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Analysis : Middle
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Iraqi constitution delayed again amid deep differences
By James Cogan
23 August 2005
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A vote on a new constitution for Iraq was delayed last night
for another three days due to the bitter, fundamental differences
among the various political factions in the parliament.
The US-dictated Transitional Administrative Law (TAL) currently
in force in Iraq stipulated that if a draft was not accepted by
August 15, then the parliament had to be dissolved and new elections
called. A referendum is supposed to take place on October 15,
and elections on December 15.
Twenty minutes before the first deadline elapsed, more than
two-thirds of the legislators voted to amend the TAL and extend
the deadline for an extra week. Last night, the dissolution of
parliament was bypassed with another manoeuvre. An incomplete
draft was tabled just before midnight, enabling the speaker to
declare the deadline had been met and to schedule a vote for Thursday.
There is little prospect that a consensus among the ruling
factions will be reached. The draft that was tabled is a thoroughly
sectarian document drawn up behind the backs of the masses. It
was drafted entirely by the Shiite Muslim fundamentalist parties
and the Kurdish nationalist bloc, the two largest factions in
the parliament, in back-room negotiations with the US ambassador
in Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad. Sunni representatives were excluded.
The Bush administration appears to have abandoned the perspective
of winning over elements of the traditional Sunni Arab ruling
class and former Baathist regime. For months, US officials have
pressured the Shiite fundamentalists to compromise with the Sunni
elites in the hope they would use their influence to curb the
armed resistance to the occupation.
The document presented last night makes no such concessions.
Instead, it provocatively aims to entrench American economic and
military domination over the country by the reduction of Iraq
into a loose federation, in which a layer of the Shia establishment
and the Kurdish elite would benefit at the expense of the Sunni
ruling class and the Iraqi masses as a whole. The constitution
establishes the basis for the privatisation of Iraqs state-owned
oil industry and will enable a puppet government to sanction long-term
US military bases.
The constitution would set in place a weak central government
and powerful autonomous regions that would siphon off most of
the revenue from the countrys oil. Iraqs 18 provinces
would have the right to conduct referenda on whether to form or
join a region. While the central government would continue to
receive the revenues from currently operating oil fields, the
regions would be ceded control over all new production in their
jurisdiction. Most of Iraqs known oil reserves have never
been tapped.
Reportedly under intense pressure from Khalilzad, the Kurdish
nationalists have dropped their demand for self-determination,
which was viewed across the Middle East as the first step toward
the establishment of a separate Kurdish nation-state in northern
Iraq. They will maintain their regional government in the north,
however, and seek to expand it to include the province of Al Tamim
and the city of Kirkuk, where there are substantial oil fields.
The US was adamant that Kurdish self-determination be excluded
because it threatens to provoke tensions with Iraqs neighbours.
Turkey, in particular, has warned that it will take military action
against any attempt to establish an independent Kurdish state.
Moreover, if the Kurds are granted the right to self-determination,
it could trigger similar demands among Shiites in the south, leading
to a further fracturing of the country.
The proposed draft constitution would allow Shiite parties
to form one or more regional authorities in the south where over
50 percent of Iraqs oil reserves are located. The Supreme
Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), one of the
two main Shiite fundamentalist organisations in the parliament,
has called for a Shiite-dominated autonomous region consisting
of nine southern provinces, and covering nearly half the countrys
territory and population.
The Shiite fundamentalists and Kurdish parties are seeking
to use their current dominance to keep long-term control over
the central government and therefore of the US-created Iraqi military
and internal security forces. The draft constitution does not
include demands by Sunni representatives and secular politicians
for the president and prime minister to be elected by a two-thirds
majority vote, instead of a simple majority. Such a clause would
strengthen the position of the Sunni minority after new elections.
To ensure a document was drafted, Washington pressured the
secular Kurdish parties to drop their opposition to the demand
of the Shiite fundamentalists for a greater constitutional role
for the Islamic clergy and Islamic law. The draft tabled last
night would place clerics on the Supreme Court and enable people
to choose to have Islamic religious courts preside over issues
such as marriage, divorce and inheritance.
While this would have little impact in the Kurdish zone, in
the areas dominated by the Shiite fundamentalists it would have
far-reaching implications for women. Womens associations
demonstrated in Baghdad on Sunday against the prospect of the
equal rights that were guaranteed in the previous constitution
being stripped away. Protest organiser Yanar Mohammad told the
Guardian: We are fighting to avoid becoming second-class
citizens.
A Kurdish representative Mahmoud Otham told the Washington
Post: It seems like the Americans want to have a constitution
at any cost. It is not good to have a constitution that would
limit the liberties of people, of human rights and freedoms.
While there will be three more days of horse-trading, the Shia
and Kurdish blocs appear to be intent on using their parliamentary
majority to ram through the constitution. Sunni Muslim organisations,
supporters of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and the group led
by former interim prime minister Iyad Allawi have declared they
will vote against the tabled document and work for its rejection
at the referendum.
In Iraq and more broadly in the Middle East, the document is
provoking opposition. The resource-poor western and central regions
of Iraq, where the bulk of the Sunni population live, would be
deprived of substantial revenues under the federal structure.
Further alienating the Sunnis, the constitution would proscribe
former senior members of the Baath Party from holding political
positions. In many ways, the Bush administration has created a
situation where the Sunni establishment has nothing to lose by
throwing its weight behind the armed resistance to the US military
and the government.
At the same time, Sunni leaders are urging their supporters
to take part in the referendum and elections instead of boycotting
them. The main Sunni organisation, the Association of Muslim Scholars
(AMS), is calling for Sunnis to register. Last week, it was joined
by six of the most prominent Sunni armed resistance organisations,
which issued a joint statement calling for all Iraqis to register
to vote so as to defeat the constitution at the referendum.
Sections of the Shiite elite are also opposed to the breakup
of the country and to Iranian influence in southern Iraq. On Friday,
thousands of Shiite Arab supporters of Moqtada al-Sadr demonstrated
in Baghdad against federalism, alongside Sunnis brought into the
streets by the AMS. Last year, the Sadrist movement took up arms
against the US military. A representative in the parliament declared:
Sadrs concern is that Iraq must be united, not divided.
He is calling for unity and against the occupation.
Sunni legislator Salih Mutlak warned the Washington Post
that the streets will rise up if the constitution
was pushed through. Even if the parliament does finally pass the
draft, there is no guarantee that a referendum would approve the
constitution. Under the TAL rules, a vote against the referendum
by a two-thirds majority in three provinces is enough to ensure
its defeat.
See Also:
Further into the Iraqi quagmire: US intensifies
repression
[20 August 2005]
Despite US pressure, no agreement reached
on Iraqi constitution
[16 August 2005]
Sunni elite moves toward an
accommodation with US occupation of Iraq
[27 May 2005]
US issues more demands on
Iraqi government to include former Baathists
[20 May 2005]
US demands Iraq's new government
repudiate "de-Baathification"
[4 May 2005]
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