆÇ ™Ë£¥äπÇËú ´Ó£ü¡MàÓ ‹ÛCÚô G¨Ù¨ÒJô, ‹™ÒKÇË ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ‹¨Òäπ ∫¨¯J° ÙÒ£˘∂, ∞¡AÚ Ë£ÙàFü´Ë¬ã, G¨Ù¨Ò¨Ú ‡¡Fä¥à∂ã F¯¨˘Ç ™Ë£áÆºâÓ∂. ›˘£ô ‡ÙË ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıàF° ™£º˜£Ó£Û CÇËôË¨˜ ‹∂ bòÇË ∫ÆÚMô¨Ù; 6 ›á¥Ë¿Ç∞ú ‹¨ı ™ºÒâÓ G¨Ù ‚°¯ ™ÚKô ™ıOäÜÏ˘. ›J¬ã√Ï, ÓüË£LËä ™£º˜£Ó£Û ‡¡Fä£¥ ‚°∂ ´Í£MÚà Â°PÚàF° ™Ó£ÏòâÓ ÓQ¨Òä¥ÓΩÇ∞ã, vÛ£LQÍ ‹FË£Ûà∂ıàF° ‚øÑCÇ∞ã ™ºã ‹ÛCÚô M¨˜æË¨˜ „ü¥àFÚ∂Ï°, ﬁ∂ πFÓ£Ë G¡ıäÜÆºâÓ ËãŒQvÜ ‹AÙàF° HKæË¿Ç∞ã £KÚ ´ÍÓà¨Ó „ü¥àFÚ∂.

vÛ£LQÍ ËÜCËú ﬁÛáÏ£ã ‡ÙËä ´£ºÇ∞ä H° ‡ÙË ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ‹¨Òäπ ∫¨¯¨Ú ‡¡Fä¥à∂ã ı¨ËJô ∫ÇAÚÒ£˘ ‹ÛCÚô É¨ËÇ ™Ë£áÆºâÓ˘ ‚°Fô ´ËúMÇ∞ ﬁÏIô¨Ù. ›˘£ô Íòı´ÓÍ ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàF° ı˜òÑCÇ∞ ÓÇË ‹vFı£Ûà¨Ó ™Ë£¥Ç∞ã F¯¨Ò ‹™ÒKÇË£MÏã ﬁôÙ£Òô ﬁºâFºâÓ£ô, G¨Ù¨Ò IËÇ ËÆ˘Ò£Ëä ´£JºÇ∞ã. ´£ºÇ∞ Hâ¨ÓÚ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ™ÔºÇËÆ ›õâÓ Ó°¨ÒJô ﬁºâÓ ≈ˆLô, Ô£°Ë£ã ‹AÙàF° HKæËú, ™Ó£NÙ£˜ ıòÇËã, vÛ£LQÍ Òü¡ã YòFºàÓı£Ó Ó¨Ù¨ÒË¿Ï° ´Ò£ÓΩÇ∞ ıºã´£∂ Ó¨Ù¨ÒÇË£˘ ‹¨¯√ıô M¥ÓıÓü∞ ÓÇË ı£åäπÇË¨˜ ™üPºÇËÇ √¥ã.

Ò£¯£Ë, ‡ÙË ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ∫¨¯J° ‡¡Fä£¥, ‹™ÒKÇË£ „Ë£FàFÚàF° Wõ ‚°∂ ™Ó£NÙ£˜ò ıòÇËàF° e∂ ﬁàÓ¨ËÚ ËºMËO° ™Ó£ÏòâÓ ›FÇËà¨ÓÇ ËáÏ∂; ´ÒΩã Ô£°Ë£ã ‹AÙã ÓQ¨ÒäÜÏ∂; ﬁâÓ ‹HMºàF Ù FºàÓôı£Óä ´£Ç∞Ëú, HKæËú ›AÚıüP° ı˜òÑCJô HÛFLàÓ˘.

ﬁÛáÏ£ã ‡ÙËä ´£ºÇ∞ä H°, ∫Óô ‡ÙËä ´£ºÇ∞ Hâ¨ÓÚ Ë£Ùà¨Ó ´£ÙôÙ£∂, ‹™ÒKÇË£, vÛ£LQÍ, ÍÕË ¸˘Ô£ÚË Ó¨Ù¨ÒËO° Ë£ÜÆÇ ™Ë£¥äπÇË¨˜ ÔãH, Âº πFÚ ‡üàF∫¨¯J° ‡ºı£Ç∞˘Û£Ëæã ÂøÉË¨Òä£˜Û£Ëæã ﬁºâ∂ Âº πFÚ ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ıÑ ÍÒÙG¨Ù¨Ú ‡ºı£ÇA, ∫Óô ‡ÙËä ´£ºÇ∞ ∫° ‚øÑCªüPºâÓ ﬁÙ£MAÓ ÍKM° ıÛÙ£ü¡ iõÑC¨Ú ËÏÇË ∫ÆâÓ∂.

›˘£ô ﬁ°¡ G¨Ù¨Ò ‚°˘? ‹™ÒKÇË „Ë£FàFÚã ›FÇËã I∞âÓ ‡ÙË ÍÇFÚ£Ë ﬁºâÓ£Ωã, Êò ‡ÙËä ™£º˜£Û ÍÒÙG¨Ù¨Ú G¡ıÇ√ÆÚ F¯¬¨ÏÚ πFÚ ‡üàFJ° ›ÜC¨Ú ‹Ó˘£ô G¡ı ∫ÆÚMô¨Ù; ‹∂´£Ù´ı ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı∫¨¯ ı˜òÑCJ° πFÚ MKı£ÇË ËÜÏà¨Óªã ‹Ó˘£ô G¡ı∫ÆÚMô¨Ù. Ò£¯£Ë, Ó°¬¨ÏÚ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ÍKM° Ó£ÇËà¨Ó G¨¯æ ™Íåªã ı¨ËJô ‹∂ ﬁÛ£µı ıNı¨ËË¨˜ ™Ë£á¥ú˜∂. ﬁÛá¥ ›CKÚòËú ‚°˘ √P˘£Ωã, ‹àÓ¨ËÚ G¨Ùä£¥ „Ë£FàFÚÉË¿Ç∞ ﬁ¨Ï´ÚÚ£˘ ÃÍôËú ›õâ∂, bMÛÒ£∞ã ‚°¨ÓàÓ£° C¯äHà∂Ç Ë£Ü¥A¯∂.

™£º˜£Ó£Ûà ÓÏàFô, ‹™ÒKÇË GFÚàF° ›FÇËã ‚°∂ ıL¨ÒJ° ™ıOä£¥ ‹ôÙ; ‹∂ Âº ıÛÙ£ü¡ ™ÔºÇËÆJ° ™ıOä£¥Ó£°. GFÚ ÕÙÓ˘ã ™ºã ™ÍôıÇ ∞MäHü∞ ‡ÓæA¯∂; ›˘£ô ‹∂ IË ∫ÇAÚÒ£˘, ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ™£º˜£Ó£Ûã ∫øıFü∞ã ´Ó¨ıÚ£˘ ∞Mäπ ‚°¬ã G¨ÙJô Ë£µã´£∂, ™Ó£NÙ£˜ ıòÇËàFô ﬁºâ∂ ‚ÖCÚ ÒFä¨ ‹ËKÇ∞ã ™ÍÚLô ﬂ¥¥ıFô¨Ù. Ò£¯£Ë ´ı¡ ﬁÏàFô ﬁºâ∂ ‚ÖCÚ ÒFä¨ ‹ËKÇË ∫ü¥A¯∂. GFÚ ÕÙÓ˘ã ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı∫¨¯J° MKı£ÇË ı˜òÑCÇ∞ ∫üPΩã ´Ó¨ı ‚°¯£Ωã, ‹´Ó´ÔÛàFô ‹∂ ÂÜ¥áEÚ£ËàÓ£° ‡ú˜∂.

‹™ÒKÇË£ ﬁôÙ£MÜÏ£ô, Y˘£Mô „üÜ¥ú˜ ™Ó£NôÒÚÒ£ÇËã ‡ÙË ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı ÂøÉAü∞ Âº πFÚ ı£õæÇ ËÜÏà¨Ó ™Ë£¥ÇË ﬁÚΩÒ£? Y˘£Mü∞ ‡üàF¨Ú Ò£üPÚF° ÕÙã ™Ó£NÙ£˜ò ™ÍÙM˘ÉËOô ™Ë£á¥ıÛäÜÏ £KÚ ∞¨¯äπã, ´Í¨ıËO° ™ÍÚô∫¨¯ ﬁâFÚ£Mü∞ã ™Í°¯ ı¨ËJô ﬁÙ£ MAÓà¨Ó √ÜÏ£Ó£ ‚°¡Ó£° ı£FÏä¥ã.

‹àÓ¨ËÚ ı˜òÑC ‚¨Ó ‹OÇ∞ã ‚°¨Ó ›Û£å´ı£ã. ›ÛãÒ£Ë, Y˘ä ™£º˜£Ó£ÛàFô ‹Óü∞ IËä ™KÚ ı˜òÑC ´Ó¨ıä¥ã. ›˘£ô ﬁâÓ ıNı¨Ë ™Ó£ÏÉAÚæÏ° ‹∂ ‹™ÒKÇË£æÏ° ÃÍΩÇ∞ ıNı∞à∂MÜÏ∂. Y˘£ „üË˘´ı "Õ´Ù££Ú ´£ÜÆÚ£˜ò" ‚°¡ ∫àF¨ÛJÏäÜ¥MÜÏ∂.

´ÒΩã Y˘£M° ™Ó£NôÒÚÒ£ÇËäÏô ‚°∂ ‹¨˘à∂ ∫ÇAÚ ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı Ô£¥ËOΩã ıòÇË ‡¯æË¨˜ Ó¨ÏÇ∞ ‡Ü¥àFªú˜∂; ‹É™ËôÙ£ã ™Ó£NÙ£˜ ıòÇËã ‡ÙËâÓøMÚ ™£º˜£Ó£Û ∫¨¯J° M¨˜æË¨˜ ‚Fò™Ë£á¥ú˜∂. ‡Ó£ÛÌÒ£Ë ‹™ÒKÇË£Mô Delphi G¡ı˘àÓ£ô ™Ë£á¥ıÛäÜ¥ú˜ Ò£™ºã ·FÚ ™ıÜ¥ÇËú ‚âÓ ‹˜Mü∞ ·FÚ Òü¡ã ÍÕË G¨Ù¨ÒËú e∂ IËà bMÛÒ£˘ ‹øàÓÉËú ıâ∂MÜÏ˘ ‚°ÓüË£˘ ™ıOä£Ï£Ë ﬁºÇA°¯˘. ﬁâÓ ‹øàÓã Êå◊FÚ FÜÏÉË¨˜ ‹Ëü¡ıÓü∞ ‡â∂Óô ™¡ıFô HÛFLä£ªú˜∂; ‚É™ËôÙ£ã ﬁ°¬ã ‡ú˜´Ó£ ‹É™ËôÙ£ã ‹™ÒKÇË Ó˜à¨Ó ™Ë£á¥ú˜ G¡ı˘ÉËú Íòı´ÓÍ ‹˜Mô ´£ÜÆJ¥ıÓüË£Ë ﬁ∂ Ô¨Ï™¡A¯∂. ‰´Û£ä£Mô, HKÜÆw HÛÓÒ ÒâFK ´Ï£Q H´˜Úò YòFºàÓ ı¨ËËO° ´Ó¨ı¨Ú ≤ÜÆÇ Ë£ÜÆªú˜£ò; ‹Ó£ı∂ Y˘£æÏ° ´£ÜÆJÏ ´ıá¥ã ‚°∂, ÍÕË ÔÙàFÜÏÉË¨˜ ÓËòàÓô ‚°∂ ‹Ó° ™£ºú. ›vF´ÛLÚ£Mô HÛÓÒ ÒâFK ´¸£° ´˝£ıòÜ ™Ó£Nô ‡¯æËú ∫¨¯Jô ™ºã Ò£¡ÓôËú ‹á¨ÒJô ™Ë£á¥ıÛäÜ¥ú˜F° Ë£ÛÌã Y˘£, ﬁâFÚ£ ›AÚıü¡Ï° ´£ÜÆJô ﬂ¥™Ë£¥ÇË ´ıá¥ã ‚°ÓüË£ËàÓ£° ‚°¡ M˜ÇAªú˜£ò.

ﬁ¨ÓÚ¥à∂ Y˘£M´Ù´Ú G¨Ù¨Ò¨Ú Ë£á´£ã. Íòı´ÓÍ ™Ó£NÙ£˜ ıòÇËã ‚°¯ G¨ÙÇ∞ IôLÚQ° F°ÒÏÉ∞ ÒÇËú ﬂòÇËäÜ¥ú˜˘ò. Óü´£¨ÓÚ G¨ÙJô, ™£º˜£Ó£Û ı˜òÑC ™Ó£Ïºã ı¨Û, ‹Û≤ üPÚ Ôä£¨ÍË¿ã ™Ó£Ïºã. ›˘£ô ™Ó£Nô∫¨¯¨ÒÚÒ£ÇËô ´£Ç∞ ÓMòÇË ∫ÆÚ£Òô ™£º˜£Ó£Û ‹ÛCÚô ‹FòÑCË¿Ç∞ ı¨Ë™Íåªã MÓàFô ‹∂ M¨ÛMô Ò£¡ÓΩÇ∞ ‡Ü¥ã. 19ã Àü¯£áÆ° ﬁ¡FJô ÛwÚ£Mô ™Ó£NôÒÚà∂Ï° ﬁ¨ÌâÓ ™Ë£âÓOä¨ ËáÏ£ô, Y˘£Mô ‹àÓ¨ËÚ ´£Ç∞ ﬁ°¬ã ÒËàÓ£˘ ‹˜Mô ıÛÇ√¥ã ‚°¡Ó£° πÙ˘£∞ã.

Íòı´ÓÍ ‡¯æËú ™ºAÚ ‹øàÓÉËO° Ó°¨Ò¨Ú ™Ë£á¥ú˜˘. ‡Ï˘Æ ∞FJô Y˘£Mô Ó£ÇËã ‡ú˜∂ ‚°¡ ÒÜ¥I°P, Y˘£Mü∞ã ‡ÙA° Òü¯ ∞FË¿Ç∞ã ﬁ¨Ï´Ú ‡ú˜ ‡¯æ, ﬁÙàb° ‹™ÒKÇË£, ÒàFÚ AˆÇ∞, ‰´Û£ä£ ´£°¯ıüPô, ÕÙä ™£ºÜËú, Íâ¨ÓËú, ‹ÛCÚô ™Íôı£Ç∞ ›AÚ¨ı üPÚ ÃÍôËú M¨˜ªã; „üË˘´ı M¨˜â∂ú˜˘. Y˘£ Âö™ı£º ∫ÇAÚ ÍÇFªÏ¬ã ™Ë£á¥ú˜ ‡¯æËú ‹ıü¡Ï° ÃÍôË¨˜ ‹FËä¥à∂ã. ‡Ó£ÛÌÒ£Ë, ﬂÛ£Ç ´£ºÇ∞ã πwS° "ÚÉËÛı£ÓàF° eÓ£˘ ´£ºÇ∞ã" Y˘£ GâÓ¨˘Úü¯ ›ÓÛ¨ı ™Ë£¥àÓ£Ωã, ´˝£ıòÜ ‹ÛÍ£ÉËã, ‹™ÒKÇË£Mü∞ Y˘£æÏ° ¨Óı£° ™Ó£Ïò£˘ ÃÍô „üÜÏ£ô, ›vF´ÛLÚ£ ‹Ó°H° ‹Eı∞à∂ Gü∞ã ‚°¡ G¨˘à∂MÏÇ √Ï£∂ ‚°¡ ‚ÑÍKà∂ú˜£ò.

ıÛÙ£¡ ∫ø¨ÒÚ£Ë GœHà∂ú˜Æ, Âº πFÚ ™Ó£Nü∂¨¯ ÍÇF ‚øÑCª¡Óô ‚°∂ ﬁºÇ∞ã ÙÉËO° ÍÒÙG¨Ù¨Ú ∞ˆäàFü∞ ‡Ü¥àF, „Ë£FàFÚÉË¿Ç∞ ﬁ¨Ï´ÚÚ£˘ ÃÍôË¨˜ªã ´£ÜÆË¨˜ªã ‚KŒÜÏæã ™Íåªã. Âº ∞PäHÜÏ Ë£ÙàFô, ﬁ∂ ´£ò ‚°¯ ™ıÆä¨ ‚ü¥à∂ã; Ë£Ü¥IÛ£áÆàÓ˘àFü∞ ﬁ¯ÉËæã ı¨Ë ™Íåªã. ™Ó£NÙ£˜ ıòÇËã ﬁ¨Ó ‚öı£¡ ‚Fò™Ë£ú˜ ´ıá¥ã? ﬁÉ∞àÓ£° Ô£ã ∫ÇAÚÒ£˘ HÛÑC¨˘Ú£˘ ‹ÛCÚô ∫°´˘£ÇAü∞ ıºA´¯£ã; ‡ÙË G¨Ù¨ÒJ° Âö™ı£º √¡£Ü¨Ïªã ™Ó£Ïòâ∂ ∞ä£åâ∂ ‹∂ ı˜òÇËäÏ ´ıá¥ã; ‹Ó° Õ´Ù££Ú ‡Ü∞PäπÇËú ‹PÚäÏ ´ıá¥ã. ﬁÉ∞Ó£° ‡ÙË ´Í£ÍLÍ ı¨Ùà Ó˜ã ıºÉË£ÙàFô ›ü¯ ﬁºÇ∞ã EËO° ﬁÓÚàÓ£˘ã ‡ú˜∂.

‚Ò∂ ∞ä£åæ H™ÛÜÏ° ◊Üv ∫¨¯ ‡¨Ïâ∂ 35 ›á¥Ë¿Ç∞ H°˘ò, ﬁÛáÏ£ã ‡ÙÇ´£ºÇ∞ã H° „ü¥àÓäÜÆºâÓ ÍÒG¨Ù ∫PâÓ H°˘ò, ‡ÙË ∫ÓÙ£Oà∂ı∫¨¯ Âº πFÚ ÍÒÙG¨Ù¨Ú G¡ı ﬁÚÙ£Ó G¨ÙJô ‡ú˜∂ ‚°∂ ÒÜ¥I°P, ‹Ó° ∫Ûá£¥Ëú ﬁ°¬ã ›õâÓ ÍÒYÛü¯ Ó°¨ÒÇË£˘ G¨Ù¨ÒË¨˜ ´Ó£ü¡Mà∂Ç ™Ë£áÆºÇA°¯˘ ‚°∂ã ™ÓKÚıºã. 1870ô ﬁºâ∂ 1914 ı¨ÛJÙ£˘ ‡ÙËâÓøMÚ ∫¨¯ ‚°∂ ´£òËú Òü¡ã πÛÜCË¿Ç∞ ıN´Ë£LÚ∂. Óü´£¨ÓÚ ‡ÙËâÓøMÚ ∫¨¯J° ËÜÏàF° M¨˜æã Íü¡ã ∞¨¯MÙ£ ™ıÆäπà Ó°¨Ò¨ÚàÓ£° ™Ë£áÆºÇ∞ã. ‹âÓ G¨Ù¨ÒÇË£ËàÓ£° Ô£ã ∂ôLÚÒ£˘ ÓÚ£Kä¨ ´Òü™Ë£ú˜ ´ıá¥ã.

By Nick Beams 28 February 2006

By Nick Beams
28 February 2006